Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Watches in 2017

Winter Storm Watch 11, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 28, 2017Cattaraugus County, Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm watch at Dec 28, 2017, 3:49 AM EST for Cattaraugus County, Chautauqua County, Erie County, New York. It took effect at Dec 29, 2017, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 28, 2017, 3:49 AM EST (08:49 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 29, 2017, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 28, 2017, 8:41 PM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-12-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-12-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -55 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
739 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-55 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

294 
WWUS41 KBUF 280849
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

NYZ007-008-281700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171228T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 minutes
  to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20 below zero
  to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Now to 1 PM this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 10 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ020-281700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Heavy lake effect snow
  possible. Travel will be very difficult. Expect wind chills to
  range from 10 to 20 below zero. Total snow accumulations of 7 to
  14 inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus county.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, now to noon. For the 
  Winter Storm Watch, from Friday morning through Saturday 
  evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin. Significant
  reductions to visibility in snow are possible. Heaviest snow
  expected Friday evening through Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-021-281700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
and Wellsville
349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 20 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Now to noon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ005-006-281700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 20 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...Now to noon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ003-004-281700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Monroe-Wayne-
Including the cities of Rochester and Newark
349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 20 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Monroe and Wayne counties.

* WHEN...Now to noon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills will cause frostbite 
  in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-281700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
349 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 inches are 
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions to visibility in
  snow are possible. Heaviest snow expected Friday afternoon
  through Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Thomas
4 follow-up statements
823 
WWUS41 KBUF 281651
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

NYZ020-290100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus county.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are
  possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday evening through 
  Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-021-281800-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
and Wellsville
1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

$$

NYZ005-006-281800-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

$$

NYZ003-004-281800-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Monroe-Wayne-
Including the cities of Rochester and Newark
1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

$$

NYZ007-008-281800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171228T1800Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 15 
  below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Now to 1 PM this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-290100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1151 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions to visibility in
  snow are possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday afternoon 
  through Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Church
419 
WWUS41 KBUF 281659
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

NYZ020-290100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus county.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday evening through 
  Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ003>005-012>014-021-281800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171228T1700Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, Canandaigua, and Wellsville
1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

NYZ007-008-290100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 5 
  below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ006-290100-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed 
  skin. Expect wind chills to range from 5 above zero to 20 
  below zero.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ019-085-290100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1159 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 
  inches are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  possible. Heaviest snow possible Friday afternoon 
  through Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Church
510 
WWUS41 KBUF 282042
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

NYZ007-008-290445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20 
  below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ006-290445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 15 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-290445-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
342 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Travel may be very
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet are
  possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow may result in very
  difficult travel conditions at times with deep snow cover on
  roads and very low visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
000 
WWUS41 KBUF 290141
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

NYZ019-020-085-290945-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0011.171229T1200Z-171231T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0013.171229T1800Z-171231T0900Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 15 to 20 inches
  are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties. The
  greatest accumulations are expected along the Lake Erie shore
  and the Chautauqua Ridge.

* WHEN...1 PM Friday to 4 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy lake effect snow will result in very
  difficult travel conditions at times with deep snow cover on 
  roads and very low visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4246 7859 4267 7850 4272 7858 4271 7891 
        4260 7926 4232 7975 4199 7977 4202 7956 4217 7933 
        4220 7914 4232 7898 4234 7879 
TIME Y17M12D29T1800Z-Y17M12D30T0300Z
COORD...4254 7876 4265 7875 4269 7880 4270 7909 
        4243 7955 4241 7955 4232 7975 4219 7977 4220 7962 
        4224 7940 4236 7918 4246 7884 
TIME Y17M12D30T0300Z-Y17M12D30T1800Z
COORD...4234 7853 4252 7850 4265 7856 4265 7883 
        4262 7922 4232 7975 4199 7977 4201 7947 4199 7947 
        4202 7914 4207 7911 4220 7870 
TIME Y17M12D30T1800Z-Y17M12D31T0900Z

