Small Craft Advisory 103, NWS Buffalo, NY

758 
WHUS71 KBUF 100829
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
329 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

LEZ040-041-101630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171110T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
329 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-101630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171110T2100Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
329 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
329 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-101630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
329 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

048 
WHUS71 KBUF 101615
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

LEZ040-041-102100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171110T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-102100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171110T2100Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-110015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-110015-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1115 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

365 
WHUS71 KBUF 101925
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
225 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

LEZ040-041-LOZ030-102030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171110T2100Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
225 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

$$

LOZ042-110330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
225 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-110330-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
225 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

229 
WHUS71 KBUF 102045
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

LOZ042-110445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
345 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-110445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
345 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

747 
WHUS71 KBUF 110248
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

LOZ042-110600-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0600Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
948 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-110900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
948 PM EST FRI NOV 10 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

080 
WHUS71 KBUF 110513
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1213 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017

LOZ042-110900-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
1213 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-110900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
1213 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR WAVES AVERAGING 4 FEET OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED
MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD
AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

245 
WHUS71 KBUF 110817
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
317 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017

LOZ042>045-110930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0103.000000T0000Z-171111T0900Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
317 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.

$$

HITCHCOCK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1226 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder air will pour across the region overnight in the wake of
a strong cold frontal passage. While there will be scattered light
snow showers across much of the region...accumulating lake snows
will focus on areas southeast of Lake Erie and between Niagara Falls
and Rochester. The lake effect snow showers will taper off during
the course of Friday...which will be quite cold with temperatures
remaining in the 20s. Temperatures will gradually moderate through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
The last of the arctic front snow is transitioning into lake effect
and upslope snow across the western Southern Tier and east of Lake
Ontario early this morning. A second...arctic front...will push
south across the counties along the south shore of Lake Ontario
between 1 and 3 AM...and this feature could be accompanied by a
short burst of snow that could accumulate a half to one inch. More
persistent snows will be found southeast of both lakes though...as
moderate to extreme instability over the lakes will result in
accumulations that will generally range from one to as much as three
inches in the vcnty of the Chautauqua ridge...and also within a 25
mile strip that will extend from west to east across many of the
counties that line the south shore of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will sharply plummet in the wake of the arctic cold
front with overnight lows bottoming out in the lower 20s on the lake
plains and in mid to upper teens across the higher terrain...while
wind chill values lower to the single digits in most areas.

On Friday...scattered snow showers and narrow bands of lake effect
snow southeast of the lakes will continue into the morning hours...
before steadily diminishing during the late morning and afternoon
as diurnal influences and drier air/a lowering cap come into play.
At this point expect some additional spotty accumulations of another
inch or two out of the diminishing snow showers...with total accums
from the event remaining below advisory thresholds. Otherwise the day
will be unseasonably cold with slowly diminishing northwest winds.
Given 850 mb temps of -16C to -19C...daytime highs will struggle
to reach above the lower to mid 20s in most places...while the
aforementioned winds continue to support wind chills of 5 to 15
above zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snow showers will be ending Friday night, with lake
effect clouds lingering SSE of the lakes deeper into the night. A
dry airmass circulating into the region from an area of high
pressure near Lake Huron will bring a temporary period of clear
skies. Together with light winds, surface temperatures will tumble
down into the teens. It will be a tad warmer near the lakes and
where the lake clouds linger longest...while interior region of the
North Country and traditionally colder valleys of the So. Tier may
drop into the mid/upper single digits. For our three climate sites,
the record lows for Saturday include: Buffalo 19F/1957, Rochester
20F/1957 and Watertown 15F/1957.

The center of the surface high pressure, and shortwave ridge of high
pressure aloft, will cross the region Saturday midday, with clear
skies. As the high edges eastward Saturday afternoon, a return
southerly flow will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb just
above freezing for most areas while high clouds thicken aloft.

This area of high pressure will maintain dry/fair weather through
Saturday and Saturday night, while Saturday night, under mostly
cloudy skies, will not be nearly as cold with lows ranging from the
teens to mid 20s.

On Sunday two upper level shortwaves will approach the eastern Great
Lakes, both within the northern branch of the jet stream. The first
wave, will be flattening as it tracks from northern Michigan to New
England, and may bring a stray snow flurry/shower to the north
country Sunday morning. Otherwise areas to the south of Lake Ontario
will likely start Sunday out dry, though cloudy.

The second wave, advancing across the Midwest will be deeper and
carry more moisture with it. This feature will bring mostly snow
showers, though daytime warming may allow for a mix or change over
to rain across areas primarily south of Lake Ontario. Though 850 hPa
temperatures will only be around -2C, but near isothermal down to
the top of the boundary layer...it may maintain the snow structure
to falling precipitation especially at higher terrain. Greatest
chances for precipitation will be across the So. Tier which will lie
closer to the shortwave/moisture, while chance pops will be in place
farther to the north near Lake Ontario. Greatest chances for
precipitation will be later in the afternoon Sunday and into the
evening hours. This feature will pass to our east Sunday night with
precipitation likely in the form of all snow ending from west to
east. Overall not looking for much accumulation with the shortwave,
though an inch or two on the hills of SW NYS is possible. Highs
Sunday will climb back into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Zonal flow across the CONUS will keep a mild, Pacific-influenced
airmass in place from Monday through Thursday. Thus temperatures
will remain near normal values with daily highs in the mid to upper
40s and nighttime lows in the 30s. Precipitation wise, it will remain
mostly dry through this period, however the exception will be
Wednesday as a shortwave in the zonal flow tracks across the lower
Great Lakes. This will likely produce some scattered showers as it
crosses the area, however precipitation amounts would likely be
light with limited dynamics and moisture.

Looking beyond the official long term forecast, into next weekend,
models are showing some consistency in a more pronounced trough
cutting off and drifting across the Great Lakes into New England.
This system may offer our next chance of milder air and widespread
rainfall Friday, followed by much cooler air and lake effect showers
into the weekend. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The last of the snow associated with the arctic cold front is
transitioning into lake effect and upslope snow across the western
Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario early this morning. Northwest
flow lake effect will continue to produce local IFR southeast of the
lakes through about 14Z before breaking up into scattered light
flurries. Some of the local/brief IFR may impact KJHW and KROC at
times. Outside of lake effect areas expect mainly VFR conditions.

Later Friday expect just some lake effect clouds and light flurries
southeast of the lakes with mainly VFR conditions. High pressure
will build into the eastern Great Lakes Friday night with mainly VFR
conditions.

Outlook...
Saturday...VFR.
Sunday and Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale force winds found across the Lower Great Lakes at 03z will
remain steady or slowly subside during the remainder of the
overnight...with the most noticeable drop in speeds being found on
Lake Erie. This should allow the gale warnings to expire as
forecast.

Moderate to strong northwest winds will then continue into Friday
morning...before strong high pressure builds into the region Friday
afternoon through Saturday with winds and waves gradually subsiding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northwest winds will develop behind an arctic cold front
passage tonight. This will build water levels and wave action
along the entire Lake Ontario shoreline from tonight through
Friday. The combination of already higher lake levels and added
wave action will result in increased shoreline erosion,
especially where the lakeshore is already unstable from erosion
earlier in the year.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ001>007.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for NYZ001>007.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EST early this morning for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon
         for SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR/RSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
419 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

NYZ008-010>014-019>021-085-100930-
Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
419 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

An arctic cold front will plow across western and north-central New
York this evening. Rain showers preceding the front will change to
snow showers behind it. Visibility could be reduced in snow showers
behind the front.

A flash freeze remains possible in the wake of the front as
temperatures will plummet into the 20s. While most roadways will
still be warm enough to prevent an issue, elevated road surfaces
such as bridges and overpasses will be particularly susceptible to
flash freezing. Motorists should be prepared for winter driving
conditions tonight into Friday morning especially southeast of the
lakes where some accumulating lake effect snow will become likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>007-100930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
419 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

An arctic cold front will plow across western and north-central New
York this evening. Rain showers preceding the front will change to
snow showers behind it. Visibility could be reduced in snow showers
behind the front.

A flash freeze remains possible in the wake of the front as
temperatures will plummet into the 20s. While most roadways will
still be warm enough to prevent an issue, elevated road surfaces
such as bridges and overpasses will be particularly susceptible to
flash freezing. Motorists should be prepared for winter driving
conditions tonight into Friday morning especially southeast of the
lakes where some accumulating lake effect snow will become likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ030-100930-
Lower Niagara River-
419 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-SLZ022-024-100930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
419 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-100930-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
419 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-100930-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
419 AM EST Thu Nov 9 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 PM EST THU NOV 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE BUFFALO            42.91N  78.84W
11/09/2017                   ERIE               NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON FRENCH STREET BETWEEN FILLMORE AVE AND
            KEHR STREET. TIME ESTIMATED WITH PEAK WIND GUST AT
            BUFFALO AIRPORT OF 46 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701591

CHURCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 PM EST THU NOV 09 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 16 NNE GOOSE BAY        44.57N  75.68W
11/09/2017  M39 MPH          SLZ022             NY   MESONET

            HAMMOND NYSM

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1701592

CHURCH