Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Buffalo, NY

817 
WHUS71 KBUF 241654
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1154 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

LEZ040-041-250100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0010.171225T0900Z-171226T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T0900Z-171226T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1154 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.
The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-250100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0119.171224T2300Z-171225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1154 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-062>065-250100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1154 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

904 
WHUS71 KBUF 241812
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
112 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

LOZ042-043-250330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0119.171224T2300Z-171225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
112 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...East 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 40 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet building to 10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-062>065-250330-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
112 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-250330-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T0900Z-171226T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
112 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

WOOD

457 
WHUS71 KBUF 242117
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
417 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

LOZ042-043-250530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0119.171224T2300Z-171225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
417 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...East winds 15 to 25 knots tonight becoming west to 40 
  knots Monday and Monday night.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet tonight building 10 to 14 feet Monday and
  Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-062>065-250530-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
417 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-250530-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T0900Z-171226T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
417 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-250530-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0120.171225T1200Z-171226T1200Z/
Lower Niagara River-
417 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST
Tuesday.

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

SMITH

101 
WHUS71 KBUF 242353
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
653 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

LOZ042-043-250800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-171225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
653 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...East winds 15 to 25 knots tonight becoming west to 40 
  knots Monday and Monday night.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet tonight building 10 to 14 feet Monday and
  Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-062>065-250800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
653 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-250800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T0900Z-171226T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
653 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-250800-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0120.171225T0900Z-171226T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
653 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM EST
Tuesday.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-250800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0120.171225T1200Z-171226T1200Z/
Lower Niagara River-
653 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO
7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

SMITH

834 
WHUS71 KBUF 250907
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
407 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

LOZ042-043-251715-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0119.000000T0000Z-171225T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
407 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-062>065-251715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.171225T1200Z-171226T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
407 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-251715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171226T0600Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
407 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occuring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-251715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0120.171225T1200Z-171226T1200Z/
Lower Niagara River-
407 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-251715-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0120.000000T0000Z-171226T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
407 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
355 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across western and central New York
through the first half of today. Another storm system will then
bring a widespread general snowfall to our area late this afternoon
and tonight...followed by falling temperatures and significant lake
effect snows east of the lakes from Christmas Day right on through
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure currently over the Central Great Lakes will quickly
drift northeastward across our area and into the Saint Lawrence
Valley/southern Quebec today...while a strong channeled shortwave
over the central Plains slides eastward...and eventually leads
to the development of low pressure over the Ohio Valley by the end
of the day. With our region remaining more under the influence of
the migrating surface ridge for the majority of today...the bulk
of the day should be largely dry and quiet...with any leftover
scattered light snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario coming to
an end this morning as the low level flow becomes too light/too
sheared to support a lake response. Skies will remain mostly cloudy
as lingering low level moisture gets increasingly trapped under the
advancing ridge and mid and high clouds begin increasing out ahead
of the developing Ohio Valley system...with afternoon highs running
from the upper 20s east of Lake Ontario to the lower to mid 30s
elsewhere.

Late this afternoon and tonight our weather will quickly head back
downhill again as the surface ridge retreats northeastward across
Quebec Province...and the aforementioned channeled shortwave and its
parent negatively-tilted upper level trough plow their way across the
Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic/New England states. At the lower levels...
increasing DCVA along the front flanks of these features will spur the
continued development of an elongated/double-barrelled area of low
pressure...whose axis will quickly translate across our region from
west to east tonight. Increasing lift and moisture pooling along and
out ahead of this organizing system will result in widespread light to
occasionally moderate snow developing across our region from west to
east very late this afternoon and this evening...before gradually
tapering off from west to east later on tonight...except southeast
of the lakes where snow will continue through the night owing to
developing areas of lake enhancement.

At this juncture...it still appears that the vast majority of our
area will receive a solid 3 to 6 inches of snowfall out of this
fast-moving system...with the highest overall amounts coming within
favored areas of orographic and lake enhancement. In terms of
associated headlines...much of the area remains under a Winter
Weather Advisory to cover the passage of this system...while areas
east/east-southeast of the Lakes have been upgraded to Lake Effect
Snow Warnings that encompass both the synoptic snows from this
initial event...and the significant/prolonged lake effect snows
that will follow from Christmas Day on through midweek. For more
details on the latter...please refer to the Short Term portion of
the discussion that follows immediately below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This Christmas holiday period will be highlighted by major lake
effect snows east of both lakes and temperatures that will average
15 to 20 degrees below normal. All of this will be brought about by
a highly amplified pattern over North America...one that will be
locked in place courtesy of an anomalously strong and far reaching
west coast ridge.

This particular feature will extend from coastal California and
British Columbia across the North Pole to the Barents Sea. This will
force the polar vortex and some of the coldest air in the northern
hemisphere to be dislodged to the south across Ontario and Quebec...
some 500-1000 miles further south than usual. In fact...H85 temps <-
30c will be uncomfortably close over eastern Canada while H85 temps
colder than -20c for our region. Interestingly...H7 temps will be a
some 2STD below normal...which when applied to the thermal
environment over the Lower Great Lakes...will support a deeper than
normal layer where lapse rates will exceed 7.5 deg c/km. Deep
convection in this case = significant snow.

Boiling this all down...lake effect snow warnings have been issued
for east of both lakes through the day Wednesday for snows that will
total roughly three feet along and just east of the Chautauqua
ridge...and nearly four feet for portions of the Tug Hill plateau.

