Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Watches in 2017
Winter Storm Watch 11, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm watch at Dec 28, 2017, 3:49 AM EST for Cattaraugus County, Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It took effect at Dec 29, 2017, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 28, 2017, 3:49 AM EST (08:49 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 29, 2017, 7:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 28, 2017, 8:41 PM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 739 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 79 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -55 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 123 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
294 WWUS41 KBUF 280849 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 NYZ007-008-281700- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171228T1800Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero to 30 below zero. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * WHEN...Now to 1 PM this afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ020-281700- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Cattaraugus- Including the city of Olean 349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very difficult. Expect wind chills to range from 10 to 20 below zero. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Cattaraugus county. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, now to noon. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Friday morning through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Significant reductions to visibility in snow are possible. Heaviest snow expected Friday evening through Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below zero or colder. Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ NYZ012>014-021-281700- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 20 below zero. * WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany counties. * WHEN...Now to noon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ005-006-281700- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego 349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 20 below zero. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...Now to noon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ003-004-281700- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Monroe-Wayne- Including the cities of Rochester and Newark 349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 20 below zero. * WHERE...Monroe and Wayne counties. * WHEN...Now to noon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ019-085-281700- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very difficult. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions to visibility in snow are possible. Heaviest snow expected Friday afternoon through Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ Thomas
4 follow-up statements
823 WWUS41 KBUF 281651 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 NYZ020-290100- /O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/ Cattaraugus- Including the city of Olean 1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Cattaraugus county. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday evening through Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ NYZ012>014-021-281800- /O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY... $$ NYZ005-006-281800- /O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego 1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY... $$ NYZ003-004-281800- /O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Monroe-Wayne- Including the cities of Rochester and Newark 1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY... $$ NYZ007-008-281800- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171228T1800Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 15 below zero to 30 below zero. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * WHEN...Now to 1 PM this afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ019-085-290100- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions to visibility in snow are possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday afternoon through Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ Church
419 WWUS41 KBUF 281659 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 NYZ020-290100- /O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/ Cattaraugus- Including the city of Olean 1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Cattaraugus county. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday evening through Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ NYZ003>005-012>014-021-281800- /O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville 1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... $$ NYZ007-008-290100- /O.EXT.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 5 below zero to 30 below zero. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ006-290100- /O.EXT.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 5 above zero to 20 below zero. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ019-085-290100- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday afternoon through Saturday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ Church
510 WWUS41 KBUF 282042 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 NYZ007-008-290445- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero to 30 below zero. * WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. * WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 25 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ006-290445- /O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/ Oswego- Including the city of Oswego 342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 15 below zero. * WHERE...Oswego county. * WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of 15 below zero or colder. && $$ NYZ019-020-085-290445- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/ Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville 342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel may be very difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet are possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very difficult travel conditions at times with deep snow cover on roads and very low visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible. && $$ HITCHCOCK
000
WWUS41 KBUF 290141
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017
NYZ019-020-085-290945-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0013.171229T1800Z-171231T0900Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
EST SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 15 to 20 inches
are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. The
greatest accumulations are expected along the Lake Erie shore
and the Chautauqua Ridge.
* WHEN...1 PM Friday to 4 AM Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow will result in very
difficult travel conditions at times with deep snow cover on
roads and very low visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4246 7859 4267 7850 4272 7858 4271 7891
4260 7926 4232 7975 4199 7977 4202 7956 4217 7933
4220 7914 4232 7898 4234 7879
TIME Y17M12D29T1800Z-Y17M12D30T0300Z
COORD...4254 7876 4265 7875 4269 7880 4270 7909
4243 7955 4241 7955 4232 7975 4219 7977 4220 7962
4224 7940 4236 7918 4246 7884
TIME Y17M12D30T0300Z-Y17M12D30T1800Z
COORD...4234 7853 4252 7850 4265 7856 4265 7883
4262 7922 4232 7975 4199 7977 4201 7947 4199 7947
4202 7914 4207 7911 4220 7870
TIME Y17M12D30T1800Z-Y17M12D31T0900Z
$$
NYZ007-008-290945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously
cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10
minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20
below zero to 30 below zero.
* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.
* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.
&&
$$
NYZ006-290945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 15 below
zero.
* WHERE...Oswego county.
* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.
&&
$$
HITCHCOCKWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 28, 12:41 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 12:41 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1241 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Some limited lake effect snow will continue tonight and Thursday
southeast of the lakes, but in a much weaker state than earlier in
the week. Very cold air will remain in place across the region for
the foreseeable future. In fact, the worst is yet to come as true
arctic air will arrive this weekend to reinforce the bitter cold
that is already in place. The frigid airmass will also support
dangerously low wind chill values at times.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
All lake effect snow warnings and advisories have expired, with
snowfall rates now quickly diminishing.
An arctic front has pushed south of the area, with boundary layer
flow becoming more northwest in its wake. Lake effect snow is
becoming more multi-banded with the new wind direction, with a spray
of mainly light snow south of Lake Ontario, and across the western
Southern Tier off Lake Erie.
Overnight, some limited lake effect snow will continue southeast of
the lakes, but in a much weakened state compared to the past few
days as an extremely dry airmass moves into the eastern Great Lakes
and northwest flow shortens the fetch.
Off Lake Erie, expect occasional light snow showers across
Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties, and also far southern
Erie and southwest Wyoming counties. Any additional accumulations
will be limited to a spotty 1-2 inches.
Off Lake Ontario, the most concentrated snow showers will focus on
Wayne and northern Cayuga counties overnight, with a few snow
showers farther east in southern Oswego County, and also farther
west from Rochester to Orleans/Niagara counties. Additional
accumulations will be a spotty 1-2 inches for most of these areas,
with another 2-3 inches possible in portions of Wayne/Northern
Cayuga counties.
Otherwise...it will be bitterly cold across all of the forecast area
tonight. The mercury will drop to within a few degrees of zero over
the lake plains...with negative single digit values over the
Southern Tier. Meanwhile over the North Country...temperatures will
plummet to nearly 20 below. This will set the stage for dangerously
low wind chill values over the region. While all areas will
experience apparent temperatures of at least 10 below...values will
range from the minus teens away from the lake shore counties of
western New York to nearly -30 in the foothills of the 'Dacks. Will
thus issue a wind chill advisory for all but the Niagara Frontier /
Western NY where winds will be lightest, starting this evening and
running until midday Thursday. This bitter cold will overtake the
lake snows as the most pressing weather concern as we head into
Thursday.
On Thursday, temperatures will struggle to even break out of the
single digits for daytime highs, except for along the immediate lake
shores. Very dry arctic air and high pressure moving over the
forecast area will keep any lake snows very limited in strength, any
likely mainly limited to cloud cover and scattered flurries and
light snow showers southeast of the lakes. This will be found mainly
in Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties off Lake Erie, and
from Niagara to Oswego counties off Lake Ontario (best coverage in
Wayne/Northern Cayuga counties). Any additional accumulations will
be spotty and very light.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will settle in place Thursday night and very cold
temperatures will continue through the short term. A brief period of
quiet weather will come to an end overnight Thursday as warm air
advection aloft moves into the region ahead of an advancing
shortwave trough. Snow showers will move into Western NY late
Thursday night/Friday morning and move eastward into central NY by
Friday afternoon. A surface trough will slowly move across the
region Friday into Saturday. It looks favorable for lake snows off
Lake Erie with SW winds allowing decent fetch for snow across the
Niagara Frontier. Snowfall from the shortwave trough with lake
enhancement will result in amounts of 1-3 inches during the day
Friday. Winds will likely become westerly across Lake Erie and
lake effect snows will move SE of the lake. Off Lake
Ontario...there remains more uncertainty as sfc winds may have a
easterly component.
