Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2017
Lake Effect Snow Warning 7, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 19, 2017, 2:31 PM EST for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Nov 19, 2017, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 22 hr. 8 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 19, 2017, 2:31 PM EST (19:31 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 19, 2017, 7:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Nov 20, 2017, 4:55 PM EST
- In force
- 22 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 4 | 2 Sse Palermo, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Nov 20, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 4 | 7 Nne Phoenix, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Nov 20, 10:40 AM EST | SNOW 5 | 1 Ese Conquest, NY | |
| Nov 20, 1:00 PM EST | SNOW 10 | N Osceola, NY | |
| Nov 20, 1:10 PM EST | SNOW 6.5 | Barnes Corners, NY | |
| Nov 20, 1:10 PM EST | SNOW 8.5 | Lorraine, NY | |
| Nov 20, 2:00 PM EST | SNOW 5 | Port Leyden, NY | |
| Nov 20, 3:26 PM EST | SNOW 7 | Lacona, NY |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 713 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 99 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 322 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 330 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
299
WWUS41 KBUF 191931
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
NYZ005-006-200345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0004.171119T2100Z-171121T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0007.171120T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.
Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the
most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...7 PM today to 6 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4371 7529 4377 7609 4374 7622
4359 7625 4356 7643 4347 7656 4340 7586 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y17M11D15T0000Z-Y17M11D15T0600Z
$$
NYZ004-200345-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.171120T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the morning commute on Monday. In addition,
areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne county.
* WHEN...7 PM today to 10 AM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$
NYZ012-200345-
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-
Including the city of Warsaw
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on slippery road conditions. In
addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wyoming county.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$
NYZ019-020-085-200345-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
231 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause
areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$
TMA10 follow-up statements
350
WWUS41 KBUF 191945
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
NYZ005-006-200345-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.171120T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.
Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the
most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...7 PM today to 6 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4331 7584 4340 7613 4336 7638 4338 7653
4329 7672 4322 7670 4324 7645 4315 7669 4311 7670
4320 7647 4305 7650 4324 7622 4320 7587 4326 7619
4324 7586
TIME Y17M11D20T0000Z-Y17M11D20T1200Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-200345-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$
NYZ004-200345-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.171120T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the morning commute on Monday. In addition,
areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne county.
* WHEN...7 PM today to 10 AM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$610
WWUS41 KBUF 192017
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
317 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
NYZ005-006-200430-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.171120T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
317 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.
Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected in the
most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...7 PM today to 6 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4331 7588 4336 7617 4337 7650 4334 7659
4328 7661 4324 7648 4323 7616 4317 7597 4328 7620
4324 7586
TIME Y17M11D20T0000Z-Y17M11D20T1200Z
COORD...4365 7575 4370 7583 4365 7602 4353 7611
4350 7620 4352 7641 4341 7667 4327 7655 4327 7586
4340 7586
TIME Y17M11D20T1200Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-200430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
317 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$
NYZ004-200430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.171120T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
317 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the morning commute on Monday. In addition,
areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne county.
* WHEN...7 PM today to 10 AM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$288
WWUS41 KBUF 200016
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
716 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
NYZ005-006-200830-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
716 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Monday.
Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Western Oswego counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4336 7590 4339 7598 4337 7629 4340 7628
4340 7673 4329 7672 4327 7652 4322 7631 4328 7620
4332 7594
TIME Y17M11D20T0000Z-Y17M11D20T1200Z
COORD...4342 7586 4346 7581 4350 7563 4355 7565
4357 7586 4352 7620 4353 7650 4336 7680 4325 7661
4320 7587
TIME Y17M11D20T1200Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-200830-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
716 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$
NYZ004-200830-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
716 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the morning commute on Monday. Additional snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne county, mainly lakeshore east of Sodus Bay.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will
cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
&&
$$194
WWUS41 KBUF 200623
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
NYZ005-006-201430-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
123 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the Monday morning commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit storm reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4336 7590 4339 7598 4337 7629 4340 7628
4340 7673 4329 7672 4327 7652 4322 7631 4328 7620
4332 7594
TIME Y17M11D20T0000Z-Y17M11D20T1200Z
COORD...4342 7586 4346 7581 4350 7563 4355 7565
4357 7586 4352 7620 4353 7650 4336 7680 4325 7661
4320 7587
TIME Y17M11D20T1200Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-201430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
123 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring from 1 AM to 1 PM today.
