Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Advisories in 2017
Lake Effect Snow Advisory 10, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow advisory at Feb 9, 2017, 3:52 AM EST for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 9, 2017, 10:00 PM EST. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 9, 2017, 3:52 AM EST (08:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 9, 2017, 10:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 10, 2017, 6:27 AM EST
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 943 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 75 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 80 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
456 WWUS41 KBUF 090852 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 352 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 NYZ004>006-091700- /O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0006.170210T0300Z-170210T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 352 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and southwestern Oswego counties. * TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 6 inches overnight and up to 2 inches Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. && $$ NYZ003-091700- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/ Monroe- Including the city of Rochester 352 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. * LOCATIONS...Monroe county. * TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches overnight and up to 2 inches Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times. * IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. && $$ JJR
7 follow-up statements
144 WWUS41 KBUF 091444 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 944 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 NYZ003>006-092245- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 944 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...Monroe...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and southwestern Oswego counties. * TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 6 inches tonight and up to 2 inches tomorrow...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. && $$ Thomas
687 WWUS41 KBUF 091703 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1203 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 NYZ019-100115- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.170209T1703Z-170210T0300Z/ Chautauqua- Including the city of Jamestown 1203 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory...which is in effect until 10 PM EST this evening. * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua County. Highest snow totals towards the western part of the county. * TIMING...Through late this evening. * ACCUMULATIONS...Additional 2 to 3 inches of snow through this evening, bringing event total to 3 to 6 inches of snow. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * VISIBILITIES...A half mile or less at times. * IMPACTS...Lake effect snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag bufwx && $$ NYZ003>006-100115- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 1203 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...Monroe...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and southwestern Oswego counties. * TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 6 inches overnight and up to 2 inches Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. && $$ Thomas
123 WWUS41 KBUF 092339 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 639 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 NYZ003>006-100745- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 639 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...Wayne...Monroe...and Northern Cayuga counties as well as far southwestern portions of Oswego county. * TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon. The heaviest snows will develop late tonight and impact the Friday morning commute. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches overnight and 1 to 3 inches Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * VISIBILITIES...As low as a quarter mile at times. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. && $$ NYZ019-100300- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170210T0300Z/ Chautauqua- Including the city of Jamestown 639 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * LOCATIONS...Chautauqua County. * TIMING...Through late this evening. * ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 1 to 2 inches in most persistent snows this evening. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph. * VISIBILITIES...Below as a half mile at times. * IMPACTS...Lake effect snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag bufwx && $$
810 WWUS41 KBUF 100237 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 937 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 NYZ019-100345- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170210T0300Z/ Chautauqua- Including the city of Jamestown 937 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Lake Effect Snow Advisory. $$ NYZ003>006-101045- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 937 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...Wayne...Monroe...and Northern Cayuga counties as well as far southwestern portions of Oswego county. * TIMING...Through early Friday afternoon. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches overnight and 1 to 3 inches Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * VISIBILITIES...Below a quarter mile at times. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. Lake effect snow bands will be mobile but intense. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. && $$
802 WWUS41 KBUF 100850 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 350 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 NYZ003>006-101700- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/ Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 350 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...Wayne...Monroe...and Northern Cayuga counties as well as far southwestern portions of Oswego county. * TIMING...Through early this afternoon. * ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. * VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times. * WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. * IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in road and visibility conditions. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo. && $$ JJR
080
WWUS41 KBUF 100933
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
433 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017
NYZ003>005-101800-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0005.170210T0933Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
433 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Warning...which is in effect until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
The Lake Effect Snow Advisory is no longer in effect.
* LOCATIONS...Wayne...mainly far northeastern Monroe...and
northern Cayuga counties.
* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.
* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 5 to 10 inches.
* VISIBILITIES...As low as a quarter mile at times.
* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will
produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and
snow covered roads.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4319 7659 4331 7693 4333 7738 4331 7738
4336 7770 4326 7763 4320 7743 4302 7662 4302 7650
4309 7648
TIME Y17M02D10T1000Z-Y17M02D10T1800Z
$$
NYZ006-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
433 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...far southwestern portions of Oswego county.
* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.
* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional inch or two today.
* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.
* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will
produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and
snow covered roads.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.
&&
$$
JJR456
WWUS41 KBUF 101127
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
627 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017
NYZ006-101230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
627 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Lake
Effect Snow Advisory.
While a few additional snow showers and minor accumulations
will remain possible across far southwestern portions of the
county this morning...the threat of more significant lake snows
appears to have ended. Therefore the advisory has been cancelled.
$$
NYZ003>005-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
627 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS...Far northeastern Monroe...Wayne...and northern
Cayuga counties.
* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.
* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 3 to 6 inches in the most
persistent snows today.
* VISIBILITIES...As low as a quarter mile at times.
* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will
produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and
snow covered roads.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4319 7659 4331 7693 4333 7738 4331 7738
4336 7770 4326 7763 4320 7743 4302 7662 4302 7650
4309 7648
TIME Y17M02D10T1000Z-Y17M02D10T1800Z
$$
JJRWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow advisory went out at Feb 9, 1:00 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 9, 1:00 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
100 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing by well to our south overnight will bring a
brief period of light snow and some minor accumulations of an inch
or two across the Southern Tier and portions of the Finger Lakes.
Lake snows will then develop southeast of both lakes Thursday
afternoon and continue into Friday morning...before giving way
to a more general light snowfall Friday afternoon.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Overnight...low pressure passing by well to our south will bring a
quick shot of some light snow to areas from the Southern Tier
northeastward across portions of the Finger Lakes and North
Country...with the snow then tapering off late as the system pulls
off the East Coast. Expect a general inch or less out of this in
most places...with perhaps up to 2 inches falling near the NY/PA
border. North of this system...some light lake effect snow showers
will also affect areas closer to the Lake Ontario shore from about
Rochester over to Oswego county...though here any accumulations
should remain very light and well under an inch. Otherwise expect
a much colder night with overnight lows dipping into the teens in
most locations.
Thursday morning an upper level trough will pass across the region.
There may be a few scattered snow showers along the trough...but it
will not be until later in the afternoon that any lake effect snows
become organized. With 850 hPa temperatures falling to around -20C,
lake instability will become moderate to extreme over the lakes. We
should start to see snows across SW NYS Thursday afternoon, and then
later in the afternoon lake effect snows developing downwind of Lake
Ontario on a northwest wind.
Temperatures Thursday will be below normal, with highs in the teens
to lower twenties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snows will return to portions of the forecast area
during the period as an upper level trough swings across the region
and 850 mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Steering flow turns
to a general 290-300 flow behind this feature lasting through
Thursday night into the first half of Friday. This will focus the
bulk of the lake snows across the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake Erie
and along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Orleans to Oswego
counties. Profiles showing plenty of over-lake instability with
lake induced equilibrium levels between 9k and 11k feet, and
omega collocated in the heart of a fairly deep dendritic growth
zone. The only fly in the ointment is the fact that this favorable
window will be somewhat limited, probably on the order of 9 to 12
hours. This may not be a long enough period to attain warning
criteria snowfall, so still some lower forecaster confidence a this
point. Likely will need the assistance of an upstream connection to
reach localized warning criteria amounts for this event. Plenty of
model support to suggest that this will happen within this type of
flow pattern, but a disagreement to where the best upstream
connection will set.
Friday, the lake effect snow will weaken and shut down by mid day
as a transient narrow ridge of high pressure crosses the forecast
area and backs the flow to south. This high will move east of
the area in the afternoon with the next clipper system and
associated warm frontal boundary arriving quickly, spreading in a
general light snow by late in the day and into Friday night.
