Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2017

Lake Effect Snow Warning 11, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 14, 20175 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Dec 14, 2017, 9:46 PM EST for 5 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 15, 2017, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 21 hr. 24 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 14, 2017, 9:46 PM EST (02:46 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 15, 2017, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 16, 2017, 3:56 PM EST
In force
21 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 16, 5:00 AM ESTSNOW 61 Sw Pulaski, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 5:10 AM ESTSNOW 18.5Highmarket, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 12.14 Sse Lacona, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 141 E Osceola, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 201 Nw Constableville, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 41 S Dunkirk, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 41 Sw Dunkirk, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 55 N Allegany, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.24 Ene Jamestown, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.5Sse Ischua, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 61 Ne Pulaski, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 71 Ene Randolph, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 11Little Valley, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 12.5Port Leyden, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 17.18 N Redfield, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 6.5Jamestown Airport, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 8:37 AM ESTSNOW 9.51 Nne Franklinville, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 9:00 AM ESTSNOW 92 Sw Forestville, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 9:30 AM ESTSNOW 10.5Napoli, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 10:10 AM ESTSNOW 10.3Perrysburg, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 16, 12:41 PM ESTSNOW 42 Sw Fulton, NY
Dec 16, 12:41 PM ESTSNOW 82 Nw Fulton, NY
Dec 16, 2:00 PM ESTSNOW 91 Sse Silver Creek, NY
Dec 16, 4:00 PM ESTSNOW 15Fredonia, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-12-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-12-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 35 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
867 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
85 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

110 
WWUS41 KBUF 150246
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
946 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

NYZ006-151100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-171215T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
946 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate to occasionally heavy lake snow overnight will
  accumulate 3 to 6 inches. Heavy lake effect snow expected Friday
  night and Saturday with 6 to 12 inches expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows. Travel will be difficult tonight and very
  difficult Friday night and Saturday morning. 

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 AM Friday. For
  the Lake Effect Snow Warning, 10 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4359 7525 4367 7575 4365 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4343 7661 4337 7644 4331 7588 4346 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T1800Z

$$

NYZ007-151100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1500Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
946 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are
  expected in the most persistent lake snows south of Watertown.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...10 PM Friday to 10 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z

$$

NYZ008-151100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
946 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Lewis county.

* WHEN...10 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4359 7525 4367 7575 4365 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4343 7661 4337 7644 4331 7588 4346 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T1800Z

$$

NYZ001-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171215T1600Z-171216T0300Z/
Niagara-
Including the city of Niagara Falls
946 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions, including during the evening commute on Friday. 
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara county.

* WHEN...11 AM to 10 PM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171215T2100Z-171216T0600Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
946 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO
1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions, including during the evening commute on Friday. 
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...4 PM Friday to 1 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-151100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0008.171216T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
946 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches 
  are possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$
8 follow-up statements
549 
WWUS41 KBUF 150902
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

NYZ019-020-151715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.171216T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Tree branches could 
  fall as well.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4239 7911 4243 7923 4252 7923 4249 7945 
        4232 7975 4214 7977 4218 7944 4222 7941 4222 7917 
        4228 7904 
TIME Y17M12D16T0000Z-Y17M12D16T0600Z
COORD...4231 7868 4239 7911 4236 7968 4232 7975 
        4201 7976 4199 7956 4203 7923 4201 7903 4209 7890 
        4216 7865 
TIME Y17M12D16T0600Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ006-151715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-171215T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow will end this morning. Another round
  will begin tonight becoming heavy at times. Plan on difficult
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of an inch or
  less are expected in the most persistent lake snows this morning.
  Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows tonight. 

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 AM today. For 
  the Lake Effect Snow Warning, 10 PM today to 1 PM Saturday. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Be prepared for 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4359 7525 4367 7575 4365 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4343 7661 4337 7644 4331 7588 4346 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T1800Z

$$

NYZ007-151715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1500Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches 
  are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 10 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z

$$

NYZ008-151715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Lewis county.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4359 7525 4367 7575 4365 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4343 7661 4337 7644 4331 7588 4346 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T1800Z

$$

NYZ012-085-151715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0008.171216T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171216T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Tree 
  branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 
  7 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Western Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-151715-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171215T1600Z-171216T0300Z/
Niagara-
Including the city of Niagara Falls
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara county.

