Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Watches in 2017

Winter Storm Watch 5, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 4, 201710 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm watch at Dec 4, 2017, 3:38 AM EST for 10 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 6, 2017, 3:00 AM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 4, 2017, 3:38 AM EST (08:38 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 6, 2017, 3:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 5, 2017, 1:01 PM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-12-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-12-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 61 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
883 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

706 
WWUS41 KBUF 040838
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

NYZ001-002-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171207T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute on 
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties. Greatest snow amounts
  expected to be in far southern Niagara County and southern and 
  central Orleans County.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times, including the morning and evening commute on
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. 

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches 
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest snow amounts
  expected from central Jefferson County to northern Lewis County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T2300Z-171208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches 
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. Greatest snow amounts expected across Southern Erie 
  and western Wyoming counties, and also far northern Chautauqua 
  and far northwest Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-041645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171207T0300Z-171208T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
338 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions at times. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest snow amounts expected in far
  northern Oswego County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/CHURCH
6 follow-up statements
771 
WWUS41 KBUF 041456
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
956 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

NYZ001-002-042300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171207T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
956 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute on 
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties. Greatest snow amounts 
  expected to be in far southern Niagara County and southern and 
  central Orleans County.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-042300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
956 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times, including the morning and evening commute 
  on Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-042300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
956 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest snow amounts 
  expected from central Jefferson County to northern Lewis 
  County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-042300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T2300Z-171208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
956 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows. Locally two feet
  or more is possible for locations in the Buffalo Southtowns. 

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. Greatest snow amounts expected across Southern Erie 
  and western Wyoming counties, and also far northern Chautauqua 
  and far northwest Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-042300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171207T0300Z-171208T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
956 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions at times. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  10 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest snow amounts expected in far 
  northern Oswego County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$
080 
WWUS41 KBUF 041956
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
256 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

NYZ001-002-050400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171207T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
256 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute on 
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties. Greatest snow amounts 
  expected to be in far southern Niagara County and southern and 
  central Orleans County.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-050400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
256 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times, including the morning and evening commute 
  on Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-050400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
256 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest snow amounts 
  expected from central Jefferson County to northern Lewis 
  County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-050400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T2300Z-171208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
256 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows. Locally two to
  three feet possible for locations in the Buffalo Southtowns.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. Greatest snow amounts expected across Southern Erie 
  and western Wyoming counties, and also far northern Chautauqua 
  and far northwest Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-050400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171207T0300Z-171208T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
256 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions at times. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  10 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest snow amounts expected in far 
  northern Oswego County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Apffel
325 
WWUS41 KBUF 050240
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
940 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

NYZ001-002-051045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171207T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
940 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions, including during the morning commute on 
  Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties. Greatest snow amounts 
  expected to be in far southern Niagara County and southern and 
  central Orleans County.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-051045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
940 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times, including the morning and evening commute 
  on Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-051045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
940 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest snow amounts 
  expected from central Jefferson County to northern Lewis 
  County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-051045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T2300Z-171208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
940 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. Locally 
  two to three feet possible for locations in the Buffalo 
  Southtowns.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. Greatest snow amounts expected across Southern Erie 
  and western Wyoming counties, and also far northern Chautauqua 
  and far northwest Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-051045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171207T0300Z-171208T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
940 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions at times. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  10 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest snow amounts expected in far 
  northern Oswego County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

TMA
072 
WWUS41 KBUF 050845
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
345 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

NYZ001-002-051645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171207T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
345 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible from late tonight through
  Wednesday evening. Travel conditions may be difficult at times,
  including during the morning and evening commute on Wednesday. 
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are possible in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties, mainly in the extreme
  southern portions of each county.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Wednesday evening. The heavy
  snow is not expected to be continuous, but will come in several
  rounds.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-051645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
345 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible from late tonight through
  late Thursday night. Travel may be very difficult at times,
  including during the morning and evening commute on Wednesday. 
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are possible in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Thursday night. The heavy
  snow is not expected to be continuous, but will come in several
  rounds.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-051645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
345 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible from Wednesday morning
  through Friday morning. Travel may be very difficult at times. 
  Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches are possible in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest amounts across
  central and southeast Jefferson County, and northern portions of
  Lewis County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-051645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T2300Z-171208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
345 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible from Wednesday evening
  through late Thursday night. Travel may be very difficult at 
  times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16 inches are possible 
  in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. Greatest snow amounts across Southern Erie and western
  Wyoming counties, and the northern portions of Chautauqua and
  Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-051645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171207T0300Z-171208T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
345 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible from Wednesday evening
  through Friday morning. Travel conditions may be difficult at
  times. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible 
  in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county, mainly just the far northern portion of
  the county.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK/CHURCH
846 
WWUS41 KBUF 051348
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
848 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

