Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1036 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from the Atlantic westward through the
northern Gulf of Mexico through Independence Day. North of the ridge
some troughing will be in the forecast area. The pattern supports
seasonal hot conditions with a chance of mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms which developed in the Upstate and Piedmont have
moved eastward into the northern Midlands and Catawba regions.
Additional storms from NE GA will move eastward possibly
entering the western Midlands this evening. Storms should weaken
after sunset and then dissipate before midnight. Moderate
potential instability and dry air aloft will pose a threat for
damaging winds from thunderstorms in these areas. Elsewhere,
isolated showers or thunderstorms can be expected. Cloud cover
overnight from decayed convection will keep temperatures in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface ridging will continue from the Atlantic westward
through the northern Gulf of Mexico. North of the ridge, lee-
side surface troughing will be in the forecast area. The region
will be near the southern periphery of broad mid-level
troughing with a series of shortwave troughs brushing the area.
Convergence into the surface trough and strong heating plus
upper lift at times supports thunderstorms.

The models show some h5 shortwave ridging and h85 westerly flow
Sunday. The NAM and GFS MOS have been consistent with low pops
Sunday. The models have trended with more defined 5h shortwave
troughing Monday and Tuesday. MOS pops have trended upward those
days. The models indicate moderate instability each day with
surface-based LI values around -7. A few of the thunderstorms
may contain strong wind.

Temperatures may be highest Sunday with less thunderstorm
coverage. Followed the guidance consensus temperatures and
forecasted highs mainly in the middle 90s Sunday, and lower 90s
Monday and Tuesday. The MOS supports heat index values peaking
near 100 each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF show surface ridging extending from the Atlantic
westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico with lee-side troughing in
the forecast area during much of the medium-range period. Broad
upper trough is forecast to become more pronounced in the region
during the period. The pattern supports scattered to numerous
thunderstorms. Followed the guidance consensus and forecasted chance
pops each day. The GFS and ECWMF MOS have near normal temperatures
during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period.

Currently monitoring lingering scattered convection over
portions of the Midlands and CSRA late this evening. Some of
this convection may affect several TAF sites until around 04Z-
05Z so will mention thunder until then. Convection should
slowly diminish by 05Z. Overnight clouds will remain over the
region with southwesterly winds around 5 mph. Have kept cigs VFR
overnight due to winds and limited moisture in the near surface
layer without rainfall. Winds will be southwesterly through
02/15z...then veer to westerly for the remainder of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in late
night/early morning stratus/fog, along with scattered mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorms each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
323 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-020730-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
323 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E NEWBERRY            34.28N 81.55W
07/01/2017                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN NEAR MM 78 WESTBOUND ON I-26.

&&

BC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1034 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NW EDGEFIELD          33.87N 82.00W
07/01/2017                   EDGEFIELD          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EDGEFIELD COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED TREES AND
            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 25.

&&

AWP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1052 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NNW POMARIA           34.39N 81.47W
07/01/2017                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT SC 34 AND RINGER ROAD.

&&

BC

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