Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
117 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect snows will continue east of the lakes through
Wednesday. For the rest of the area, today will be chilly and
windy with areas of blowing snow. Temperatures will be bitterly
cold for the upcoming week as Arctic air settles across our
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface low pressure will exit into New England this afternoon,
which will bring an end to the general synoptic snowfall.
However, this has been quickly replaced with heavy lake effect
snow. These bands are producing localized snowfall rates of 3
inches per hour in the heaviest snows east of Lake Erie and
Lake Ontario.

Off Lake Erie...a band of heavy lake effect snow extends into
the Western Southern Tier early afternoon. This will organize
into a more focused singular band and lift northward toward
southern Erie county late this afternoon. After this, the band
will slide back southward during the evening hours. Also, strong
winds and equilibrium levels to 15 kft will allow this band to
extend well inland, reaching Livingston and Allegany counties at
times. Snowfall rates in this intense band may reach 2 to 3
inches an hour at times. This will impact travel on Interstate
90 from Angola through the NY/PA state line into this evening.
By late this evening, a lowering inversion and WNW flow will
result in less organized multi- bands off Lake Erie with
variable but still locally heavy snows. This will have the
greatest impact on higher terrain where upsloping will enhance
snowfall rates.

Off Lake Ontario...lake effect snows will continue to focus on
the traditional snow belt including the Tug Hill. The
combination of deep equilibrium levels, upstream moisture, and
the long fetch down Lake Ontario is nearly a perfect set up for
heavy lake effect snow. The heaviest snow will occur during
times when a singular band develops with snowfall rates of 3 to
4 inches an hour possible. Keep in mind, when this happens the
band will be narrow with rapidly changing conditions over a
short distance. This will severely impact travel on Interstate
81 this afternoon through tonight, and deep equilibrium levels
and strong winds will allow heavy lake snows to extend well
inland into Lewis county and beyond.

In addition to the lake effect, winds will gusty 40 to 50 mph
this afternoon which will result in areas of blowing snow. This
will be an issue in open areas, even where snow has already
ended. For this reason, the winter weather advisory remains in
effect through the remainder of the day even though little
additional snow is expected in areas outside of the lake effect.

Outside of the steady lake effect snow will be mainly dry
weather for the remainder of this afternoon, though some light
lake effect snow may clip Niagara and Orleans counties. Meanwhile
the ongoing cold air advection regime will result in temperatures
falling to around 10 above late tonight. Coupled with the
expected winds...this will allow wind chills to dip into the
negative single digits tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Significant lake snows will continue east of both lakes as we open
this period...but as we push deeper into the week...the snows will
weaken and push south. Meanwhile...all of western and north central
New York will be locked in a deep freeze as temperatures will
average a solid 15 deg below normal. All of this will be brought
about by a persistent high latitude block.

While the pronounced West Coast ridge will break down during this
period...the extraordinarily broad based trough covering the
majority of North America will remain anchored in place. The latter
will include the notorious polar vortex that...while it will
retrograde from Ontario to the Northwest Territories...will continue
to circulate sub arctic air into our region. The coldest air in the
northern hemisphere will be associated with this mid level gyre...
but fortunately for us the heart of this arctic airmass will remain
to our north.

The broad cyclonic flow of very cold air over the still open waters
of the Lower Great Lakes will maintain extreme lake induced
instability...with lapse rates initially exceeding 8 deg c/km up
through H7. This translates into a deep convective layer where very
efficient snow making conditions will be in place. Adding to the
mesoscale dynamics of this lake snow event will be synoptic lift
supplied by a ribbon of vorticity and low level forcing brought
about by thermal troughing. The former marks the relatively sharp
boundary between an anomalously strong 140-150kt H25 jet over the
Tennessee Valley and an equally anomalous weak wind field that will
be found north of the Upper Great Lakes. The result will be an axis
of channelled vorticity. The thermal troughing will be brought about
by the sub arctic airmass that will make its way across the wide
open lakes. This element will only intensify the low level
convergence needed for well organized lake snows. These added
ingredients...along with a multiple lake upstream connection...will
fuel already moderate to heavy lake snows east of Lake Ontario.
These snows will be focused on Oswego County and the southern half
of the Tug Hill Plateau. Meanwhile as for the snows off Lake Erie...
the weaker synoptic lift and lack of upstream priming will lead to
somewhat lower (albeit still impressive) snow accumulations.

As for the day to day details...
A low sheared...280 flow of <-20c H85 air will be in place across
Lakes Erie and Ontario on Tuesday. While the cap will lower to
around 5k ft over lake Erie...the colder mid levels over lake
Ontario will maintain a cap closer to 10k ft. In either case...the
dendritic growth zone will be within a couple thousand feet of the
surface...so there will be little if any chance for any aggregation
to allow the flakes to grow. The result in the sub arctic
environment will be smaller flakes featuring plates and columns. In
any case...snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour should be common in
the vcnty of the Tug Hill...while rates will average an inch or so
per hour along the Chautauqua Ridge. This will result in daytime
accumulations of as much as 9 inches off Lake Erie...while amounts
in excess of a foot can be expected across the Tug. Otherwise...it
will be partly cloudy and frigid with afternoon temperatures
generally averaging 10 to 15...with wind chill values below zero.

