Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2017

Small Craft Advisory 93, NWS Buffalo, NY

October 18, 2017

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Oct 18, 2017, 2:00 PM EDT. It took effect at Oct 19, 2017, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 23 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 18, 2017, 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 19, 2017, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 20, 2017, 6:40 AM EDT
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

302 
WHUS71 KBUF 181800
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

LEZ040-041-190200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
200 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-190200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
200 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
9 follow-up statements
994 
WHUS71 KBUF 182320
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

LOZ044-190730-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T2200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
720 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-190730-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1400Z-171020T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
720 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-190730-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1500Z-171020T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
720 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-190730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
720 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-190730-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
720 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO
11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
383 
WHUS71 KBUF 190240
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

LEZ040-041-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO
2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO
11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T2200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO
11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1400Z-171020T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-191045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1500Z-171020T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
674 
WHUS71 KBUF 190841
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
441 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

LOZ043-191645-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T2200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
441 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-191645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
441 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-191645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
441 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-191645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T2200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
441 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-191645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1400Z-171020T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
441 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-191645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1500Z-171020T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
441 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
922 
WHUS71 KBUF 191456
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

LEZ040-041-192300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-192300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-192300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T2200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-192300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-192300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T1500Z-171020T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
021 
WHUS71 KBUF 191740
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
140 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

LEZ040-041-200145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
140 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-200145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
140 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-200145-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.171019T2200Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
140 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-200000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
140 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-200000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0000Z/
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
140 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
482 
WHUS71 KBUF 192315
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
715 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

LEZ020-SLZ022-024-200015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0000Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
715 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

$$

LEZ040-041-200600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
715 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-200715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
715 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-200715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
715 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
523 
WHUS71 KBUF 200519
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
119 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

LEZ040-041-200630-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T0600Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
119 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.


$$

LOZ043-201000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
119 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-201330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
119 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
978 
WHUS71 KBUF 200833
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

LOZ043-200945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.


$$

LOZ044-045-201200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
324 
WHUS71 KBUF 201040
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
640 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

LOZ044-045-201145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-171020T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
640 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Oct 18, 10:44 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 10:44 AM EDT, 3 hours 16 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1044 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic coastline will remain anchored
there through the week, bringing dry weather, plenty of sunshine and
above normal temperatures to our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For this afternoon and tonight clear, dry conditions will prevail.
It will not be as windy today as yesterday, although some southwest
gusts of 20 to 25 mph will remain possible across the lake plains.
There could be some valley fog tonight, but the dry boundary layer
will likely restrict any fog formation to over the moisture source
of creeks and rivers.

Temperatures today will be some 5 to 7 degrees warmer than Tuesday,
with highs peaking in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Tonight will feature
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. These temperature readings will be
around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As we have promised for nearly a week now...an anomalously strong
East Asian jet racing across the North Atlantic would provide our
region with mild weather...and here it is. Temperatures will average
above normal throughout this period...and well above normal as we
push into the upcoming weekend. We can ultimately thank the
aforementioned East Asian jet for this latest bout of indian summer
weather.

Hemispheric features such as the East Asian jet not only cut off the
supply of chillier air from the higher latitudes...but they usually
encourage troughing over the western half of the country. This is
important because troughing over the western conus will typically
lead to downstream ridging and moderating temperatures over the
Great Lakes region. Take note local mets...this can be a very useful
teleconnection forecast tool...especially during the winter months
when this jet is poleward of 40N.

Getting into some details of this period...
As a burgeoning ridge takes shape over the nations mid section on
Thursday...a robust shortwave (seen in hemispheric WV imagery
crossing the Canadian prairies this morning) crossing Hudson Bay
will sweep a far reaching cold frontal boundary across our region.
Given the limited moisture that will be in place across the Lower
Great Lakes and lack of any mid-upper level forcing...this will be a
DRY frontal passage with nothing more than a 3-6 hour window of
negligible increased cloud coverage during the second half of the
afternoon into the evening. A 40-45kt low level jet will precede the
sfc frontal boundary...but with cold advection ahead underway...a
fair amount of this wind will be able to mix to the ground. This
will encourage somewhat windy conditions with gusts well into the
30s (mph) across the Niagara Frontier...parts of the North Country
and across the higher terrain. The passing of this boundary will
also temporarily stall our day to day upward trend in temperatures.
That being said...H85 temps cooling to around 7c will still easily
support afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s f.