This period will start off Monday morning with the remnants of a
primary storm system over New England feeding into a deepening
secondary coastal storm off Maine. In the wake of this transitioning
synoptic system...a 40 to 50 knot low level jet over our forecast
area will send H85 temperatures plunging into the minus teens C.
This will prompt Mother Nature to switch gears from synoptic driven
snows to more focused lake snows east of both lakes. It may take
several hours for the shear in the low levels to become minimal
enough for organized lake effect snow...but this should take place
by midday/early afternoon. Initially...a 280 flow will be found over
both lakes with a cap over 15k ft. This will direct increasingly
organized lake snows across much of the Southern Tier as well as
across Oswego County to southern Lewis County. Given the strength of
the low level flow...expect accumulating lake snows to extend
further inland than usual...so the lake snow warning also includes
Allegany County. Snow will fall at a rate of up to two inches an
hour Monday afternoon. There will also be the potential for
lightning within the heavier snows. While the height of the -10c
isotherm will be relatively low to support a deep mixed phase
layer...the high cap will encourage plenty of charge separation from
a strongly mixed boundary layer. This has been observed in the past
during heavy snows within arctic airmasses that feature strong
winds.

As we push deeper through Monday afternoon into Monday evening...
the flow will back 10-20 degrees...just enough to encourage the Lake
Erie band to push north towards metro Buffalo and also across the
northern slopes of the Tug Hill. These bands will settle back to the
south during the overnight. While the cap will lower a few thousand
feet Monday night...it will remain above 10k feet deep and certainly
high enough to support snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches an hour off
both lakes. Higher rates will be possible over the Tug Hill where
the band will briefly intensify ahead of an approaching arctic
frontal boundary. Winds will also become aligned so that a multiple
lake upstream connection will become established for the Lake
Ontario lake effect.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night...arctic high pressure will be
centered over the northern plains while a sweeping cyclonic flow of
<-20c air will pour across the wide open Lower Great Lakes. A
thermal trough will develop within the edge of the arctic airmass
over much of the Great Lakes...and this will add low level
convergence that will only add to the lift for the Lake Ontario
snowfall. Snowfall rates of one to two inches an hour will be found
east of Lake Erie...while the more favorable moisture environment
(both synoptic and from the multiple lake upstream connection) will
allow for up to three inch rates over parts of Oswego County and the
southern half of the Tug Hill. Elsewhere...it will be partly cloudy
with nothing more than passing flurries. Temperatures on Tuesday
will remain in the teens. The normal max temps for this time of year
are close to freezing.

While thermal troughing over the Great Lakes will continue to aid in
the lake effect snows on Wednesday...some ridging in the low and mid
levels will start to weaken the impressive lake bands. This should
cut the snowfall rates at least in half with daytime accumulations
likely remaining under six inches. Otherwise...it will be another
partly cloudy and very cold day with max temps generally ranging
from 10 to 15f. Single digit readings are expected across the North
country.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday night through Thursday night...large arctic high pressure
will expand southeastward across our region...along with drier air
and diminishing winds. This will result in the lake snows weakening
and deteriorating into some remnant localized "tea kettle" activity
along the lakeshores.

Friday...a strong upper level low will approach the region, however
there will only be a weak surface reflection with this system
transferring most of its energy to a coastal low. This will move
across the region Friday night into Saturday, resulting in a general
light synoptic snow with possibly some lake enhancement.

Temperatures will remain well below normal throughout the period.
Highs will only be in the teens in most areas, with temperatures
struggling to climb out of the single digits in the North Country.
Meanwhile nightly lows will be in the single digits south of Lake
Ontario. With better radiational cooling in place, lows will range
from zero to fifteen below across the North Country.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Today high pressure will quickly slide from the Central Great Lakes
to the Saint Lawrence Valley. This will result in largely dry and
quiet weather continuing through the majority of today...with just
a few leftover scattered light lake effect snow showers or flurries
hanging on southeast of Lake Ontario. With a decent amount of low
level moisture becoming trapped underneath the advancing ridge we can
expect BKN MVFR to low-VFR level ceilings to persist right through
today...with MVFR more common across the higher terrain and VFR cigs
predominating across the lower elevations.

Late this afternoon and tonight a fast-moving area of low pressure
will push across our region. This system will spread a general
accumulating snowfall across the region from west to east late
this afternoon and evening...which will result in flight conditions
lowering to IFR areawide.

Outlook...
Monday...Widespread snow/IFR conditions ending...followed by areas of
lake effect snow and IFR east of the lakes.
Monday Night through Wednesday...Areas of lake effect snow and IFR
east of the lakes, otherwise MVFR to VFR.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure currently over the Central Great Lakes will quickly
drift northeastward across our area and into the Saint Lawrence
Valley/southern Quebec today...bringing a brief period of quiet
weather. The tranquil conditions will be short-lived however...
as strengthening easterlies will develop across Lake Ontario
late today and this evening out ahead of a fast-moving area of
low pressure that will track across New York State tonight...
leading to another round of advisory-worthy winds and waves
across the western half of Lake Ontario.

As the low quickly tracks off to our northeast Christmas Day...
the combination of strong cold advection and a still-tight pressure
gradient will likely allow gale force winds to develop on both
lakes...with these likely persisting through much of Christmas
Night. Winds will then only slowly diminish through midweek...
leading to a subsequent prolonged period of advisory-worthy
winds and waves.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KTYX WSR-88D radar at Montague, NY has suffered a motor
failure and will be out of service through 26 December 2017.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ012-019>021-085.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Wednesday for NYZ005>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Monday for NYZ001>004-010-011-013-014.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through late Monday night for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM
         EST Monday for LOZ042-043.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
EQUIPMENT...WOOD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
713 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

NYZ005>008-250015-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
713 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019>021-085-250015-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
713 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>004-010-011-013-014-250015-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-
Ontario-
713 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-250015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
713 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A brief period of Gale Force winds will be possible later Monday and
Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-250015-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
713 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf