Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Watches in 2017
Lake Effect Snow Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow watch at Jan 31, 2017, 2:51 PM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Feb 2, 2017, 4:00 PM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 31, 2017, 2:51 PM EST (19:51 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 2, 2017, 4:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 1, 2017, 12:58 PM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 938 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 87 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 280 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
851 WWUS41 KBUF 311951 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 251 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 NYZ006>008-010400- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0004.170202T2100Z-170204T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.170201T0600Z-170202T0900Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OSWEGO, WATERTOWN, AND LOWVILLE 251 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER ON IN THE WEEK...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE FROM LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES...THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...VERY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER ON IN THE WEEK...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND DEEPER SNOW COVER ON ROADS MAY LEAD TO EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ019-020-010400- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170201T2100Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JAMESTOWN AND OLEAN 251 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES. * IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-085-010400- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170201T2100Z/ WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WARSAW, ORCHARD PARK, AND SPRINGVILLE 251 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES. * IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ JJR/HITCHCOCK
6 follow-up statements
311 WWUS41 KBUF 010003 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 703 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 NYZ006>008-010815- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.170201T0600Z-170202T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.170202T2100Z-170204T1200Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OSWEGO, WATERTOWN, AND LOWVILLE 703 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER ON IN THE WEEK...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE FROM LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES...THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...VERY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER ON IN THE WEEK...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND DEEPER SNOW COVER ON ROADS MAY LEAD TO EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ019-020-010815- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170201T2100Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JAMESTOWN AND OLEAN 703 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES. * IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-085-010815- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170201T2100Z/ WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WARSAW, ORCHARD PARK, AND SPRINGVILLE 703 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES. * IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$
475 WWUS41 KBUF 010236 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 936 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 NYZ006>008-011045- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.170201T0600Z-170202T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.170202T2100Z-170204T1200Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OSWEGO, WATERTOWN, AND LOWVILLE 936 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER ON IN THE WEEK...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE FROM LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN BOTH CASES...THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE TUG HILL. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...VERY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER ON IN THE WEEK...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND DEEPER SNOW COVER ON ROADS MAY LEAD TO EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ019-020-011045- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170201T2100Z/ CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JAMESTOWN AND OLEAN 936 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES. * IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ NYZ012-085-011045- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170201T2100Z/ WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WARSAW, ORCHARD PARK, AND SPRINGVILLE 936 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES. * IMPACTS...A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$
381 WWUS41 KBUF 010612 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 112 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017 NYZ012-019-020-085-010715- /O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170201T2100Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WARSAW, JAMESTOWN, OLEAN, ORCHARD PARK, AND SPRINGVILLE 112 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR LESS EXPECTED. $$ NYZ006>008-011415- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170202T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.170202T2100Z-170204T1200Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OSWEGO, WATERTOWN, AND LOWVILLE 112 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. * TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND AN INCH THROUGH 6 AM...1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY...3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...5 TO 9 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...7 TO 13 INCHES FRIDAY...3 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS SATURDAY. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW VISIBILITIES ON SNOW COVERED ROADS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND DEEPER SNOW COVER ON ROADS MAY LEAD TO EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE SNOW WATCH...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ SMITH
698 WWUS41 KBUF 010838 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 338 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017 NYZ006>008-011645- /O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170202T0900Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.170202T2100Z-170204T1200Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OSWEGO, WATERTOWN, AND LOWVILLE 338 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ON THE TOP OF THE TUG HILL. * TIMING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARDS...WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TAPERING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH 6 AM...3 TO 6 INCHES TODAY...UP TO 2 INCHES TONIGHT...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...6 TO 11 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * IMPACTS...SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW VISIBILITIES ON SNOW COVERED ROADS THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND DEEPER SNOW COVER ON ROADS MAY LEAD TO EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE SNOW WATCH...MEDIUM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS THAT CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO. && $$ SMITH/TMA
309
WWUS41 KBUF 011321
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
821 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017
NYZ006>008-012130-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170202T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0003.170201T1321Z-170202T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0004.170202T2100Z-170204T1200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OSWEGO, WATERTOWN, AND LOWVILLE
821 AM EST WED FEB 1 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
* TIMING...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 8 TO 14 INCHES TODAY AND TONIGHT
IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS. 1 TO 2 FEET OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH PRODUCING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND DEEP
SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO
ADAMS.
* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR LAKE SNOW WATCH...MEDIUM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.
IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.
REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX
&&
EXPERIMENTAL CONTENT BELOW...DO NOT USE OPERATIONALLY
PLEASE SEE BELOW LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EXPERIMENT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/POLYGON_PDD
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/
PNS15LAKE_EFFECT_SNOWAAA.HTM
TO VIEW THE EXPERIMENTAL POLYGONS PLEASE SEE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/LESPOLYGON
COORD...4377 7567 4380 7575 4380 7598 4375 7612
4371 7616 4359 7609 4356 7601 4354 7580 4357 7565
4367 7559
TIME Y17M02D01T1200Z-Y17M02D02T0000Z
COORD...4371 7556 4384 7570 4385 7586 4384 7595
4377 7609 4362 7612 4355 7604 4351 7572 4355 7562
4359 7558
TIME Y17M02D02T0000Z-Y17M02D02T0900Z
$$
HITCHCOCK/JJR188
WWUS41 KBUF 011758
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1258 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017
NYZ006>008-020200-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0004.170202T2100Z-170204T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0004.170202T1800Z-170205T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170202T0900Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OSWEGO, WATERTOWN, AND LOWVILLE
1258 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.
* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
* TIMING...THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE SECOND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING.
* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL 4 TO 7 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO
9 INCHES TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL. STORM TOTALS FOR THE SECOND STORM FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 3 FEET ACROSS THE TUG
HILL...AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH PRODUCING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND DEEP
SNOW COVER ON ROADS. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 81 FROM PARISH TO
ADAMS. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.
IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.
REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX
&&
EXPERIMENTAL CONTENT BELOW...DO NOT USE OPERATIONALLY
PLEASE SEE BELOW LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EXPERIMENT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/POLYGON_PDD
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/
PNS15LAKE_EFFECT_SNOWAAA.HTM
TO VIEW THE EXPERIMENTAL POLYGONS PLEASE SEE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/LESPOLYGON
COORD...4391 7516 4387 7538 4391 7576 4381 7626
4352 7626 4344 7581 4347 7570 4342 7550 4352 7536
4360 7513
TIME Y17M02D01T1800Z-Y17M02D02T0900Z
COORD...4353 7529 4373 7616 4355 7625 4356 7643
4336 7677 4328 7705 4324 7645 4328 7620 4316 7588
4342 7586
TIME Y17M02D02T1800Z-Y17M02D03T0600Z
COORD...4393 7515 4389 7580 4379 7627 4361 7623
4355 7625 4346 7623 4341 7583 4347 7570 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y17M02D03T0600Z-Y17M02D03T1200Z
COORD...4408 7515 4412 7523 4401 7568 4394 7606
4385 7629 4363 7623 4366 7563 4369 7556 4374 7522
4373 7513
TIME Y17M02D03T1200Z-Y17M02D03T2100Z
COORD...4360 7513 4383 7517 4383 7584 4379 7627
4357 7625 4345 7663 4329 7636 4331 7588 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y17M02D03T2100Z-Y17M02D05T0000Z
$$
NYZ004-005-020200-
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0003.170202T0600Z-170203T0600Z/
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF NEWARK AND FAIR HAVEN
1258 PM EST WED FEB 1 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY.
* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND WAYNE COUNTIES. GREATEST SNOW
AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 104 AND EAST OF SODUS BAY.
* TIMING...FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT.
* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES
THURSDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM
TOTALS OF 8 TO 13 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.
* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH PRODUCING SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PRODUCE VERY
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS WITH VERY POOR VISIBILITY AND DEEP
SNOW COVER ON ROADS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.
IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.
REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BUFFALO BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO BUFSTORM.REPORT@NOAA.GOV...POSTING
TO THE NWS BUFFALO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET...USING THE HASHTAG
BUFWX
&&
EXPERIMENTAL CONTENT BELOW...DO NOT USE OPERATIONALLY
PLEASE SEE BELOW LINKS FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS EXPERIMENT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/POLYGON_PDD
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/
PNS15LAKE_EFFECT_SNOWAAA.HTM
TO VIEW THE EXPERIMENTAL POLYGONS PLEASE SEE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF/LESPOLYGON
COORD...4325 7658 4334 7677 4329 7695 4333 7734
4316 7723 4314 7698 4309 7691 4310 7679 4309 7648
4318 7647
TIME Y17M02D02T0900Z-Y17M02D02T1800Z
COORD...4353 7529 4373 7616 4355 7625 4356 7643
4336 7677 4328 7705 4324 7645 4328 7620 4316 7588
4342 7586
TIME Y17M02D02T1800Z-Y17M02D03T0600Z
$$
HITCHCOCK/JJRWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow watch went out at Jan 31, 2:40 PM EST, 11 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 31, 2:40 PM EST, 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
240 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing clipper system will bring occasional light snow to the
region through Wednesday morning. As this system departs our region
Wednesday...the snow will transition to areas of lake effect snow
that will then last into the weekend as a colder airmass builds
across the Great Lakes. While the lake snows are expected to be
relatively minimal east of Lake Erie...these may be much more
significant east of Lake Ontario.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak clipper system will pass across New York State between late
this afternoon and tonight...before redeveloping off the New England
coastline on Wednesday. This feature will bring occasional light
snow to the region through late tonight...with the synoptic snows
then generally tapering off to some scattered light snow showers or
flurries from southwest to northeast through the balance of the
period. The exceptions to this will be east of Lake Erie and
especially Lake Ontario...where the combination of a marginally
cold enough airmass and an increasing westerly upslope flow later
tonight and Wednesday will help to maintain lake and orographically
enhanced snows right through the end of this period.
For most areas...the passing clipper will bring an additional 1 to
2 inches of snow between now and Wednesday. Within the aforementioned
regions of upslope flow and lake enhancement...somewhat higher amounts
of 2 to 4 inches can be expected across the higher terrain east of
Lake Erie...and as much as 3 to 6 inches will be likely across the
Tug Hill and Adirondack foothills east of Lake Ontario.
Based on these amounts...we will maintain a very low-end winter
weather advisory for the favored upslope flow areas east of Lake Erie.
Meanwhile...we have also issued a second winter weather advisory to
cover the combination of the synoptic and lake-enhanced snowfall
expected across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario tonight and
Wednesday...along with the additional lake effect snow anticipated
Wednesday night (further discussed in the short term section below).
For this latter area...a general 5 to 9 inches of fresh snowfall is
expected between the second half of tonight and Wednesday night...
with lower-end warning criteria amounts not entirely out of the
question in a few spots.
With regard to temperatures...lows tonight will range from the upper
teens across the North Country to the mid to upper 20s elsewhere...with
highs in the lower to mid 30s then following for most areas on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday night the weak clipper low will move from the Gulf of
Maine east across the Canadian Maritimes with any leftover light
synoptic snow showers ending. Westerly flow over Lake Ontario
combined with the passage of a weak surface trough will likely keep
westerly upslope flow and lake enhancement going across the Tug Hill
region through the first half of the night. Some mesoscale guidance
including the NAM and high resolution 3KM NAM-RR show a period of
stronger convergence developing over Lake Ontario overnight with the
approach of a weak surface trough, which may bring a brief period of
enhanced snow to the Tug Hill region from late evening through the
early overnight.
With this in mind, the Winter Weather Advisory has been stretched
out through most of Wednesday night to account for both the earlier
synoptic scale snow, and the brief period of lake enhanced snow at
the end of the event. Total snowfall after all is said and done will
likely end up being high end advisory amounts with a solid 5-9
inches over a 24 period for the high terrain of the Tug Hill. There
is some potential that warning criteria may be reached if the lake
enhancement intensifies more than expected, and we will continue to
monitor this possibility.
Now for lake effect potential. The late week period continues to
look favorable for heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario with
lake induced equilibrium levels of 8-10K feet and sufficient
moisture, instability, and dendritic crystal growth. Conditions will
be very different over Lake Erie, with a much lower cap around 6K
feet and a much drier airmass in closer proximity to the surface
high over the Ohio Valley. At this point, any lake snow east of Lake
Erie appears to be light.
Off Lake Ontario...
The aforementioned trough will drop south across Lake Ontario late
Wednesday night and push an east/west oriented band of lake effect
onshore along the entire south shore of the lake from Niagara to
Oswego counties. Mesoscale model guidance pushes this band south of
the Thruway Thursday morning, but model guidance often pushes these
bands too far south. With that in mind, have hung the band up along
and north of the NYS Thruway late Wednesday night and Thursday
morning with a few inches of accumulation, including the Rochester
area. Meanwhile east of Lake Ontario expect just a few scattered
snow showers from late Wednesday through most of Thursday with lake
effect focus remaining west of the area. By the afternoon boundary
layer flow will begin to back again, allowing this band of snow to
push north and east and end up focusing at the southeast corner of
the lake from Wayne to Oswego county by late afternoon.
The main event will start Thursday night and continue through at
least Friday night as deeper westerly flow becomes established over
Lake Ontario. Expect a band to consolidate and intensify over Oswego
County during the late afternoon and early evening Thursday. Some
accumulating snow may also clip northern Wayne and northern Cayuga
counties, but this should be brief with accumulation limited to a
few inches. Overnight the lake snow will lift north to the Tug Hill
Plateau and continue to intensify. Model guidance suggests the band
will make its northernmost pass late Thursday night and early
Friday, likely making it into at least southern Jefferson County and
the Northern Tug Hill, before moving back south across the Tug Hill
later Friday. Friday night and Saturday the band will likely head a
little farther south as boundary layer flow becomes WNW, possibly
moving across Oswego County and also impacting northeast Wayne and
northern Cayuga counties.