* WHEN...11 AM to 10 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-151715-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171215T2100Z-171216T0600Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
402 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on poor visibility and
  slippery conditions, including during the evening commute. 
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 1 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
HSK
184 
WWUS41 KBUF 151150
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

NYZ006-152000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-171215T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Another round will begin tonight becoming heavy at 
  times. Plan on difficult travel conditions. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 11 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows tonight.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Lake Effect Snow Warning, 10 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Be prepared for 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4359 7525 4367 7575 4365 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4343 7661 4337 7644 4331 7588 4346 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T1800Z

$$

NYZ007-152000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1500Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches 
  are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 10 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z

$$

NYZ008-152000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Lewis county.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7531 4418 7586 4406 7640 
        4386 7637 4365 7623 4359 7564 4374 7555 4380 7530 
        4391 7516 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4392 7525 4385 7544 4392 7561 4391 7600 
        4385 7629 4355 7625 4345 7570 4345 7555 4354 7534 
        4364 7527 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4359 7525 4367 7575 4365 7623 4355 7625 
        4356 7643 4343 7661 4337 7644 4331 7588 4346 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T1800Z

$$

NYZ019-020-152000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. Tree branches could 
  fall as well.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4239 7911 4243 7923 4252 7923 4249 7945 
        4232 7975 4214 7977 4218 7944 4222 7941 4222 7917 
        4228 7904 
TIME Y17M12D16T0000Z-Y17M12D16T0600Z
COORD...4231 7868 4239 7911 4236 7968 4232 7975 
        4201 7976 4199 7956 4203 7923 4201 7903 4209 7890 
        4216 7865 
TIME Y17M12D16T0600Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ012-085-152000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171216T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions, including during the evening commute. Tree 
  branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 
  7 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Western Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-152000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171215T1600Z-171216T0300Z/
Niagara-
Including the city of Niagara Falls
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara county.

* WHEN...11 AM to 10 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-152000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171215T2100Z-171216T0600Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
650 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on poor visibility and 
  slippery conditions, including during the evening commute. 
  Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the 
  most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 1 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
209 
WWUS41 KBUF 151831
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
131 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

NYZ007-160245-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1500Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
131 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 10 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4372 7544 4385 7559 4392 7561 4394 7566 
        4395 7578 4392 7591 4389 7598 4381 7602 4379 7612 
        4369 7614 4360 7615 4357 7606 4352 7556 4354 7556 
        4357 7544 4362 7545 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z

$$

NYZ006-008-160245-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
131 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4372 7544 4385 7559 4392 7561 4394 7566 
        4395 7578 4392 7591 4389 7598 4381 7602 4379 7612 
        4369 7614 4360 7615 4357 7606 4352 7556 4354 7556 
        4357 7544 4362 7545 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4354 7556 4355 7568 4357 7568 4360 7588 
        4359 7601 4357 7609 4353 7614 4345 7612 4341 7598 
        4339 7598 4338 7587 4348 7581 4345 7570 4342 7550 
        4347 7570 4345 7548 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T1800Z

$$

NYZ019-020-160245-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
131 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow. Expect significant
  reductions in visibilities in falling and blowing snow.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4227 7845 4230 7859 4239 7879 4243 7928 
        4239 7962 4232 7975 4212 7978 4199 7977 4201 7947 
        4199 7947 4201 7923 4199 7923 4199 7876 4205 7869 
        4212 7848 4219 7850 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ012-085-160245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171216T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
131 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...7 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow and blowing snow will result in snow covered
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-160245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T0300Z/
Niagara-
Including the city of Niagara Falls
131 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Additional 
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Niagara county.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-160245-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.171215T2100Z-171216T0600Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
131 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the evening commute. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county.

* WHEN...4 PM today to 1 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Thomas
413 
WWUS41 KBUF 160110
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

NYZ001-160215-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T0300Z/
Niagara-
Including the city of Niagara Falls
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snows have tapered off with no additional accumulation expected.

$$

NYZ010-160215-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T0600Z/
Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


Snows have tapered off with no additional accumulation expected.