High pressure moves slowly into Northern New England and the
region will be under the influence of a very cold airmass and
surface trough. Shortwave energy will be present in the upper level
trough that has been in place across the northeast. Snow showers
will be around Friday night into Saturday night. Greatest
chances will be near the lakes, where likely PoPs will be in
place. There is still some uncertainty with wind direction...and
for now will not be too specific with snow band placement.
Bitter cold conditions expected through the short term with
temperatures topping out in the teens in the afternoon. Overnight
lows will also be very cold. Thursday and Saturday nights will be
exceptionally cold with a brief warm-up Friday night. Either way
temperatures will be in the single digits to near 0 with the
exception of portions of the North Country where temperatures will
reach -5 to -15. Further wind chill advisories may be needed in
future updates.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much change in the long term period, continued dangerously
cold with lake effect snow chances and below zero wind chill
values.
It is likely that any outdoor New Year's Eve activities will have to
be done in sub zero wind chill values, perhaps as cold as 15
below zero. So plan accordingly.
Medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the overall
synoptic pattern sending a series of waves around the persistent
upper low over Ontario through the period. Another arctic surface
high will drop into the Midwest over the weekend, ushering in more
bitterly cold air. The high center will move into the Ohio Valley
region by Tuesday, perhaps briefly allowing for a slight moderation
in temperatures. Another blast of cold air will then return later in
the week and continue through the end of next week.
Lake effect snow chances should ramp up again this weekend with this
arctic surge, but initial trajectories/fetch/timing still very much
in question. Maintained a broadbrushed nature to lake effect
probabilities in the Sunday through tuesday time period, but will
likely be able to refine this forecast over the next several days
for periods of higher probabilities.
On a side note, Lake Erie has now dropped to 33F at Buffalo as of
the morning of December 27th. These very cold temperatures could
produce a lake freeze by the end of December. If the lake were to
freeze in December it would be the first time the lake has frozen
over in December since the year 2000, when the lake froze on 31st.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weaker lake effect snow will focus southeast of the lakes overnight
as boundary layer winds become more northwest. The snow will be
much weaker than the past few days, but will still produce
local IFR southeast of the lakes which may impact JHW/ROC but is
unlikely to impact other terminal locations.
Some very limited lake effect snow showers will continue
Thursday southeast of the lakes with areas of MVFR and spotty
IFR. Otherwise VFR will prevail. These will end or move out over
the lakes Thursday night with VFR conditions.
Outlook...
Friday through Monday...VFR most of the time, with scattered snow
showers producing spotty/brief MVFR to IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
An approaching arctic high pressure system will keep winds strong
enough for small craft conditions on Lake Ontario into
Thursday.
As the arctic high moves over the Lower Great Lakes late Thursday
and Thursday night...winds will become light with negligible waves.
The large high pressure system will then push away on Friday with
winds becoming easterly/offshore in the process.
Conditions should then remain below small craft advisory criteria
through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The KTYX WSR-88D radar at Montague, NY has suffered a motor failure
and will be out of service through at least December 30, 2017.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Chill Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
008.
Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ003>006-
012>014-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
LOZ042>044.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
LOZ045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...HSK/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH
EQUIPMENT...WOOD/TMAHazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 7:09 PM EST, 8 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 NYZ003>006-012>014-020-021-290015- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario- Cattaraugus-Allegany- 709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-290015- Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- 709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-008-290015- Jefferson-Lewis- 709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Chill Warning. Cold temperatures and a light wind will again create bitterly cold wind chills Thursday night and Friday night. Though not as cold, these wind chill values may near advisory levels of -20F below zero. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-290015- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf HITCHCOCK
In the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 28, 12:32 AM EST, 3 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1232 AM EST THU DEC 28 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW SE MANNSVILLE 43.71N 76.06W
12/27/2017 M37.5 INCH JEFFERSON NY COCORAHS
2-DAY TOTAL
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702102
THOMASNearby
Winter Storm Watches in New York, 2017Every winter storm watch in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.