Plan on slippery road conditions. Additional snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause
areas of blowing snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit storm reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ004-201430-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
123 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring from 1 AM to 10 AM today.
Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning
commute. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are
expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne county.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit storm reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$724
WWUS41 KBUF 200910
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
NYZ005-006-201715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
410 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the morning commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4336 7590 4339 7598 4337 7629 4340 7628
4340 7673 4329 7672 4327 7652 4322 7631 4328 7620
4332 7594
TIME Y17M11D20T0000Z-Y17M11D20T1200Z
COORD...4342 7586 4346 7581 4350 7563 4355 7565
4357 7586 4352 7620 4353 7650 4336 7680 4325 7661
4320 7587
TIME Y17M11D20T1200Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-201715-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
410 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring from 4 AM to 1 PM today.
Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning
commute. Additional snow accumulations of up to 3 inches are
expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
NYZ004-201500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
410 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring from 4 AM to 10 AM today.
Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning
commute. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are
expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne county.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$901
WWUS41 KBUF 201045
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
545 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
NYZ012-019-020-085-201145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
545 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
While light snow showers could leave an additional inch or so of
accumulation this morning in grassy areas...significant lake snow
accumulations are no longer expected.
$$
NYZ005-006-201845-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
545 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the morning commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4336 7590 4339 7598 4337 7629 4340 7628
4340 7673 4329 7672 4327 7652 4322 7631 4328 7620
4332 7594
TIME Y17M11D20T0000Z-Y17M11D20T1200Z
COORD...4342 7586 4346 7581 4350 7563 4355 7565
4357 7586 4352 7620 4353 7650 4336 7680 4325 7661
4320 7587
TIME Y17M11D20T1200Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ004-201500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
545 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring from 5 AM to 10 AM today.
Plan on slippery road conditions, including during the morning
commute. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Wayne county.
* WHEN...Until 10 AM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$015
WWUS41 KBUF 201350
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
850 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
NYZ004-201500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-171120T1500Z/
Wayne-
Including the city of Newark
850 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
The heavy lake effect snow has move north out of the county and is
now impacting areas east of Lake Ontario.
$$
NYZ008-202200-
/O.EXA.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
850 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Lewis county.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4350 7536 4362 7552 4367 7620 4355 7625
4356 7643 4349 7656 4338 7659 4322 7587 4346 7581
4346 7543
TIME Y17M11D20T1300Z-Y17M11D20T1700Z
COORD...4368 7542 4370 7562 4370 7601 4366 7608
4367 7623 4350 7626 4344 7581 4348 7581 4342 7550
4350 7542
TIME Y17M11D20T1700Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ005-006-202200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Fair Haven and Oswego
850 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9
inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, mainly
over Oswego County. Expect only an additional inch or two over
northern Cayuga County.
* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4350 7536 4362 7552 4367 7620 4355 7625
4356 7643 4349 7656 4338 7659 4322 7587 4346 7581
4346 7543
TIME Y17M11D20T1300Z-Y17M11D20T1700Z
COORD...4368 7542 4370 7562 4370 7601 4366 7608
4367 7623 4350 7626 4344 7581 4348 7581 4342 7550
4350 7542
TIME Y17M11D20T1700Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ007-202200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.171120T1350Z-171120T2300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
850 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring through 6 PM today. Plan on
slippery road conditions, including during the evening commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows mainly across far southern
portions of the county and over the Tug Hill.
* WHERE...Jefferson county.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Church387
WWUS41 KBUF 201534
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1034 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
NYZ005-201645-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Northern Cayuga-
Including the city of Fair Haven
1034 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The heavy lake effect snow has moved north and exited the county.
Heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Ontario in
Jefferson, Oswego, and Lewis counties today.
$$
NYZ007-202300-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
1034 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the evening commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are expected
in the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Jefferson county.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4371 7511 4386 7547 4381 7629
4359 7625 4349 7656 4340 7658 4331 7588 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y17M11D20T1500Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ006-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1034 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the evening commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Oswego county.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4371 7511 4386 7547 4381 7629
4359 7625 4349 7656 4340 7658 4331 7588 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y17M11D20T1500Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ008-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
1034 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult
travel conditions, including during the evening commute.
Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected in
the most persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Lewis county.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4371 7511 4386 7547 4381 7629
4359 7625 4349 7656 4340 7658 4331 7588 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y17M11D20T1500Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
Church239
WWUS41 KBUF 201953
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
NYZ006-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
253 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional
snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Oswego county.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4371 7511 4386 7547 4381 7629
4359 7625 4349 7656 4340 7658 4331 7588 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y17M11D20T1500Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
NYZ007-008-202300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
253 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional
snow accumulations of up to 2 inches are expected in the most
persistent lake snows.
* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM today.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4371 7511 4386 7547 4381 7629
4359 7625 4349 7656 4340 7658 4331 7588 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y17M11D20T1500Z-Y17M11D20T2300Z
$$
TMA082 WWUS41 KBUF 202155 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 455 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 NYZ006>008-202300- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-171120T2300Z/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville 455 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... Lingering snow showers will continue to taper off this evening with little if any additional accumulation. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 19, 10:40 AM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 19, 10:40 AM EST, 3 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1040 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm exiting across the Saint Lawrence Valley will send a
blast of much colder air across our region through tonight. The
colder air will establish increasingly organized bands of lake
effect snow southeast of both lakes where several inches of snow
are expected by Monday morning. High pressure will pass well to
our south on Monday, but lake snows will persist east of the
lakes.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radars showing synoptic precipitation, nearly all snow
pushing through the North Country. Accumulations here generally up
to two inches, but with marginal temperatures only expect
additional accumulations through early afternoon of an inch or
less.
Behind the synoptic precipitation an influx of much colder air
starting to encourage more organized lake effect snow bands,
primed by upstream lake connections. Despite the incoming colder
air aloft, marginal near surface temperatures and only marginal
over-lake instability should limit accumulations through the
daytime hours to just a couple of inches or so over the terrain
mainly above 1500 feet.
The main lake effect event will get better organized tonight...
First for Lake Erie, the cold air will deepen enough by early
evening if not a bit sooner to cause lake induced equilibrium levels
to lift to 10k ft or better. This, along with nocturnal cooling will
favor higher and more widespread accumulations. Nighttime
accumulations will be in the vcnty of 2 to 4 inches away from the
lake, with the higher amounts being concentrated across the higher
terrain.
Lake Ontario, similar to off Lake Erie, the cold air will deepen
enough by early evening to generate a fairly well organized
band of lake snow focused most likely on Wayne and northern
Cayuga counties. Lake equilibrium levels will lift to more than
10k ft with a fairly solid upstream connection becoming established
with Georgian Bay. While this will lead to increased snowfall
rates, the band is forecast to oscillate enough to keep the snow
from accumulating more than 3 to 5 inches in any one spot from
the northeast corner of Wayne County to south central Oswego
County. Will maintain the winter storm watch for lake effect
snow for this area and allow additional guidance to help in
doing additional fine tuning. It continues to look like the most
significant lake snows in this area should occur from late
tonight through Monday.
For the remainder of western New York and the North Country, through
this afternoon temperatures will be near steady or fall off a bit
with cold blustery winds. Gusts to 40 mph will be possible near the
lake shores and across higher terrain, and with temperatures
generally in the 30s, wind chill values will be in the teens
and twenties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The opening 24 hours of this period will feature surface-based
ridging over the Deep South sliding eastward and off the Atlantic
coastline...while low pressure over the Canadian Plains slides
east toward Hudson Bay. As a result...the cold westerly to west-
northwesterly flow that will be over our region at the start of
Monday morning will gradually back to southwesterly and give way
a strengthening warm air advection regime. Consequently...ongoing
lake snows downwind of the lakes will gradually lift northward
and steadily weaken during Monday...before falling apart altogether
Monday night.