Tuesday night...the flow will veer to about 300 degrees. This will
push the Lake Ontario lake effect to the south...off the Tug Hill...
while the Lake Erie snow will become more focused on the Chautauqua
Ridge. This will help to cut 12 hour snowfall accumulations...as
amounts should stay under eight inches. Temperatures Tuesday night
will tumble into the single digits over the western counties...while
mins will be well below zero across the North Country.

Arctic high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday
morning will push east during the course of the afternoon. This will
help to keep a northwest flow in place over the Lower Great Lakes...
which will gradually push the accumulating Lake Ontario snows
further south to the counties lining its south shore. Afternoon
temperatures will once again struggle to reach 15 f over the western
counties...with readings likely being held below 10 for sites
across the North Country.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning...the arctic high will build
across our forecast area. The light flow within the frigid airmass
will encourage "tea kettle" snows along the south shore of Lake
Ontario while a less sheared environment will keep slightly more
organized lake snows directed across Chautauqua and western
Cattaraugus County. It will be just as cold Wednesday night...if not
colder...than the previous night. Readings across the North Country
could fall to -20f.

The passage of a low amplitude ridge Thursday afternoon and night
will lead to a further lowering of the cap. This will finally bring
an end to the accumulating lake snows and provide us with a respite
before the next synoptic system arrives during the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
On Friday, a strong upper level low will approach the region,
however there will only be a weak surface reflection with this
system transferring most of its energy to a coastal low. Model
guidance differs on the timing of this, with the 12Z GGEM
considerably faster than the ECMWF/GFS. The forecast favors the
slower guidance which is also supported by continuity from previous
runs. Following this, weak low pressure will move slowly across the
region Friday and Saturday, resulting in a general light synoptic
snow with possibly some lake enhancement.

On Sunday, there will be some lingering lake effect snow behind this
system. How much depends on how close a coastal low is since this
may provide additional moisture which would enhance lake snows. In
general, PoPs are higher than consensus guidance due to lake
enhancement which is not well captured by lower resolution long
range models.

Temperatures will remain well below normal throughout the period.
Highs will only be in the teens in most areas, with temperatures
struggling to climb out of the single digits in the North Country.
Meanwhile nightly lows will be in the single digits south of Lake
Ontario. With better radiational cooling in place, lows will range
from zero to fifteen below across the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main concern will be ongoing lake effect snow, however this
will mainly impact the JHW terminal. Vsby will be 1/4SM at times
in heavy snow through tonight, with a brief improvement likely
mid to late afternoon today as the band makes a brief jog
northward. Heavy snow should move back into JHW this evening.

For the remainder of the area today will be windy with areas of
blowing snow resulting in occasional vsby restrictions and
runway conditions. Winds will diminish some tonight with less
(but possibly some) blowing snow overnight.

For Tuesday morning, expect mainly VFR conditions outside of
lake effect snow which will continue to impact JHW with IFR or
lower conditions.

Outlook...
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Areas of lake effect snow
and LIFR/IFR east of the lakes, otherwise MVFR to VFR.
Thursday...A chance of snow showers/MVFR downwind of the
lakes...otherwise mainly VFR.
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR conditions with a chance of
snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over the upper Saint Lawrence Valley will pull away
from our region through the rest of the day. In its wake westerly
gales will overspread the Lower Lakes Region from west to east today...
then will continue through most if not all of tonight...before slowly
diminishing through midweek. As such Gale Warnings remain in effect
as outlined below...while Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
for the Niagara River.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A period of strong west winds is expected across Lake Ontario
from this afternoon through early Tuesday morning...resulting
in high wave action. This will in turn lead to the threat of
shoreline erosion at the eastern and southeastern ends of the
lake...particularly in areas where the shoreline is still
unstable following the previous high water levels from earlier
in the year.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KTYX WSR-88D radar at Montague, NY has suffered a motor
failure and will be out of service through 26 December 2017.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ005>008-012-019>021-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ004>007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ001>004-010-011-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ013.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JJR/RSH/APFFEL
EQUIPMENT...WOOD

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
203 PM EST MON DEC 25 2017

NYZ012-013-019>021-085-252000-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Livingston-Southern Erie-Wyoming-
203 PM EST MON DEC 25 2017

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WYOMING...
CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHERN ERIE...SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...CHAUTAUQUA
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES...