The band will likely be heavy at times Thursday night through Friday
night, with snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour possible. The band
will likely be moving around with changes in boundary layer flow,
which will spread out snow accumulations to some extent. Still, it
appears there may be enough residence time over the Tug Hill for
significant accumulations of around 2 feet. With this in mind, we
will issue a Lake Effect Snow Watch late Thursday through Saturday
morning for Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties. We may eventually
need to consider a watch for Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties as
well for the end of the event Friday night and Saturday.
Off Lake Erie,
With much drier air and lower inversion heights, and shorter
westerly fetch, expect periods of light snow showers east of the
lake from Thursday night through Friday night. Accumulations will
likely be limited to just an inch or two for each 12 hour period,
and add up to 3-6 inches over the 2 day period across the higher
terrain of Southern Erie, western Wyoming, Chautauqua, and
Cattaraugus counties.
Temperatures will turn steadily colder through the late week, with
Friday the coldest day. Highs will only reach the lower 20s on the
lake plains, and teens across higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
During this period, a large polar low will pinwheel from the Hudson
Bay through northern Quebec. Models seem to be in good agreement on
a brief break in lake effect Saturday night into early Sunday, as
shortwave ridging crosses the region. Then, shortwave troughing will
move across the region late Sunday into Sunday night bringing some
widespread light snow. Cold air and lake effect snows may then
reload for the beginning of the work week as another low moves into
the Hudson Bay region. High temperatures will stay below freezing
during this period, with lows in the single digits in the higher
terrain to teens in the lower terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak clipper system will slide east across New York State through
tonight...before redeveloping off the New England coastline on Wednesday.
The clipper will bring occasional light snow to the region through late
tonight...with the snow then generally tapering off to some scattered
light snow showers or flurries from southwest to northeast through the
balance of the period. The exceptions to this will be east of Lakes Erie
and especially Lake Ontario...where the combination of a marginally cold
airmass and an increasing westerly upslope flow will help to maintain
lake and orographically enhanced snows right through Wednesday. Expect
IFR to MVFR conditions within the snow...with MVFR/VFR conditions more
prevalent outside of it.
Outlook...
Wednesday night and Thursday...Areas of lake effect snow/attendant IFR
east and then southeast of the lakes...with scattered snow showers and
MVFR/VFR elsewhere.
Thursday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers...
and IFR in areas of lake effect snow east of the lakes.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
&&
.MARINE...
A clipper system will slide eastward across New York State tonight. In
its wake...brisk westerly winds will overspread the Lower Great Lakes
later tonight and Wednesday...then will largely persist right through
Saturday. With this in mind...small craft advisories are in effect as
outlined below.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Watch from Thursday afternoon through
Saturday morning for NYZ006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday for NYZ006>008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ012-
019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Saturday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 PM EST
Saturday for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
Sunday for LOZ044-045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJRHazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 4:45 AM EST, 10 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 NYZ001-002-010-011-010945- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF FRESH ACCUMULATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ021-010945- ALLEGANY- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH ACCUMULATION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY IF A CONSOLIDATED BAND DEVELOPS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ003-013-014-010945- MONROE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ004-005-010945- WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY OCCASIONALLY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES AS THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES WEST-NORTHWEST AT TIMES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ006>008-010945- OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL TARGET THE TUG HILL REGION AND OSWEGO COUNTY AT TIMES...WITH VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS FORCING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO MOVE WITH TIME. IF A CONSOLIDATED BAND IS ABLE TO FORM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-010945- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ019-020-010945- CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IF A CONSOLIDATED BAND DEVELOPS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ012-085-010945- WYOMING-SOUTHERN ERIE- 445 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 31, 9:08 AM EST, 5 hours 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
908 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW FULTON LOCK O3 43.32N 76.42W
01/31/2017 M4.0 INCH OSWEGO NY COOP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. COOP OBSERVER
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1700363
SJWLocal storm report, Jan 31, 9:17 AM EST, 5 hours 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
917 AM EST TUE JAN 31 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM SNOW PHOENIX 43.33N 76.27W
01/31/2017 M4.0 INCH OSWEGO NY COOP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER BUF1700364
SJWThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 3:40 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 6 days |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Watches in New York, 2017Every lake effect snow watch in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.