High pressure centered over the Upper Ohio Valley will then nose
back to the north and become re-established over the Lower Great
Lakes region Thursday night. While this will lead to clear starlit
skies and weakening winds...the mild airmass will preclude the
potential for any frost. While we will likely aim a couple degrees
lower than most guidance packages for overnight mins...the mercury
will remain above normal by only falling into the 40s.

Delightful weather can be expected to end the work week on Friday...
as expansive high pressure will become centered directly over our
forecast area. Generous amounts of sunshine will combine with H85
temps in the vcnty of 10c to encourage the mercury to climb well
into the 60s for the afternoon...with some of the warmer valleys
tickling 70. The mild weather...sunshine and light winds will make
this day a great one for viewing the Fall foliage throughout the
region.

As the large surface high drifts to eastern New York during the
course of Friday night...a southerly low level flow will gradually
become established over our region. This will help to keep overnight
temps at above normal levels...as mins are forecast to range from
the lower 40s across parts of the Srn Tier and North Country...to
the upper 40s across the bulk of the lake plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It will be absolutely gorgeous across western and north central New
York this weekend...as a high amplitude ridge will be anchored along
the East Coast. This staunch feature will pump late summer warmth
into our region while maintaining fair skies. Temperatures will be
some 15 to 20 deg f above normal...with the greatest anomalies found
during the day when the mercury is forecast to climb well into the
70s. It will be well advised to take advantage of the nice
weather...not only because of the calendar...but because a change to
increasingly unsettled weather with significant cooling can be
anticipated by the end of the period.

As we head out of the weekend...big changes will be heading our way.
The strong latitudinal jet that had been traversing the north
Pacific in the preceding days will be making significant inroads
across the northern Rockies while broad troughiness will become
established across the center of the country. Meanwhile...guidance
has been consistent with the East Coast ridge holding its ground.
This will result in a strengthening southerly flow that will not
only increase the general moisture profile across our region for the
start of the new work week...but will also serve to weaken an
advancing frontal boundary. The cool front will push across the
Lower Great lakes late Sunday night and Monday...but will wash out
by Monday night as it will become parallel to the aforementioned
southerly flow. The resulting frontolysis (weakening of
baroclinicity) will lead to less synoptic forcing for the associated
shower activity...so have backed off on the likely pops and will
only use chc pops at this point.

A semblance of a dry slot will work in behind the dissipating front
Monday night...so have again backed off significantly on the pops
from continuity.

For Tuesday...while there is general agreement within the ensembles
of a longwave trough digging across the Upper Great Lakes and Mid
Western states...there is a fair amount of spread in the surface
solutions. Without getting into the gory details between the various
camps of solutions from this range...will boil it down by saying
that the likely pops in continuity appear reasonable so will refrain
from making any significant changes at this time.

Looking further down the road at the end of next week...a
significant pattern change will be well underway across the
continent. A phased -NAO and +PNA pattern will be found across the
northern hemisphere as ridging over Greenland will block up the flow
over North America. This will encourage a deep...longwave trough
over eastern Canada with ridging found upstream over the western
half of the continent. Given this scenario...relatively cold air
found over the Canadian Archipelago will be given the opportunity to
push well to the south towards the Great Lakes region. While the
brunt of any true cold air will not be felt until NEXT weekend...the
trend in temperatures will be lower during the week. Thus...the bulk
of next week should feature near to below normal temperatures. Can
lake effect snow be far behind? Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unlimited VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light, though a few SW gusts this afternoon
may reach 18-20 knots across the lake plain. Drier air should
prevent the formation of any widespread late night valley fog.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR except for local IFR in river valley
fog each late night and early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of lighter winds is expected this afternoon and evening,
although southwest winds may gust to 20 knots at times. Winds
will increase Thursday as the pressure gradient over the eastern
Great Lakes increases. This will likely bring another round of
small craft advisory conditions on a southwest wind for Thursday
and Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 4:57 AM EDT, 9 hours 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
457 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-190900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
457 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-190900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
457 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2017Every small craft advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.