$$

NYZ007-008-290945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. The dangerously 
  cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 10 
  minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 20 
  below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 15 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
25 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ006-290945-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-171229T1500Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
841 PM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. The cold wind chills will
  cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.
  Expect wind chills to range from 10 below zero to 15 below 
  zero.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Now to 10 AM Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 28, 12:41 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 12:41 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1241 AM EST Thu Dec 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Some limited lake effect snow will continue tonight and Thursday
southeast of the lakes, but in a much weaker state than earlier in
the week. Very cold air will remain in place across the region for
the foreseeable future. In fact, the worst is yet to come as true
arctic air will arrive this weekend to reinforce the bitter cold
that is already in place. The frigid airmass will also support
dangerously low wind chill values at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
All lake effect snow warnings and advisories have expired, with
snowfall rates now quickly diminishing.

An arctic front has pushed south of the area, with boundary layer
flow becoming more northwest in its wake. Lake effect snow is
becoming more multi-banded with the new wind direction, with a spray
of mainly light snow south of Lake Ontario, and across the western
Southern Tier off Lake Erie.

Overnight, some limited lake effect snow will continue southeast of
the lakes, but in a much weakened state compared to the past few
days as an extremely dry airmass moves into the eastern Great Lakes
and northwest flow shortens the fetch.

Off Lake Erie, expect occasional light snow showers across
Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties, and also far southern
Erie and southwest Wyoming counties. Any additional accumulations
will be limited to a spotty 1-2 inches.

Off Lake Ontario, the most concentrated snow showers will focus on
Wayne and northern Cayuga counties overnight, with a few snow
showers farther east in southern Oswego County, and also farther
west from Rochester to Orleans/Niagara counties. Additional
accumulations will be a spotty 1-2 inches for most of these areas,
with another 2-3 inches possible in portions of Wayne/Northern
Cayuga counties.

Otherwise...it will be bitterly cold across all of the forecast area
tonight. The mercury will drop to within a few degrees of zero over
the lake plains...with negative single digit values over the
Southern Tier. Meanwhile over the North Country...temperatures will
plummet to nearly 20 below. This will set the stage for dangerously
low wind chill values over the region. While all areas will
experience apparent temperatures of at least 10 below...values will
range from the minus teens away from the lake shore counties of
western New York to nearly -30 in the foothills of the 'Dacks. Will
thus issue a wind chill advisory for all but the Niagara Frontier /
Western NY where winds will be lightest, starting this evening and
running until midday Thursday. This bitter cold will overtake the
lake snows as the most pressing weather concern as we head into
Thursday.

On Thursday, temperatures will struggle to even break out of the
single digits for daytime highs, except for along the immediate lake
shores. Very dry arctic air and high pressure moving over the
forecast area will keep any lake snows very limited in strength, any
likely mainly limited to cloud cover and scattered flurries and
light snow showers southeast of the lakes. This will be found mainly
in Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus counties off Lake Erie, and
from Niagara to Oswego counties off Lake Ontario (best coverage in
Wayne/Northern Cayuga counties). Any additional accumulations will
be spotty and very light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will settle in place Thursday night and very cold
temperatures will continue through the short term. A brief period of
quiet weather will come to an end overnight Thursday as warm air
advection aloft moves into the region ahead of an advancing
shortwave trough. Snow showers will move into Western NY late
Thursday night/Friday morning and move eastward into central NY by
Friday afternoon. A surface trough will slowly move across the
region Friday into Saturday. It looks favorable for lake snows off
Lake Erie with SW winds allowing decent fetch for snow across the
Niagara Frontier. Snowfall from the shortwave trough with lake
enhancement will result in amounts of 1-3 inches during the day
Friday. Winds will likely become westerly across Lake Erie and
lake effect snows will move SE of the lake. Off Lake
Ontario...there remains more uncertainty as sfc winds may have a
easterly component.