Looking more specifically at the evolution of the lake effect...
off Lake Erie a general 270-280 flow at the start of Monday will
initially focus light to modest lake snows across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier and Southern Erie/Wyoming counties
at daybreak. As the day progresses...the activity will steadily
weaken and lift northward as the low level flow steadily backs
and becomes increasingly sheared...and background synoptic scale
moisture/inversion heights crash. This should result in the lake
snows degenerating to scattered remnant mixed rain and snow showers
by Monday afternoon...and then to a few leftover sprinkles/flurries
across the Buffalo area late Monday/early Monday evening - before
dying out altogether by late Monday evening. Expect additional
accumulations out of the Lake Erie activity on Monday to be on
the order of an inch or two...with these primarily focused across
the ski country.
Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...a general west-northwesterly flow and
an upstream connection to Georgian Bay will help to focus a fairly
cohesive band of moderate snow across areas southeast of the lake at
the start of Monday. As the morning progresses...this band will slowly
lift north toward the Tug Hill while beginning to weaken with the loss
of its upstream connection...though this may be at least partially
counteracted by the improving fetch across the long axis of the lake...
and increasing interaction with the Tug Hill. During the afternoon
the band will continue lift north to the Tug Hill proper and will
continue to gradually weaken with increasing shear and slowly falling
inversion heights...before lifting north to the Watertown area Monday
night and dissipating due to further increases in shear and more
rapid crashing of the subsidence inversion. Additional accumulations
out of the Lake Ontario activity during Monday should range on the
order of 3-6" in the most persistent snows...with the bulk of these
focused from northeastern Wayne to Oswego and southern Lewis counties...
where the band will be most organized during its northward migration.
Only minor additional accumulations of under an inch are then expected
Monday night as the activity dissipates across the North Country.
Outside of the main lake effect areas...the Monday-Monday night time
frame will merely be quiet and dry...albeit with continued moderately
brisk winds as a decent pressure gradient will remain intact across
our region. With respect to temperatures...highs on Monday will range
from the mid to upper 30s over the higher terrain to the lower 40s
across the lake plains of far western New York...with mainly evening
lows in the 30s Monday night giving way to rising temperatures
overnight as warm air advection strengthens across our region.
As we move into Tuesday...the aforementioned surface low will slowly
drift east into North Central Quebec...while slowly dragging its
trailing cold front in our direction. At this juncture...it still
appears that the front will remain too far to our west to bring any
showers into our region during the daylight hours...so have removed
any mention of such from the forecast...with fairly plentiful sunshine
through midday/early afternoon only giving way to some increasing
clouds during the mid to late afternoon hours. With a tightening
pressure gradient in place out ahead of the cold front...we can also
expect another round of rather breezy to windy conditions to develop
during Tuesday...with the strongest winds found across far WNY which
will lie under an axis of stronger (40-50 knot) flow in the 925-850
mb layer. While the continued warm air advection regime will prevent
these stronger winds from totally mixing down to the surface...the
prevailing south-southwesterly low level flow may still be supportive
of some wind gusts approaching advisory levels across Niagara and
portions of Northern Erie Counties...as well as along the Lake Erie
shoreline. Otherwise it will be a rather mild day...with the breezy
to windy conditions...fairly plentiful sunshine...and 925 mb temps
of +4C to +7C leading to widespread high temperatures in the lower
to mid 50s.
Tuesday night the surface low will gradually lift toward the Ungava
Peninsula while dragging its trailing cold front across our region.
Low level convergence and moisture pooling along the boundary should
be just enough to produce a broken band of rain showers as it passes
through our region...with modest cold advection behind the front
possibly forcing a mix with/changeover to a little wet snow before
these quickly end from west to east. Otherwise...the cold advection
regime behind the front will result in low temperatures falling
back to between the upper 20s and mid 30s.