$$

NYZ007-160915-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1500Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Jefferson county. Greatest amounts near the Tug Hill.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 10 AM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7578 4412 7593 4413 7602 4403 7613 
        4396 7629 4384 7631 4363 7623 4360 7594 4369 7570 
        4377 7570 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0700Z
COORD...4393 7515 4392 7543 4394 7588 4387 7622 
        4370 7625 4350 7623 4346 7606 4347 7570 4345 7552 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y17M12D16T0700Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z

$$

NYZ006-008-160915-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.171216T0300Z-171216T1800Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties. Greatest amounts on the Tug
  Hill.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4398 7578 4412 7593 4413 7602 4403 7613 
        4396 7629 4384 7631 4363 7623 4360 7594 4369 7570 
        4377 7570 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0700Z
COORD...4393 7515 4392 7543 4394 7588 4387 7622 
        4370 7625 4350 7623 4346 7606 4347 7570 4345 7552 
        4360 7513 
TIME Y17M12D16T0700Z-Y17M12D16T1200Z
COORD...4352 7539 4359 7558 4363 7561 4366 7587 
        4360 7618 4351 7629 4342 7628 4333 7587 4348 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T1200Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ019-020-160915-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 
  14 inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4245 7851 4248 7886 4255 7918 4255 7936 
        4232 7975 4201 7976 4203 7947 4215 7909 4219 7876 
        4228 7836 
TIME Y17M12D16T0000Z-Y17M12D16T0300Z
COORD...4232 7853 4247 7872 4245 7928 4239 7953 
        4230 7975 4199 7977 4201 7944 4206 7934 4212 7868 
        4219 7855 
TIME Y17M12D16T0300Z-Y17M12D16T0900Z
COORD...4227 7845 4239 7879 4243 7928 4239 7962 
        4232 7975 4199 7977 4199 7947 4199 7876 4205 7869 
        4212 7848 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ021-160915-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-085-160915-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
810 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel
418 
WWUS41 KBUF 160846
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
346 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

NYZ007-161500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T1500Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
346 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Extreme southern Jefferson county.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4367 7512 4374 7555 4374 7625 
        4359 7625 4356 7643 4350 7647 4346 7630 4348 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ006-008-161700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
346 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4367 7512 4374 7555 4374 7625 
        4359 7625 4356 7643 4350 7647 4346 7630 4348 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ019-020-161700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
346 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4234 7850 4247 7848 4257 7858 4260 7875 
        4243 7955 4232 7975 4201 7976 4214 7915 4216 7891 
        4228 7856 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ012-085-161700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
346 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-161700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
346 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
177 
WWUS41 KBUF 161151
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

NYZ007-161300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T1500Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
651 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Lake effect snows have shifted to the south of the county and are
no longer expected to affect the area.

$$

NYZ006-008-161800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
651 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4367 7512 4374 7555 4374 7625 
        4359 7625 4356 7643 4350 7647 4346 7630 4348 7581 
        4342 7550 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ019-020-162000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
651 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4234 7850 4247 7848 4257 7858 4260 7875 
        4243 7955 4232 7975 4201 7976 4214 7915 4216 7891 
        4228 7856 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ012-085-161800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
651 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-162000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
651 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
251 
WWUS41 KBUF 161814
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
114 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

NYZ006-008-161915-
/O.EXP.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
114 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

$$

NYZ012-085-170000-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0028.171216T1814Z-171217T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
114 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-162100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
114 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult 
  travel conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4234 7850 4247 7848 4257 7858 4260 7875 
        4243 7955 4232 7975 4201 7976 4214 7915 4216 7891 
        4228 7856 
TIME Y17M12D16T0900Z-Y17M12D16T2100Z

$$

NYZ021-170000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171217T0000Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
114 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on slippery road 
  conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are 
  expected in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA
708 
WWUS41 KBUF 162056
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
356 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

NYZ019-020-162200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
356 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Lingering snow showers will taper off through this evening.

$$

NYZ012-085-162200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-171217T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
356 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Lingering snow showers will taper off through this evening.

$$

NYZ021-162200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0027.000000T0000Z-171217T0000Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
356 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Lingering snow showers will taper off through this evening.

$$

Apffel

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Dec 14, 6:51 PM EST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 14, 6:51 PM EST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track into Michigan on Friday and then to New
England Saturday. This will result in periods of lake effect
snow during and below normal temperatures. High pressure will
return to the region Saturday night and Sunday with fair
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley tonight...while a
clipper low will move into Michigan. As a result winds will diminish
this evening, then gradually shift from the northwest to the
southwest late tonight. Although it will still be dry, the
diminishing winds and a modest increase in moisture will allow lake
effect snow to intensify a bit tonight. Meanwhile temperatures are
cold enough just above the surface to support dendritic snow growth
despite relatively low equilibrium levels. This is supported by
persistent snow showers earlier today despite only shallow moisture.