High pressure moves slowly into Northern New England and the
region will be under the influence of a very cold airmass and
surface trough. Shortwave energy will be present in the upper level
trough that has been in place across the northeast. Snow showers
will be around Friday night into Saturday night. Greatest
chances will be near the lakes, where likely PoPs will be in
place. There is still some uncertainty with wind direction...and
for now will not be too specific with snow band placement.

Bitter cold conditions expected through the short term with
temperatures topping out in the teens in the afternoon. Overnight
lows will also be very cold. Thursday and Saturday nights will be
exceptionally cold with a brief warm-up Friday night. Either way
temperatures will be in the single digits to near 0 with the
exception of portions of the North Country where temperatures will
reach -5 to -15. Further wind chill advisories may be needed in
future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much change in the long term period, continued dangerously
cold with lake effect snow chances and below zero wind chill
values.

It is likely that any outdoor New Year's Eve activities will have to
be done in sub zero wind chill values, perhaps as cold as 15
below zero. So plan accordingly.

Medium range models are in fairly good agreement with the overall
synoptic pattern sending a series of waves around the persistent
upper low over Ontario through the period. Another arctic surface
high will drop into the Midwest over the weekend, ushering in more
bitterly cold air. The high center will move into the Ohio Valley
region by Tuesday, perhaps briefly allowing for a slight moderation
in temperatures. Another blast of cold air will then return later in
the week and continue through the end of next week.

Lake effect snow chances should ramp up again this weekend with this
arctic surge, but initial trajectories/fetch/timing still very much
in question. Maintained a broadbrushed nature to lake effect
probabilities in the Sunday through tuesday time period, but will
likely be able to refine this forecast over the next several days
for periods of higher probabilities.

On a side note, Lake Erie has now dropped to 33F at Buffalo as of
the morning of December 27th. These very cold temperatures could
produce a lake freeze by the end of December. If the lake were to
freeze in December it would be the first time the lake has frozen
over in December since the year 2000, when the lake froze on 31st.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weaker lake effect snow will focus southeast of the lakes overnight
as boundary layer winds become more northwest. The snow will be
much weaker than the past few days, but will still produce
local IFR southeast of the lakes which may impact JHW/ROC but is
unlikely to impact other terminal locations.

Some very limited lake effect snow showers will continue
Thursday southeast of the lakes with areas of MVFR and spotty
IFR. Otherwise VFR will prevail. These will end or move out over
the lakes Thursday night with VFR conditions.

Outlook...
Friday through Monday...VFR most of the time, with scattered snow
showers producing spotty/brief MVFR to IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
An approaching arctic high pressure system will keep winds strong
enough for small craft conditions on Lake Ontario into
Thursday.

As the arctic high moves over the Lower Great Lakes late Thursday
and Thursday night...winds will become light with negligible waves.
The large high pressure system will then push away on Friday with
winds becoming easterly/offshore in the process.

Conditions should then remain below small craft advisory criteria
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KTYX WSR-88D radar at Montague, NY has suffered a motor failure
and will be out of service through at least December 30, 2017.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Chill Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ007-
     008.
     Wind Chill Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ003>006-
     012>014-020-021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...HSK/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH
EQUIPMENT...WOOD/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 7:09 PM EST, 8 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017

NYZ003>006-012>014-020-021-290015-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085-290015-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-290015-
Jefferson-Lewis-
709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Warning.

Cold temperatures and a light wind will again create bitterly cold
wind chills Thursday night and Friday night. Though not as cold,
these wind chill values may near advisory levels of -20F below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-290015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
709 PM EST Wed Dec 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

HITCHCOCK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 28, 12:32 AM EST, 3 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1232 AM EST THU DEC 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             SE MANNSVILLE           43.71N  76.06W
12/27/2017  M37.5 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            2-DAY TOTAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1702102

THOMAS

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in New York, 2017Every winter storm watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.