In the wake of the front...high pressure with colder and much drier
air will then build across the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.
While the airmass will be plenty cold enough to support a lake response
east and/or southeast of the lakes...its rather dry nature should limit
this to just some scattered light snow showers during Wednesday...with
these then likely falling apart altogether Wednesday night as the ridge
crests overhead. As such... conditions should be good for pre-Thanksgiving
travel across our area...with high temps in the mid to upper 30s Wednesday
followed by lows ranging through the 20s Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moving on into the extended portion of the forecast...the really good
news is that Thanksgiving Day itself should feature continued fair dry
weather as sprawling surface-based ridging remains in place a little to
the south of our area. Otherwise...high temperatures will again generally
range between 35 and 40 degrees.
Thursday night and Friday model solutions begin to diverge a little
with the GFS keeping us under the influence of high pressure and
therefore dry...while the ECMWF drags a weak cold front through
Northern New York Thursday night...before rebuilding high pressure
across our area during Friday. At worst...this would result in a
chance of snow showers across the North Country Thursday night...
with dry weather and somewhat below average temperatures otherwise
continuing.
After that...both guidance packages suggest that another low will
pass by to our north sometime during the Friday night-Saturday time
frame...while in the process dragging another cold front across our
region. This should translate into renewed chances for rain and snow
showers to close out the week...along with near to slightly below
normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cigs will average 1500-2500 feet for all of the TAF sites. The only
IFR conditions will be found southeast of Lake Erie where lake snows
will limit vsbys to 2 miles or less at times for KJHW and
possibly KOLE. There will also be fairly strong winds over the
western counties through the day, with surface gusts as high as
35 knots near the lakes and across elevated TAF sites.
For tonight, generally VFR conditions will be found at the major TAF
sites, however lake snows southeast of both lakes will produce MVFR
to IFR conditions for KJHW and sites east of KROC.
Outlook...
Monday...Lake effect SN, IFR SE of lakes, otherwise VFR/MVFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...Rain and snow showers with a
chance of MVFR/IFR.
Thursday...VFR, but MVFR in lake effect snow showers E of the lakes.
&&
.MARINE...
A tight pressure gradient left in the wake of a strong storm exiting
across the St Lawrence Valley will maintain gale force winds across
Lake Ontario this afternoon, although the bulk of the actual gales
will come from the frequent gusts. Meanwhile, small craft advisories
will stay in place for Lake Erie as well the Buffalo Harbor and
entire length of the Niagara River.
Winds will subside somewhat tonight, as expansive high pressure over
the southern plains drifts to the east across the the southern
states. This will weaken the pressure gradient while also
establishing a warm advective pattern, which is less conducive
for low level mixing.
Fresh to strong southwesterlies found ahead of the next cold front
on Tuesday will keep rough conditions in place on Lake Erie.
Meanwhile offshore winds for the bulk of Lake Ontario will direct
the highest waves into canadian waters. The exception will be over
the northeast portion of the lake, north of Mexico Bay.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Developing very strong onshore winds will build significant wave
action along the Lake Ontario shoreline today and into tonight.
The combination of already higher lake levels and continued
wave action will result in increased shoreline erosion, especially
where the lakeshore is already unstable from erosion earlier in
the year.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>007.
Winter Storm Watch from 4 PM EST this afternoon through Monday
evening for NYZ005-006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ019-020-
085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for LOZ042>045-
062>065.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA/JJRHazardous weather outlook, Nov 19, 12:45 PM EST, 1 hour 46 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 NYZ001-002-201745- Niagara-Orleans- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lakeshore Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003-004-201745- Monroe-Wayne- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lakeshore Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ005-006-201745- Northern Cayuga-Oswego- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lakeshore Flood Warning. Winter Storm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-201745- Jefferson- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lakeshore Flood Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ008-201745- Lewis- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ010-011-013-014-201745- Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-021-201745- Wyoming-Allegany- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-020-085-201745- Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-201745- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1245 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2017Every lake effect snow warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.