Model consensus develops a convergent land breeze on both Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario tonight. This will result in more
organized lake effect snows which may be enhanced by upstream
moisture from Lake Huron. Model QPF is minimal, with the NAM
forecasting hardly any measurable precipitation. Even so, dry
air can be overcome when banding develops and if it does there
will be a considerable 'fluff factor' given the temperatures the
snow is forming at.

Expect the steadiest snows to be focused near Oswego county
where 3 to 6 inches is forecast. Off Lake Erie, expect 2 to 4
inches in Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties. In each case,
the greatest amounts will be near the immediate shoreline due to
the light winds. This is a difficult forecast since band
intensity may vary given subtle differences in moisture and snow
ratio.

On Friday, winds will shift to the SSW as the clipper low moves
closer. This will result in a brief burst of snow from Buffalo
to Niagara Falls with 1-2 inches of snow possible Friday morning near
the lakeshore. A similar story for the Watertown area off Lake
Ontario. After this, bands will mainly impact Canada most of
Friday afternoon. The exception is across western portions of
Niagara county where a few inches of snow is likely depending on
the exact location of the lake effect band. Otherwise, expect
mainly dry weather outside of the lake effect bands.

Otherwise, temperatures will continue to be below normal tonight
with lows ranging from the single digits to mid teens. Highs on
Friday will 'warm' slightly into the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday evening will become very active again as another clipper
passes by just north of Lake Ontario. The clipper will do little by
itself, with just some light snow and less than an inch of
accumulation outside of lake effect/lake enhanced areas.

More importantly, this clipper will produce a much more favorable
environment for heavy lake effect snow. The increased moisture,
synoptic scale ascent, and fresh batch of cold air aloft will raise
lake induced equilibrium levels to over 15K feet off both lakes near
the time of the cold frontal passage. Deep moisture and a deep
dendritic crystal growth zone will support favorable cloud
microphysics. Convergence will max out as the cold front crosses
each lake, and the frontal convergence combines with pre-existing
convergence along bands of lake effect snow already over the lakes.
These scenarios often produce a burst of very heavy snow with
snowfall rates of over 2 inches per hour along with thunder and
lightning, although they typically move quickly across the area as
wind direction changes quickly with the cold frontal passage.

Off Lake Erie...

Late Friday afternoon a band of lake effect snow will be found
across the Niagara Peninsula, extending across Grand Island and into
Niagara County on SSW flow. As the front crosses the area, it will
merge with the lake effect band and intensify it further, with the
band moving fairly quickly south across the Buffalo Metro area. This
may occur during the latter half of the Friday evening commute, and
produce very poor travel conditions for an hour or two. By late
evening the band of snow will move all the way into the western
Southern Tier. It will initially still be strong when it first
arrives in the Southern Tier, with snowfall rates then backing off
overnight but still producing steady accumulations. The lake effect
snow will remain across the western Southern Tier and possibly
Southern Erie and Wyoming counties through Saturday morning, before
increasing shear with the approach of a warm front disrupts the band.

As far as accumulations go, expect 3-6 inches across portions of
Northern Erie and Niagara counties, with much of that falling in
just a 2 hour period during the early evening. Farther south, there
will be an initial quick burst of heavy snow when the bands,
followed by more persistent lake effect snow overnight into Saturday
morning. This may produce totals of 6-10 inches in persistent bands,
although there is some uncertainty on whether bands will be able to
remain over one location long enough to reach warning criteria. With
this in mind, we went with a Winter Storm Watch for lake effect snow
east of Lake Erie for Friday evening through early Saturday
afternoon.

Off Lake Ontario...

Late Friday afternoon a band of lake effect snow will be located on
the Canadian side of the border near Kingston, Ontario in SSW flow.
The front will arrive by late evening and merge with the lake effect
band. This will carry an intensifying band of lake effect snow south
and east across Jefferson County. This band will then further
intensify as it moves into the Tug Hill region, with some of the
mesoscale model guidance suggesting a short period of very high
snowfall rates (3-4 inches per hour) for the Tug Hill during the wee
hours of the morning Saturday. Given a very high cap and a
relatively deep mixed phase layer, have added the LIKELIHOOD of
thunder and lightning with this activity. This will especially be
the case on the Tug Hill where higher terrain aids in the ability
for cloud to ground strikes. On Saturday morning the band will move
a little farther south into northern or central Oswego County and
begin to weaken, with further weakening by midday as shear increases.

