Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
204 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall near the forecast area today
through Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms likely in advance
of the front. The cold front will finally be moving east of the
region by Thursday, with drier and cooler air taking hold for the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level trough will continue to deepen over the central
and eastern CONUS. A stalled frontal boundary located across NC
leaving the local area in the warm sector ahead of an approaching
cold front. Lifted Index values are around -5 and surface based
CAPE is near 3000 J/kg. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed and coverage will increase this evening. Shear is only
around 25 kts, but SPC has the entire area outlooked for a
marginal risk of severe storms, with strong winds being the
biggest threat. Additionally, precipitable water values around 2
inches will allow for widespread moderate rain, with locally heavy
rain possible. Several Flash Flood Warnings and Advisories have
already been issued. Periodic heavy rain can be expected through
the night, and based on heavy rain potential a Flash Flood Watch
will remain in effect for the entire area through Wednesday night.

Afternoon high will be generally be in the 80s with overnight lows
in the 60s. Winds will mostly be light and southerly, except
gusty and erratic in vicinity of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Flash flood watch posted due to increased threat for heavy rain
associated with stalled frontal boundary and anomalously high
precipitable water. There is also a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms especially in the south Midlands and CSRA
associated with strengthening low level jet 40 to 50 kts early
in the day and possible weak meso-low tracking northeast along
the front through the afternoon...

Upper trough over the upper Midwest diving southeast into the
lower Mississippi valley during the period. Several short wave
troughs will rotate through the base of the trough and track
northeast into the Carolinas and Georgia. The surface frontal
boundary will move into central SC and east central Georgia
early Tuesday. The models appear to suggest a surge of moisture
early in the day with precipitable water near 2 inches. Short
wave trough moving through the area along with a weak surface
low/meso low should lead to numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms in the morning through early afternoon. A few of
these storms may be severe...especially south of the front in
the south Midlands and CSRA. Concern with enhanced 0-1 km SR
Helicity southeast through the afternoon. But the main threat
remains heavy rain due to training of storms near stalled front.
WPC has region in slight risk of excessive rainfall. There may
be a lull late in the day as stronger short waves move to the
north and east. However...air mass will be moderately unstable
and front remains in the area focusing low level convergence.
The front may move north to near the SC/NC border during the
overnight and the rain may diminish somewhat as short waves move
to the northeast...but air mass remains moist and unstable.

Another surge of moisture on Wednesday ahead of cold front and
the flash flood threat continues along with marginal severe
weather threat. Mos guidance consensus used for temperatures.

QPF amounts through Wednesday night of 2.5 to 3 inches with
locally higher amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The front should be east of the area Thursday, but with cold
temperatures aloft the area may still see isolated showers
through the afternoon. Drier and cooler air should then spread
over the region for the end of the week but warming again by
weekend. A front to the north may move south into the area late
in the weekend resulting in isolated afternoon convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Variable conditions through the TAF period.

With a frontal boundary approaching from the west and deep
moisture across the area, scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms will continue this evening. Rain chances will
increase overnight with steady rain expected through Tuesday
morning. Restrictions will be variable and IFR conditions can be
expected at times in moderate to heavy rain. Gusty winds and
frequent lightning can also be expected this evening in storms.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions expected in scattered
to widespread convection Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With areas of heavy rain possible across the river basin in the
Upstate and Midlands during the next 24-36 hrs moderate rises
are expected on the area rivers. This may lead to river flooding
and will be monitored closely.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ015-016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
349 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-230800-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
349 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible through tonight. This may
cause localized flooding across the area, especially in low lying and
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday.
This will also have the potential to cause localized flooding across
the area, especially in low lying and poor drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
313 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E WEST COLUMBIA       33.99N 81.07W
05/22/2017                   LEXINGTON          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADWAYS IN WEST
            COLUMBIA.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
315 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE WEST COLUMBIA     34.00N 81.06W
05/22/2017                   LEXINGTON          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN AT BUFF STREET
            AND SUNSET IN WEST COLUMBIA.

&&

RC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
347 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N SALUDA              34.04N 81.77W
05/22/2017                   SALUDA             SC   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON BUTLER ROAD, A
            POWER LINE DOWN ON LONG ROAD, AND A TREE
            LIMB DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON NEWBERRY
            HIGHWAY NEAR CHURCH ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

JAQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
353 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW WOODFIELDS        34.04N 80.94W
05/22/2017                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING ON PERCIVAL ROAD AT
            NORTHSHORE ROAD AT GILLS CREEK.

&&

AWP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
405 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

SCZ030-222045-
Aiken-
405 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017

...A THUNDERSTORMs WILL AFFECT NORTH and West AIKEN COUNTY...

At 400 PM EDT, showers and thunderstorms extended through the
interstate 20 area of northern and western Aiken county. Movement
was northeast near 15 mph.

Some of the storms will contain very heavy rain with ponding of
water in poor-drainage areas. Some of the storms may also contain
wind gusts near 40 mph and small hail.

Do not attempt to drive on flooded roads. It takes little water
to move a vehicle off the road and into deeper water.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield and North.

LAT...LON 3384 8157 3373 8145 3372 8145 3346 8189
      3355 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 221DEG 16KT 3373 8162