At 203 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 to 4 inches per hour was located along a line extending from
near Westfield to Cattaraugus to Belfast.  In addition to heavy
snowfall rates, blowing snow is also occuring in these areas.  This
snow band is slowly moving north.

Locations impacted include...
Dunkirk, Fredonia, Salamanca, Letchworth State Park, Springville,
Alfred, Westfield, Gowanda, Silver Creek and Ashford.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 61 and 58.
 Interstate 86 near exit 10, between exits 14 and 16, between exits
20 and 21, and between exits 27 and 33.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this band of lake effect snow.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4244 7950 4253 7939 4260 7919 4262 7917
      4262 7772 4223 7774 4213 7887 4217 7976
      4227 7976 4228 7973 4231 7977

Welch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
215 PM EST MON DEC 25 2017

NYZ006>008-252045-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
215 PM EST MON DEC 25 2017

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...LEWIS
AND NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 214 PM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 2 to 4 inches per hour was located along a line extending from
Sandy Creek to Rector to Whetstone Gulf State Park.  Blowing and
drifting snow is also occuring within this band of lake effect snow.

Locations impacted include...
Sandy Island Beach State Park, Stony Point, Carthage, Lowville,
Pulaski, West Carthage, Adams, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park
and Highmarket.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 35 and 44.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this band of lake effect snow.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4342 7553 4348 7581 4344 7584 4352 7650
      4356 7645 4356 7631 4358 7626 4378 7629
      4383 7636 4387 7635 4385 7644 4389 7643
      4402 7516 4361 7511

Welch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
220 PM EST MON DEC 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             5 SSW HARRISVILLE       44.09N  75.37W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             7 SW ATTICA             42.80N  78.39W
12/25/2017  M4.7 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             MEDINA                  43.22N  78.38W
12/25/2017  M4.5 INCH        ORLEANS            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NW CHEEKTOWAGA        42.93N  78.78W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SSE LACONA            43.60N  76.04W
12/25/2017  M3.8 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             LOWVILLE                43.80N  75.48W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 W WYOMING             42.82N  78.15W
12/25/2017  M4.2 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 N CLARENCE CENTER     43.02N  78.63W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 E WILLIAMSVILLE       42.97N  78.69W
12/25/2017  M5.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NNE EAST AURORA       42.81N  78.60W
12/25/2017  M4.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             PAVILION 2              42.87N  77.99W
12/25/2017  M4.9 INCH        GENESEE            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             PERRYSBURG              42.46N  79.00W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NE TONAWANDA          43.01N  78.83W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 NE STAFFORD           43.00N  78.05W
12/25/2017  M3.7 INCH        GENESEE            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 WSW ELMA              42.81N  78.68W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             6 N CROGHAN             43.98N  75.37W
12/25/2017  M5.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NE LOCKPORT           43.18N  78.68W
12/25/2017  M4.7 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 WNW ROCHESTER         43.20N  77.70W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        MONROE             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 ESE LOCKPORT          43.15N  78.65W
12/25/2017  M4.1 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 E OSCEOLA             43.50N  75.70W
12/25/2017  M5.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NNE NORTH TONAWANDA   43.06N  78.86W
12/25/2017  M4.8 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             WALES                   42.74N  78.51W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0715 AM     SNOW             LITTLE VALLEY           42.25N  78.81W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0725 AM     SNOW             6 E NIAGARA FALLS       43.08N  78.90W
12/25/2017  M4.2 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0750 AM     SNOW             ESE CLARENCE CENTER     43.01N  78.63W
12/25/2017  M4.7 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             5 NNE AMHERST           43.05N  78.76W
12/25/2017  M5.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 WSW BATAVIA           42.99N  78.25W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        GENESEE            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             SE MINETTO              43.40N  76.48W
12/25/2017  M4.2 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             W FULTON                43.32N  76.42W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 SSE NORTH TONAWANDA   43.03N  78.86W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             7 N BUFFALO             42.99N  78.87W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             WNW MEDINA              43.22N  78.40W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        ORLEANS            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 E LE ROY              42.97N  77.97W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        GENESEE            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             ENE EAST AURORA         42.77N  78.62W
12/25/2017  M3.9 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 S AKRON               42.99N  78.49W
12/25/2017  M3.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE GLENWOOD           42.60N  78.64W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             4 NW THERESA            44.28N  75.84W
12/25/2017  M8.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             2 NNW WILLIAMSVILLE     42.99N  78.75W
12/25/2017  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701996
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701997
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701998
EVENT NUMBER BUF1701999
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702000
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702001
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702002
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702003
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702004
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702005
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702006
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702007
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702008
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702009
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702010
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702011
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702012
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702013
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702014
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702015
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702016
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702017
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702018
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702019
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702020
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702021
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702022
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702023
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702024
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702025
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702026
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702027
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702028
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702029
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702030
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702031
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702032
EVENT NUMBER BUF1702033

SJW

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