Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2017

Small Craft Advisory 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

January 11, 2017

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Jan 11, 2017, 5:58 AM EST. It was in force for 27 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2017, 5:58 AM EST (10:58 UTC)
Expired
Jan 12, 2017, 9:16 AM EST
In force
27 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

043 
WHUS71 KBUF 111058
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
558 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

LOZ042-111900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.170111T1058Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
558 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-111200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
558 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LEZ040-041-111500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
558 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-111500-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
558 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...9 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-111500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
558 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-111500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
558 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
8 follow-up statements
442 
WHUS71 KBUF 111509
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

LOZ043-044-112100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1009 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-112300-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1009 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-112100-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1009 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-111615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
1009 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-111615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-170111T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1009 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

$$

LOZ042-112100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1009 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
448 
WHUS71 KBUF 111738
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1238 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

LOZ042-112100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1238 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-112100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1238 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2300Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1238 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-112100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1238 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
384 
WHUS71 KBUF 111958
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
258 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-043-112100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170111T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
258 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LOZ044-045-120400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1400Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
258 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
527 
WHUS71 KBUF 112345
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
645 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

LEZ040-041-121000-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.170112T0200Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
645 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-121000-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
645 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-121000-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.170112T0200Z-170112T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
645 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ044-121000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
645 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-121000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
645 PM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK
782 
WHUS71 KBUF 120540
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1240 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

LOZ042-121200-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1240 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-121345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1240 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-121200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
1240 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-121345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1240 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-121345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1240 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
833 
WHUS71 KBUF 120836
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

LEZ040-041-121500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
336 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-121200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
336 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-121500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
336 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-121500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
336 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-121200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
336 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
219 
WHUS71 KBUF 121059
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
559 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

LOZ043-044-121500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
559 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...1 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-121500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
559 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-121500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
559 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ045-121500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
559 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-121500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
559 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
115 
WHUS71 KBUF 121416
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
916 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-121530-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170112T1500Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
916 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 11, 3:32 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 3:32 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
332 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep storm system just south of James Bay this morning will bring
strong winds across the region this early morning...with winds
rapidly decreasing through the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Rain, and higher elevation snow will end through the morning
as a cold front passes...with the remainder of the day dry; and the
return of some sunshine will allow for temperatures to climb into
the lower 40s. Another wave of low pressure will bring rain to the
region late tonight and through Thursday, with precipitation
tapering off with some wet snow Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is slicing through the region this early morning...this
from a deepening area of low pressure that is just south of James
Bay. Along this front a line of showers and gusty winds are
occuring...with activity now nearing the eastern Lake Ontario
region. VAD profiles on KBUF showed near 75 knots at 3K feet as this
line moved through, with these stronger winds brought down towards
the surface. KTYX has similar speeds at 3K feet as this line
approaches...and expect to see strong winds around 60 mph east of
Lake Ontario as well with the strongest winds over the next hour or
so northeast of the Lake, across Jefferson County.

Warm temperatures surging ahead of this cold front will allow for
mainly rain...with just a few locations on the Tug Hill holding onto
enough cold air to allow for some snow. Water Vapor imagery displays
a dry slot behind this cold front, and IR satellite imagery shows a
fair amount of clearing over the upstream Great Lakes.

For today the surface low will lift northward along the eastern
shoreline of Hudson Bay...and with the weakening of the LLJ, we
should see a diminishment to the strong winds through the morning
hours. Peak winds have likely already occurred across much of
WNY...with an uptick likely just east of Lake Ontario this morning.
Will leave the wind headlines as is with this update as strong winds
still remain.

A fair amount of clearing will allow for the return of some sunshine
today. There is very little cold air behind this cold front, and
with 850 hPa temperatures in the lower single digits above zero
today...the southerly winds will bring widespread low 40s...with
downslope areas across WNY possibly nearing the mid 40s.

Another wave of low pressure will advance from the Plains today to
across the Central Great Lakes tonight. Southerly flow will maintain
temperatures in the lower 40s this evening, with temperatures rising
through the night, nearing 50F across WNY by dawn Thursday morning.
This wave of low pressure will also bring an area of rain into the
region late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The focus during this period will be the very real threat for
flooding due to the combination of rain and snow melt. The area of
greatest concern will be across far western New York...where as much
as 4 inches of water is locked up in the snowpack across the higher
terrain. The hydrologic details within the risk area can be found in
a hydrology section below. As for the synoptics...