NYZ001-002-052200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171207T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
848 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel may be very
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches 
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans counties, mainly in the extreme 
  southern portions of each county.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Wednesday evening. The heavy
  snow is not expected to be continuous, but will come in several
  rounds. Travel conditions may be difficult at times, including 
  during the morning and evening commute on Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-052200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
848 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel may be very
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches 
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Thursday night. The heavy
  snow is not expected to be continuous, but will come in several
  rounds. Travel may be very difficult at times, including during
  the morning and evening commute on Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-052200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
848 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel may be very 
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches 
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest amounts across 
  central and southeast Jefferson County, and northern portions 
  of Lewis County.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-052200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T2300Z-171208T0900Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
848 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel may be very 
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16 inches 
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. Greatest snow amounts across Southern Erie and 
  western Wyoming counties, and the northern portions of 
  Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ006-052200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171207T0300Z-171208T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
848 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel conditions may 
  be difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego county, mainly just the far northern portion of 
  the county.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very 
  difficult travel at times, including very low visibility and 
  deep snow cover on roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Apffel
568 
WWUS41 KBUF 051801
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

NYZ001-002-051915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171207T0300Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

Heavy snow is no longer expected in the watch area. There still 
will be periods of light to moderate lake effect snow at times.

$$

NYZ006-051915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171207T0300Z-171208T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

Heavy snow is no longer expected in the watch area. There still
will be periods of light to moderate lake effect snow at times.

$$

NYZ007-008-060215-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T1200Z-171208T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0008.171207T0000Z-171208T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible at times. Total snow accumulations of 
  10 to 18 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest amounts across
  central and southeast Jefferson County and northern portions of
  Lewis county.

* WHEN...7 PM Wednesday to 10 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4412 7533 4417 7531 4425 7548 4424 7559 
        4416 7583 4401 7606 4390 7606 4390 7588 4399 7570 
        4406 7552 
TIME Y17M12D07T0000Z-Y17M12D07T0900Z
COORD...4400 7517 4408 7515 4422 7543 4414 7593 
        4407 7609 4401 7634 4386 7637 4383 7629 4370 7625 
        4381 7563 
TIME Y17M12D07T0900Z-Y17M12D08T0600Z
COORD...4413 7541 4420 7540 4428 7556 4429 7584 
        4418 7606 4395 7612 4380 7595 4381 7584 4391 7579 
        4402 7562 
TIME Y17M12D08T0600Z-Y17M12D08T1500Z

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-060215-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T2300Z-171208T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0008.171207T0000Z-171208T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible at times. Total snow accumulations of 
  10 to 18 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. Greatest amounts will be across southern Erie county,
  western portions of Wyoming county, and northern portions of
  Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.
 
* WHEN...7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4267 7827 4276 7825 4283 7839 4276 7858 
        4274 7884 4264 7895 4248 7934 4238 7941 4238 7920 
        4250 7877 
TIME Y17M12D07T0000Z-Y17M12D07T0900Z
COORD...4253 7838 4267 7830 4273 7848 4262 7914 
        4255 7936 4232 7975 4217 7977 4223 7944 4236 7897 
        4242 7861 
TIME Y17M12D07T0900Z-Y17M12D07T2100Z
COORD...4260 7851 4265 7833 4273 7826 4275 7870 
        4270 7909 4232 7975 4221 7976 4229 7945 4244 7890 
        4247 7872 
TIME Y17M12D07T2100Z-Y17M12D08T1200Z

$$

NYZ010-011-060215-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0005.171206T0800Z-171208T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0019.171206T2100Z-171207T0600Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
101 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the evening commute on Wednesday.
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties. Mainly south of a
  Buffalo to Batavia line, with greatest amounts toward the
  southtowns of Buffalo.

* WHEN...4 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 4, 12:39 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 4, 12:39 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1239 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will bring tranquil and mild weather
through Monday. A cold front will then cross the region Tuesday with
periods of rain. This front will usher in a much colder airmass for
Wednesday through the end of next week, which will set the stage for
significant lake effect snows east and northeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Regional show relatively thin fog becoming common across the area
early this morning, especially on the lake plains. The fog will
continue to expand overnight, but increasing mid/high clouds should
keep it from becoming too dense.

High pressure across New England will continue to influence our
weather tonight, which will keep the area precipitation-free.
The main forecast concern continues to be the development of fog and
stratus which did develop across Southern Ontario and northern
Michigan last night. NAM/HRRR guidance continue to show fog
developing again tonight, mainly across the lake plains from Buffalo
to Rochester. Although the GFS does not show this, it did not
capture the fog last night as well, so based on this have added
areas of fog to the forecast. The one lingering concern is
increasing high cloud cover and a modest southerly flow late
tonight. This may cause fog which does develop to lift northward
over Lake Ontario and begin to dissipate before sunrise.

Otherwise, expect lows in the lower 30s on the lake plains and
mid to upper 20s for the interior Southern Tier valleys and east
of Lake Ontario.

Monday's weather still looks quite nice with an increasing
southerly flow as high pressure slides to the New England coast.
Temperatures should climb well into the 50s across the lake
plains, and it may be some time before these areas top 50
degrees again. Winds will increase throughout the day, becoming
rather gusty during the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night, western and central NY will become situated within
increasingly strong southwesterly flow and warm/moist advection
ahead of an approaching cold front and 50+kt low level jet. The
front will be associated with a rapidly deepening surface low
lifting from the Minnesota arrowhead into central Ontario Province.
Latest expectations are for the first half of Monday night to be
mainly dry. An anomalously high plume of subtropical moisture, with
Pwats 2-3 SD above normal, will then begin to bring a widespread
soaking rainfall in western NY early Tuesday morning. This will
spread east into central NY through Tuesday with basin average QPF
based on 03/12z guidance 0.25-0.5 inches for most of our area but
now a little higher than previous guidance for the western Southern
Tier and eastern Lake Ontario Region. In these two locations QPF is
about 0.5-0.75 with an isolated inch possible as well on the Tug.
Temperatures will remain very mild Monday night and Tuesday ahead of
the front, with lows only slipping into the 40s Monday night then
highs reaching into the mid 50s Tuesday despite the thick cloud
cover and rainfall. Additionally a stiff south veering to
southwesterly flow will bring winds gusting 25-35 mph ahead of the
front.

Cold air advection and rising surface pressures will help to taper
off rain from west to east Tuesday evening while bringing a threat
for perhaps some advisory level wind gusts down wind of Lakes Erie
and Ontario. This is possible as a lingering 45-50kt jet is mixed
down in cold advection along with some funneling along the lakes.
Gusts of 35-45 mph have been included for now based on 12z GFS but
could end up being stronger and will need to be watched.
Temperatures will fall sharply through the 40s and into the 30s as
850mb temps cool toward -10C with a shortwave trough pivoting across
the eastern Great Lakes. The quickly falling temps may cause the
synoptic precip to change over to snow over the higher terrain
before ending. Lake effect snow looks to develop quickly in
southwest flow on the heels of the departing synoptic precipitation
early Wednesday morning as lake induced equilibrium levels rise
sharply to around 10kft. The snow bands should be focused mainly
south of metro Buffalo and Watertown but will be relatively tame the
first half of the day as synoptic moisture does not ramp up until
later Wednesday. Do to this, we still expect a less favorable period
for lake effect through mid-day Wednesday with the more limited
moisture and elevated shear behind a departing shortwave.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night lake effect snows are
expected to ramp up in intensity as equilibrium levels rise above
10kft with plentiful moisture and lift reaching into the favorable
dendritic snow growth zone per BUFKIT point soundings. The flow
through Wednesday night looks to remain about 250 deg which should
favor band placement to remain just south of Metro Buffalo and
Watertown although the exact placement of these bands could shift
with several days to go before the event unfolds. The event could be
the first significant lake effect snow event this season as CIPS
Analogs using 12z GFS valid Thursday afternoon indicate 72h Median
COOP Snowfall greater than 8 inches off Lake Erie and greater than
12 inches off Lake Ontario. Outside of these snow bands, there is
just a chance of some light snow showers in cyclonic flow aloft.
Winds will remain rather blustery through Wednesday which will
combine with Temps in the 30s to bring wind chill temps in the 20s
Wednesday. Winds and temps in the 20s Wednesday night will bring
wind chills dipping into the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Potentially significant lake effect snow event to continue
through Thursday...