As far as accumulations go, for central and northern Jefferson
County accumulations will be limited by the fast band motion, with 2-
4 inches for Watertown and points north and east, although this may
mostly fall in 2 hours. The band, and associated upslope flow will
likely last longer across the Tug Hill Plateau. The longer residence
time combined with potentially very high snowfall rates may produce
8-12 inches accumulation in persistent bands, centered on the Tug
Hill. With this in mind, we went with a Winter Storm Watch for lake
effect snow east of Lake Ontario for Friday evening through early
Saturday afternoon.

Once the lake effect snow diminishes Saturday, the 12Z model
guidance has made some significant changes for Saturday. A trend
that was first captured by the 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF is now shown by
most model and ensemble guidance. The latest models show warm
advection increasing rapidly across the central and eastern Great
Lakes Saturday as a weak wave moves through the Midwest. This warm
advection will spread abundant cloud cover, and possibly a streak of
light snow across western and central NY during the day Saturday
into Saturday evening. Given the big change from previous model
guidance, just introduced a chance of snow showers for now, but if
this trend continues, POPS will need to be increased.

Saturday night and Sunday the warm front will continue to creep
northeast across the region, with any remaining light snow ending as
forcing along the frontal zone weakens. Sunday should remain dry,
with the start of a modest warm up as temperatures rise into the mid
30s for the lower elevations of Western NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the start of next week, model solutions point to a
deamplification of the pattern, as upstream blocking degrades. This
will allow for a more progressive flow of Pacific influenced air
across the Great Lakes region. Expect a warming trend from Sunday
into Monday and Tuesday as upper-level ridging builds across the
eastern Great Lakes. The thermal ridge axis transits the forecast
area on Tuesday as the surface high slips to our east and next wave
moves into the upper Great Lakes, which will push 850 mb
temperatures briefly above the freezing mark Tuesday. Thus high
temperatures slowly improve from the 20/30s on Sunday, to the 30s to
near 40 on Monday, and right around 40 on Tuesday. Precipitation
wise, a southern stream clipper along the warm front may produce
some scattered showers Sunday night. The nearby retreating warm
front boundary combined with weak wave passages in the progressive
flow will then keep some scattered light shower chances in the
forecast through Monday and Monday night. A stronger weather system
will then plow a cold front across the region by Tuesday night,
bringing both showers ahead of the front and lake effect snows and
much cooler air behind the front for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will consolidate into bands east of the
lakes tonight...but this will only impact the KJHW Taf site. Winds
will then shift to the southwest later tonight with lake snows
lifting northward to BUF/IAG/ART by Friday morning. This will result
in a few hours of IFR or lower conditions.

SSW winds will push lake snows mainly north and west of all TAF
locations Friday afternoon, with the exception of IAG which
will be close to these snow bands.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR with IFR in lake effect snow. Expect a few hours
of heavy snow at BUF/IAG/ART Friday evening, then lake effect should
move to the south.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. Lake effect snow showers mainly away from
TAF sites.
Saturday night and Sunday...VFR.
Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory conditions will remain in place for the Lake
Ontario nearshore waters through the first half of tonight...then a
weakening surface pressure gradient will allow winds and waves to
subside.

While relatively light winds will be in place late tonight and early
Friday across the Lower Great Lakes...an approaching area of low
pressure will encourage winds to freshen Friday afternoon and
evening. The increase in winds will be accompanied by renewed lake
snows...which will be heavy on Lake Erie and on the east end of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for
     NYZ001.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     afternoon for NYZ012-019-020-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for NYZ010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/RSH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/RSH
MARINE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 14, 12:45 PM EST, 9 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

NYZ007-008-151745-
Jefferson-Lewis-
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002>005-011-013-014-021-151745-
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-
Allegany-
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-151745-
Niagara-
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-151745-
Oswego-
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019-020-085-151745-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-151745-
Northern Erie-
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-151745-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1245 PM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

HITCHCOCK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 15, 4:07 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF38 hr
Dec 15, 5:26 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFErie94 min
Dec 15, 4:57 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementBUFJefferson108 min

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2017Every lake effect snow warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.