Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
619 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will keep unsettled conditions and below average
temperatures across our region through Friday night. Conditions will
then dry out for the weekend and early next week as high pressure
builds across our region...with temperatures also warming back to
more typical late summer levels.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A deep upper level trough will remain firmly entrenched across our
region during this period...while surface-based troughing lingers
across the Lower Great Lakes. In a nutshell...this pattern will
ensure a continuation of unsettled weather and below average
temperatures.

Initially this morning...the lingering surface trough will continue
to generate some scattered showers across the North Country and Saint
Lawrence Valley...while a somewhat sheared westerly low level flow
will help to generate additional scattered to occasionally more
numerous lake enhanced rain showers (along with a few isolated
thunderstorms) over and to the lee of both Lakes Erie and Ontario.
As we progress through the day...increasing early September diurnal
influences should then result in the lake enhanced showers breaking
up and becoming considerably more scattered in nature with time...
while also aiding in the development of additional scattered
diurnally-driven showers inland from the lakes. Otherwise we
can expect some partial morning sunshine in areas outside of lake
influences to give way to mostly cloudy skies by this afternoon
with diurnal heating of our cool airmass...with somewhat breezy
conditions also developing downwind of Lake Erie. With 850 mb temps
falling to around +5/+6C...the lower elevations will see highs
mostly in the mid 60s today...with the higher terrain likely not
making it out of the upper 50s or lower 60s.

As we move into tonight and diurnal influences wane...we should
see lake enhanced/lake effect showers redevelop east of both lakes
during the evening with a somewhat sheared westerly flow remaining
in place. Showers should then gradually become more numerous/
widespread between the late evening and overnight hours as a fairly
strong shortwave pivots around the base of the upper level trough
and into our region...with the resultant increase in moisture and
lift also helping to bolster the lake enhanced showers east of
the lakes. Otherwise fairly cloudy skies will continue to prevail...
with overnight lows ranging from the upper 40s across the Southern
Tier to the lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The bulk of this period will feature below normal temperatures...as
a highly amplified longwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes and
eastern Canada will gradually advance to the Canadian Maritimes. At
this time of year...the very cool (if not chilly) weather will
support some lake effect rain showers as well. The details...

Without a doubt...Friday will be the most unsettled day of this
forecast period. Showers (some including moderately heavy rain) will
likely already be underway across the bulk of western and north
central New York as the day breaks...as a fairly vigorous shortwave
will be in the process of crossing the region. While this synoptic
feature will trigger the bulk of the showers...the pcpn will be
enhanced east-northeast of both lakes as a result of significant
lake induced instability. For what its worth...LiCAPE values are
forecast to be in the vcnty of 1500-2000 j/kg over both Lakes Erie
and Ontario. Given the lack of an inhibiting inversion and a -10c
height of roughly 10k ft...would not be surprised if there was some
electrification within the lake enhancement areas during the
morning. Have thus added slgt chc for some thunder to those areas
along with the mention of some heavy rain.

During the course of the afternoon the main synoptic forcing will
push off to the east. While this will encourage showers to taper off
in areal coverage...a chilly unstable environment within a deep
cyclonic flow will remain place. This will keep scattered...lighter
showers across much of the region. Meanwhile temperatures will
average at least 10 deg f below normal values...as H85 temps of 4c
and a wealth of cloud cover only permitting afternoon temps to climb
to within a few degrees of 60 f.

Channelled vorticity...provided by a cyclonic 65-70kt H25 jet on the
backside of the deep longwave trough...could provide enough lift to
support a few leftover light showers Friday evening. Otherwise...
any showers will have to be driven by deteriorating lake effect
processes. The weakening mesoscale influences will be driven by a
large sfc high over the Upper Great Lakes that will start to edge
into our region in combination with a short northerly fetch over the
lakes and drying in the mid levels. In summary for Friday night...
any showers in the evening will give way to partial clearing...with
the last area to clear being southeast of Lake Ontario. Temperatures
will drop into the 40s throughout the region.

We can look forward to significant improvement over our region on
Saturday...as the axis of longwave trough will push east across New
England and the aforementioned large surface high will build across
the Lower Great Lakes. Continued drying in the mid levels will
accompany the resulting increased subsidence from the approaching
sfc high...so we can look forward to plenty of sunshine...especially
over the western counties where leftover lake clouds will not be in
place to start the day. Unfortunately...H85 temps will remain in the
vcnty of 4c...so afternoon temperatures will again struggle to
within a few degrees of 60.

