Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
509 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the end
of the week as the remnants of TS Harvey bring increasing
moisture to the region. Drier air will filter into the region by
late in the weekend with temperatures near normal. A cold front
will approach from the west around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey will lift from the lower
Mississippi River Valley toward the Tennessee River Valley
bringing increased moisture. A warm front over central GA this
afternoon will lift north across the area tonight. Already
seeing moderate instability over the CSRA into the Central
Midlands. Mid-level short wave energy combined with moderate
instability and Precipitable water values between 2.0 and 2.3
inches allowing convection to develop this afternoon. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected into the
evening. Could see a few severe storms...especially across the
southern Midlands and CSRA where instability and shear is
greatest. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat. An
isolated tornado threat cannot be ruled out. Afternoon
temperatures will peak in the lower 80s north to near 90 south.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the early portions of tonight, before becoming more
isolated late tonight. With the energy associated with the
remnants of Harvey rotating around the eastern side of the low,
and with a weak warm front lingering across the Midlands
overnight...cannot rule out a few strong storms tonight,
especially over the western portions of the forecast area.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, the remnants of Harvey will push mainly over the TN
Valley, while a cold front begins pushing southward towards the
forecast area through the day. With the increased shear along
the front as it moves into the area, expect another round of
stronger storms to develop during the afternoon hours. There is
a risk of severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours.
The latest Day 2 severe weather outlook from SPC has much of the
northern half of the state in Slight Risk with the rest of the
state in Marginal Risk for Friday. The cold front should move
through the area late Friday night, with storms still possible
along the front. Some drier air may begin filtering into the
area from the west late Friday night.

Temperatures Friday will range from the lower to middle 80s
north to near 90 across the southern Midlands and CSRA. most of
the area in warm sector. Readings on Friday night slightly
cooler with temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Drier airmass moving into the area behind the cold front on
Saturday will allow for diminished rain chances as the day goes
on. Dry weather expected to continue into Tuesday as high
pressure settles into the region. Latest GFS indicating
moisture return on Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the next
upper system. Temperatures generally close to normal Saturday
through Wednesday, and a little below normal Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There will be a moist south flow between high pressure off the
Southeast Coast and the remnants of Harvey lifting northeastward
into Tennessee. There will also be a front mainly just north of
the terminals. The pattern will result in numerous thunderstorms
mainly during the afternoon and areas of stratus at night and
during the morning. Wind may limit late night and early morning
fog. The NAM and GFS MOS plus SREF guidance indicated mainly IFR
ceilings late tonight and early Friday morning. Confidence was
less during the rest of the TAF period with timing uncertainty
associated with scattered to numerous thunderstorms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread status and fog may occur
Friday night into Saturday morning. Otherwise, no significant
impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-010800-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight may
bring strong winds and brief heavy rainfall to the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Friday as the
remnants of Harvey move north of the area, and a cold front moves
southward. Isolated severe storms with strong winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW NEW ELLENTON       33.43N 81.71W
08/31/2017                   AIKEN              SC   UTILITY COMPANY

            REPORTED A LARGE BRANCH THAT DOWNED A POWER
            LINE ALONG DRY BRANCH ROAD NEAR NEW
            ELLENTON.

&&

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
503 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW ELLENTON            33.42N 81.69W
08/31/2017                   AIKEN              SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED A TREE DOWN IN THE
            TOWN OF NEW ELLENTON AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            VIRGINIA AVENUE AND COFFEE STREET.

&&

LCV

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