Lake effect snow parameters continue to look impressive,
therefore maintaining the potential for significant lake effect
snows lasting through the day Thursday. The combination of
increasing over-lake instability with lake induced cape of 500+
J/kg, sufficient moisture through the entire column with no
threat for dry air entrainment above the forecast 10-12kft
inversion, well aligned flow in the lake induced convective
boundary layer for well organized banding structures, and subtle
synoptic support from a mid level shortwave pinwheeling through
the deepening trough overhead, all yield increasing confidence
in the potential of a prolonged period of heavy snow. Combined
with blowing snow, hazardous travel conditions will likely
develop during this time.

Latest models still suggesting the more dominant steering winds will
be a west to southwest flow direction, with a brief period of
westerly flow developing Thursday night. Although it still remains
too soon to pinpoint amounts or the areas of highest impact, those
residing in the typical snowbelts east of Lakes Erie and Ontario,
including Buffalo and Watertown, will want to pay particularly close
attention to the forecast over the next few days as the details
become more clear.

The approach of a shortwave Friday will likely disrupt the ongoing
lake effect snow within increasing shear profiles. However, before
the lake effect plumes full dissipate, they may move quickly across
the Niagara Frontier and Saint Lawrence valley by Thursday evening.
Whether or not the lake snows completely fall apart is more
uncertain, but there will certainly be enough cold air in place to
at least keep some general snow or weaker lake effect snow going
through Friday.

Once this shortwave clears, another surge of arctic air looks to
arrive across the lower Great Lakes. It continues to look reasonable
that another round of significant lake effect snow will ramp up over
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of fog will continue to develop overnight with areas of IFR
most common on the lake plains and also in the Southern Tier
valleys. The fog will dissipate early Monday morning as southerly
winds increase mixing. Mid level clouds will overspread the area on
Monday ahead of the next system, with VFR prevailing once the fog
dissipates. Mid level clouds will continue to thicken and lower
Monday night, and southerly winds will continue to increase and
become more gusty.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR. LLWS likely.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Lake effect snow with local IFR east and
northeast of the lakes. Mainly VFR outside lake effect areas.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. Snow showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over New England tonight will slide to the New
England coast on Monday. Southerly winds will increase later
Monday and Monday night ahead of a strong cold front, likely
bringing the next round of Small Craft Advisory conditions.
These winds will become southwest later Tuesday and Tuesday
night behind the cold front, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions likely continuing through at least Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 3, 5:23 AM EST, 22 hours 15 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
523 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

NYZ001>005-013-014-021-041030-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Allegany-
523 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010>012-019-020-085-041030-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
523 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A significant lake effect event will likely develop Wednesday and
persist through Thursday night or Friday morning for locations east
and northeast of Lake Erie. There remains some uncertainty at this
time range with the details of band placement and intensity.

After the first lake effect event is disrupted Friday by a wave of
low pressure moving through the area, a second significant lake
effect may develop for the weekend into the beginning of next week.
There remains plenty of uncertainty at this time range with the
details of band placement and intensity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-041030-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
523 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A significant lake effect event will likely develop Wednesday and
persist through Thursday night or Friday morning for locations east
and northeast of Lake Ontario. There remains some uncertainty at
this time range with the details of band placement and intensity.

After the first lake effect event is disrupted Friday by a wave of
low pressure moving through the area, a second significant lake
effect may develop for the weekend into the beginning of next week.
There remains plenty of uncertainty at this time range with the
details of band placement and intensity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-041030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
523 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Church

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 4, 3:25 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF5 days

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in New York, 2017Every winter storm watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.