Given the close proximity of the large surface high...being centered
just to our northwest...Saturday night should be quite chilly.
Mainly clear skies and light winds will offer very good conditions
for radiational cooling...with the mercury dipping into the low to
mid 40s across the lake plains wile some 30s will be possible in the
Srn Tier valleys and across parts of Lewis County.

Very nice weather can then be anticipated for Sunday as the sfc high
will build across the region. H85 temps will moderate to around
8c...so we can look forward to a milder afternoon with max temps in
the mid to upper 60s. Its not out of the question that places like
Dansville and Wellsville reach 70. All in all though...a great
looking day for outdoor activities.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While high pressure will guarantee that we will experience fine
weather for the bulk of this period...there will be increasing
concerns about where the remnants of Hurricane Irma will track and
how it will impact western and north central New York. Lets start
with the easy portion of the forecast...which will be the start of
the new work week.

There is strong agreement between the various medium range ensembles
that high pressure will remain intact across our forecast area
Monday and Monday night. Meanwhile...the airmass over our region
will continue to moderate. H85 temps climbing to arnd 12c will
combine with strong subsidence and sunny skies to send Monday
afternoon temperatures well into the 70s.

On Tuesday...the persistent sfc high that had been anchored over the
Lower Great Lakes is expected to slowly weaken and push east across
New England while the remnants of Irma will progress across the
southern Appalachians. Guidance continues to show a wide range
solutions with the exact track of Irma as it moves north...but the
largest cluster of solutions takes it west of the Appalachians to
the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday evening. In either case...we should
be able to squeeze out one more day of fair dry weather with just an
increase in high and mid level clouds. It will again be quite mild
as afternoon temperatures will average in the mid 70s.

While guidance shows a widening plume of solutions for the track of
the center of once Hurricane Irma Tuesday night and Wednesday...
there is reasonable agreement that at least the moisture will be
picked up within the northern branch of a split flow and advected
over our forecast area. This would lead to some rain Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Will raise pops to high chc for now...but with
increased consistency in the ensembles...this should increase to at
least likely pops in the coming forecast packages.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As we move through the day today...increasing diurnal influences
should result in scattered to numerous lake enhanced showers east of
the lakes this morning becoming more scattered...while also aiding
in the development of additional scattered diurnally-driven showers
inland from the lakes. Aside from any patchy IFR fog across portions
of the Southern Tier early this morning...a general mix of VFR/MVFR
conditions should prevail today...with reductions to MVFR most likely
within any showers.

Tonight...lake enhanced/effect showers should redevelop east of both
lakes during the evening hours with the loss of diurnal influences...
with showers then becoming more numerous areawide overnight as a strong
shortwave pushes into our region. In general...we can expect a continued
mix of VFR/MVFR conditions during the evening to lower to MVFR/IFR
overnight as the showers become more numerous...and as low level
moisture increases.

Outlook...
Friday...Numerous showers with areas of lake enhanced rain east
of the lakes in the morning gradually diminishing in coverage
during the afternoon...with a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions
improving to MVFR/VFR.
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
An upper level trough will slowly push across the Lower Great Lakes
through the remainder of the week. A brief period of brisk westerly
to southwesterly winds is expected today into this evening...for
which Small Craft Advisories are in effect as outlined below.
With the passage of a weak surface trough tonight...winds will
become lighter...then will gradually turn more northerly on Friday
as surface high pressure begins building eastward into the region.

Otherwise...continued cool air aloft and resultant lake-driven
instability will promote a continued risk of waterspouts through
Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     this evening for NYZ007-010-019-085.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through
     this evening for NYZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Friday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM
         EDT Friday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
         this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
         Friday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
713 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

NYZ001-003>006-008-011>014-020-021-081115-
Niagara-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
713 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-010-019-085-081115-
Jefferson-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
713 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-081115-
Orleans-
713 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-081115-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
713 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Cool air aloft associated with an upper level trough moving across
the region will create favorable conditions for the development of
waterspouts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Cool air aloft associated with an upper level trough moving across
the region will create favorable conditions for the development of
waterspouts Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-081115-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
713 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

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