A robust shortwave...seen in WV imagery coming ashore across
northern California early this morning...will push across the
Intermountain West this afternoon and evening before making its way
across the Plains Thursday morning. This will energize an inverted
surface trough that will extend from the Lower Great Lakes to the
Lower Ohio Valley. Waves rippling northeast along this boundary will
cross our forecast area throughout the day Thursday while
interacting with a moisture rich environment. The moisture will be
supplied by a wide open Gulf during the preceding 24 hours that
will allow sub tropical GOMEX moisture to stream northwards over our
region. AMSU sonder imagery depicts the source area for sub tropical
moisture parked over the Deep South early this morning. A 60kt low
level jet will transport a plume of this moisture over our region so
that PWAT values of more than an inch can be expected for much of
Thursday. While these values may not sound impressive by summer
standards...they will be more than 3 STD above normal for mid
January.

The moisture laden airmass will interact with the slow passing of
the wavy boundary to produce several rounds of moderately heavy
showers during the course of the day. Synoptic lift for this event
will be enhanced by a weakly coupled H25 jet during the midday and
afternoon...and especially from the convergence associated with the
passing waves. Basin average rainfall amounts are forecast to be in
the vcnty of an inch over the far western areas...with localized
amounts in excess of an inch and a half not out of the question. QPF
for the remainder of the region will be closer to a half inch. As
mentioned...the rainfall will be exacerbated by very efficient
snowmelt supplied by near 50 degree temperatures and dew points that
will be in the mid to upper 40s. For what its worth...this airmass
will actually be much more representative of early April.

Once the final wave passes our region early Thursday evening...the
frontal boundary will accelerate away to the southeast and the deep
GOMEX moisture will be stripped away. While the widespread showers
will quickly end from the northwest in the process...the flooding
concerns will persist across the Western Southern Tier and parts of
the Niagara Frontier. As one would expect...it will become notably
colder in the wake of the front with temperatures plunging into the
20s by daybreak. There should be plenty of time for roads and
sidewalks to dry though before temps drop below freezing...so flash
freeze conditions are not anticipated. However...with H85 temps
lowering to between -8 and -12C...the environment will once again
become unstable over the lakes. This does not automatically
translate into noteworthy lake snow though...as dry air in the mid
levels and a very low capping inversion will severely limit the
ensuing mesoscale response. Will thus shave back on the pops
southeast of Lake Ontario to low chc. Would be more aggressive with
this move...but an upstream connection to Lake Huron continues to be
suggested by guidance. Slgt chc pops will be used inland from Lake
Erie where even stronger deterrents will be in place.

On Friday...an expansive arctic high over the Upper Mississippi
Valley at daybreak will build across all of the Great Lakes region
during the midday and afternoon. This will support generally fair
cold weather across our region...although some nuisance lake snow
showers will still be possible for areas southeast of Lake Ontario.
Temperatures during the bulk of the day will be in the mid to upper
20s...which is just a few degrees below where they 'should be'
(climatological norms) for mid January.

While modified arctic high pressure over the St Lawrence Valley will
keep fair weather in place across the majority of the forecast area
on Saturday...an inverted trough extending northeast from the Ohio
Valley could produce a LITTLE light snow across the Southern Tier.
If the snow does materialize north of the PA border...accumulations
could be very minor. Temperatures Saturday will not make it out of
the 20s...with mainly teens found across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Generally fair weather will be found across our region during this
period with a day to day modification in temperature. As we open
this time frame...a split flow will be found over the country as a
low amplitude polar jet will be found just north of the Canadian
border while a closed low will be in the vcnty of the Desert
Southwest. As we advance through the first half of the new work
week...the closed low will 'lift out' across the Plains states while
pumping up a downstream ridge over our region.

The confluent mid level flow produced as a result of the split in
the jet will help to produce subsidence over the Great Lakes
region...while expansive high pressure will be found at the surface.
This will result in a partly to mostly sunny day over the region...
with afternoon temperatures climbing to within a few degrees of 32.

While the large sfc high will slowly push off the New England coast
Sunday night and Monday...the amplification of the mid level ridge
over the Ohio Valley will keep fair dry weather in place for our
region. Temperatures will continue to moderate in the process so
that the mercury will approach 40 across the western counties Monday
afternoon.