Progressive nature of this system and limited associated moisture
should limited snowfall amounts to an inch or so at best, with
perhaps slightly more across the North Country.
The snow associated with the warm frontal system should largely
taper off by Saturday, though the continued presence of a broad warm
advection pattern across the area may result in some light
precipiation. With warming temperatures at the surface lagging the
warm advection aloft, there may be some pockets of of mixed
precipitation as precipiation transitions over to rain, this may
become a concern across the North Country, particularly the Saint
Lawrence and Black River valleys by Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The issue of mixed precipitation/freezing rain may end up being of
particular concern across the North Country, particularly the St.
Lawrence and Black River valleys into Sunday, as a strong northern
stream shortwave is expected to aid in the development of yet
another surface low tracking out of the central Plains and across
the Great Lakes. This low is expected to bring widespread
precipitation to the region, along with warming temperatures Sunday.
It is worth noting that the general synoptic setup with this system
looks quite similar to the system that just brought freezing rain to
the area.
The unsettled weather will continue into the new week, as yet
another shortwave drops across the region Monday, potentially
bringing more rain or snow showers. While temperatures should cool
back off, especially compared to the weekend's relatively balmy
readings, there remains some uncertainty as to the position of the
polar jet, and thus how far south the Arctic air over Canada will
intrude across our area. Should this air make it south across the
Great Lakes, we should see a return of lake effect snow showers
Monday night into Tuesday. However, the ECMWF keeps the jet axis
farther north, resulting in more mild temperatures that would
preclude lake effect development, keeping things dry on Tuesday.
There will be a little change in the mean position of the Eastern
Canadian trough on Wednesday, as ECMWF shows another coastal low
forming with little effect on the sensible weather over the Eastern
Great Lakes...just low chance PoPs with seasonal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overnight...low pressure passing by well to our south will bring a
quick shot of some light snow and IFR conditions to areas from the
Southern Tier northeastward across portions of the Finger Lakes and
North Country...with the snow then tapering off late as the system
pulls off the East Coast. North of this system...some light lake
effect snow showers and attendant IFR/MVFR will also affect areas
closer to the Lake Ontario shore from about Rochester over to Oswego
county. Otherwise...expect a mix of MVFR to VFR.
On Thursday general VFR conditions can be expected outside of some
IFR/MVFR in lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers southeast
of the lakes.
Thursday night...expect areas of IFR in lake effect snow southeast
of the lakes...with a mix of MVFR/VFR prevailing elsewhere.
Outlook...
Friday...MVFR/IFR with areas of lake effect snow southeast of the
lakes in the morning...followed by a more general likelihood of some
light snow Friday afternoon and night.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow.
Sunday...MVFR/VFR. A chance of mixed precipitation across the
North Country...otherwise rain likely.
Monday...MVFR in lake effect snow southeast of the lakes,
otherwise VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Brisk northwest winds will diminish tonight, allowing for small
craft advisories to end on Lake Ontario. An upper level trough
will cross the region tomorrow, and behind this feature an
increase in both northwest flow...and cold air advection will
bring again renewed SCA for both Lake Erie and Ontario Thursday
night and into Friday.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Watch from this evening through Friday
morning for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
LOZ043-044.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMASHazardous weather outlook, Feb 8, 6:33 AM EST, 21 hours 19 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-091200- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston- Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories... and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004>006-091200- Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- 633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Lake Effect Snow Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories... and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-091200- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- 633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie...Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories... and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-008-091200- Jefferson-Lewis- 633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. A low pressure area crossing the region will bring widespread precipitation Saturday into Sunday. Cold air trapped in area valleys may result in precipiation falling as freezing rain, particularly Saturday night into Sunday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories... and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf JJR/WOOD
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 4:06 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 42 hr | |
| Feb 9, 12:03 PM EST | Lake Effect Snow Advisory | BUF | Chautauqua | 10 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Advisories in New York, 2017Every lake effect snow advisory in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.