As the ridge axis passes our region on Tuesday...moisture will start
to stream across the Lower Great Lakes ahead of an advancing warm
frontal boundary. This could lead to some light mixed precipitation
as we end this period.

There is a high degree of confidence that temperatures will remain
well above normal for the remainder of the week into the third
weekend of the month. The driving force for this scenario will be a
large upper level storm that will be closed off over Alaska. This
will force Pacific based air across much of Canada...effectively
blocking the southern intrusion of any arctic air to the Lower 48.

This extended temperature forecast remains in lock step agreement
with both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day temperature outlooks from the
Climate Prediction Center that depict a high likelihood of above
normal temperatures over the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deepening area of low pressure tracking just south of James Bay
this early morning will continue to bring strong wind gusts across
the TAF region. Expect the strongest gusts within the first 6 hours
of the 06Z TAF cycle, then as the low departs...and LLJ weakens
the surface winds will rapidly decrease this late morning and
afternoon.

An area of mainly rain continues to press across the region this
morning, and with a dry slot following a loosely defined cold
front...these rain showers should taper off quickly with the region
returning to a period of VFR.

Tonight another wave of rain will reach the region...towards
midnight across WNY...with this wave of rainfall bringing additional
coverage of MVFR CIGS across the region through the remainder of the
night. Winds will not be as strong tonight, generally from the south-
southwest to close out the TAF cycle.

Outlook...
Thursday...Mainly MVFR with rain showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers southeast of Lake
Ontario.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong area of low pressure will lift northward along the eastern
shoreline of Hudson bay today, and this feature will continue to
produce gale force winds over the lakes this early morning, with
small craft conditions then following through tonight.

Another wave of low pressure will cross the lake region Thursday and
Thursday night. Winds and waves will likely remain just below SCA as
this feature passes, but as colder air advects across the lake
Thursday night, both winds and waves will again climb above the SCA
thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A slow moving frontal boundary will cross the forecast area
tonight through Thursday evening. A series of waves moving along
this boundary will tap into a seasonably moisture- rich
environment to enhance rainfall across portions of Western and
North- Central New York, with around an inch of rainfall possible
Wednesday Night through Thursday, as the front slowly crosses the
area. This rainfall will be accompanied by temperatures and
dewpoints that will be surging through the 40s, effectively
melting the 2-4 inches of snow-water equivalent snowpack currently
in place across the Southern Tier. This will create a risk of
minor flooding across portions of the Allegheny river basin in
southwestern New York Thursday through Friday night. In addition,
faster responding creeks in the Buffalo metro area, whose
headwaters in the areas with elevated snowpack in the Boston Hills
and Allegany Plateau may also see elevated levels that may briefly
approach or exceed minor flood stage Thursday into Thursday night.
Have issued a Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday
evening for Erie and Wyoming counties with a Flood Watch also in
issued for Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties running into
Saturday morning covering for forecasted rises on area creeks.

Flooding is not expected in most of the Genesee Valley, owing to
lower snowpack across the headwaters of the Genesee River. The
lastest river forecast at Portageville however shows a rise to
action state so this will have to be watched for potentially being
added to the Flood Watch. Temperatures across the North Country
are not expected to get quite as warm as in the Southern Tier, and
the thicker snowpack is not expected to completely melt, and
should be able to absorb enough of the incoming rainfall to
prevent flooding in the Black River valley, and elsewhere across
the North Country.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019-085.
     Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for
     NYZ010-012-085.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ004>007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ006>008.
     Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for NYZ008-013-
     014-021.
     Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for
     NYZ019-020.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for NYZ020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/SMITH/WCH
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 11, 5:16 AM EST, 42 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

NYZ004>007-121030-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ008-121030-
LEWIS-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ013-014-021-121030-
LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-011-121030-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-GENESEE-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-121030-
CHAUTAUQUA-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-012-085-121030-
NORTHERN ERIE-WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-121030-
CATTARAUGUS-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-121030-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042-062-121030-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-121030-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
516 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 11, 5:52 AM EST, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
552 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG EAST AMHERST            43.02N  78.68W
01/11/2017                   ERIE               NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN N. FRENCH RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1700198

AR

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2017Every small craft advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.