Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Advisories in 2017

Lake Effect Snow Advisory 10, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 9, 20174 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow advisory at Feb 9, 2017, 3:52 AM EST for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 9, 2017, 10:00 PM EST. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 9, 2017, 3:52 AM EST (08:52 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 9, 2017, 10:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 10, 2017, 6:27 AM EST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cayuga County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-02-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2017-02-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
943 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
75 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
80 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

456 
WWUS41 KBUF 090852
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
352 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

NYZ004>006-091700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0006.170210T0300Z-170210T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
352 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to
1 PM EST Friday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in
effect.

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and southwestern Oswego 
  counties.

* TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 6 inches overnight and up to 2 inches
  Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most
  persistent lake snows.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult
  driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

NYZ003-091700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-
Including the city of Rochester
352 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to
1 PM EST Friday.

* LOCATIONS...Monroe county. 

* TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches overnight and up to 2 inches
  Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 7 inches in the most
  persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult
  driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

JJR
7 follow-up statements
144 
WWUS41 KBUF 091444
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
944 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

NYZ003>006-092245-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
944 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and southwestern
Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 6 inches tonight and up to 2 inches
  tomorrow...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most
persistent lake snows.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult 
  driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

Thomas
687 
WWUS41 KBUF 091703
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1203 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

NYZ019-100115-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.170209T1703Z-170210T0300Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
1203 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Advisory...which is in effect until 10 PM EST this evening.

* LOCATIONS...Chautauqua County. Highest snow totals towards the
  western part of the county. 

* TIMING...Through late this evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Additional 2 to 3 inches of snow through this
  evening, bringing event total to 3 to 6 inches of snow. 

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...A half mile or less at times. 

* IMPACTS...Lake effect snow will produce difficult driving 
conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-100115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
1203 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Monroe...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and 
  southwestern Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 6 inches overnight and up to 2 inches
  Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most persistent
lake snows.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult 
  driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

Thomas
123 
WWUS41 KBUF 092339
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
639 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

NYZ003>006-100745-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
639 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...Monroe...and Northern Cayuga counties as 
well as far southwestern portions of Oswego county.

* TIMING...From late this evening through early Friday afternoon.
  The heaviest snows will develop late tonight and impact the
  Friday morning commute.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches overnight and 1 to 3 inches 
Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most 
persistent lake snows.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a quarter mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow will produce difficult 
  driving conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

NYZ019-100300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170210T0300Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
639 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...Chautauqua County. 

* TIMING...Through late this evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 1 to 2 inches in most persistent
  snows this evening.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Below as a half mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Lake effect snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$
810 
WWUS41 KBUF 100237
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
937 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

NYZ019-100345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-170210T0300Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
937 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Lake
Effect Snow Advisory.

$$

NYZ003>006-101045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.170210T0300Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
937 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...Monroe...and Northern Cayuga counties as 
  well as far southwestern portions of Oswego county.

* TIMING...Through early Friday afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches overnight and 1 to 3 inches 
  Friday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most 
  persistent lake snows.

* VISIBILITIES...Below a quarter mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow
  will produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility
  and snow covered roads. Lake effect snow bands will be mobile
  but intense.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$
802 
WWUS41 KBUF 100850
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

NYZ003>006-101700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
350 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...Monroe...and Northern Cayuga counties as 
  well as far southwestern portions of Oswego county.

* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent
  lake snows.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will 
  produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and 
  snow covered roads. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

JJR
080 
WWUS41 KBUF 100933
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
433 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

NYZ003>005-101800-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0005.170210T0933Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
433 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Warning...which is in effect until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
The Lake Effect Snow Advisory is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...mainly far northeastern Monroe...and
  northern Cayuga counties.

* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 5 to 10 inches.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a quarter mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will 
  produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and 
  snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4319 7659 4331 7693 4333 7738 4331 7738 
        4336 7770 4326 7763 4320 7743 4302 7662 4302 7650 
        4309 7648 
TIME Y17M02D10T1000Z-Y17M02D10T1800Z

$$

NYZ006-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
433 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...far southwestern portions of Oswego county.

* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional inch or two today.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will 
  produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and 
  snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

JJR
456 
WWUS41 KBUF 101127
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
627 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

NYZ006-101230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
627 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Lake
Effect Snow Advisory.

While a few additional snow showers and minor accumulations 
will remain possible across far southwestern portions of the 
county this morning...the threat of more significant lake snows
appears to have ended. Therefore the advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

NYZ003>005-101800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T1800Z/
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
627 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Far northeastern Monroe...Wayne...and northern
  Cayuga counties.

* TIMING...Through early this afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An additional 3 to 6 inches in the most
  persistent snows today.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a quarter mile at times.

* WINDS...Northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* IMPACTS...Periods of lake effect snow and blowing snow will 
  produce difficult driving conditions with poor visibility and 
  snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4319 7659 4331 7693 4333 7738 4331 7738 
        4336 7770 4326 7763 4320 7743 4302 7662 4302 7650 
        4309 7648 
TIME Y17M02D10T1000Z-Y17M02D10T1800Z

$$

JJR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow advisory went out at Feb 9, 1:00 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 9, 1:00 AM EST, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
100 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing by well to our south overnight will bring a
brief period of light snow and some minor accumulations of an inch
or two across the Southern Tier and portions of the Finger Lakes.
Lake snows will then develop southeast of both lakes Thursday
afternoon and continue into Friday morning...before giving way
to a more general light snowfall Friday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Overnight...low pressure passing by well to our south will bring a
quick shot of some light snow to areas from the Southern Tier
northeastward across portions of the Finger Lakes and North
Country...with the snow then tapering off late as the system pulls
off the East Coast. Expect a general inch or less out of this in
most places...with perhaps up to 2 inches falling near the NY/PA
border. North of this system...some light lake effect snow showers
will also affect areas closer to the Lake Ontario shore from about
Rochester over to Oswego county...though here any accumulations
should remain very light and well under an inch. Otherwise expect
a much colder night with overnight lows dipping into the teens in
most locations.

Thursday morning an upper level trough will pass across the region.
There may be a few scattered snow showers along the trough...but it
will not be until later in the afternoon that any lake effect snows
become organized. With 850 hPa temperatures falling to around -20C,
lake instability will become moderate to extreme over the lakes. We
should start to see snows across SW NYS Thursday afternoon, and then
later in the afternoon lake effect snows developing downwind of Lake
Ontario on a northwest wind.

Temperatures Thursday will be below normal, with highs in the teens
to lower twenties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect snows will return to portions of the forecast area
during the period as an upper level trough swings across the region
and 850 mb temperatures fall to around -20C. Steering flow turns
to a general 290-300 flow behind this feature lasting through
Thursday night into the first half of Friday. This will focus the
bulk of the lake snows across the Chautauqua Ridge off Lake Erie
and along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Orleans to Oswego
counties. Profiles showing plenty of over-lake instability with
lake induced equilibrium levels between 9k and 11k feet, and
omega collocated in the heart of a fairly deep dendritic growth
zone. The only fly in the ointment is the fact that this favorable
window will be somewhat limited, probably on the order of 9 to 12
hours. This may not be a long enough period to attain warning
criteria snowfall, so still some lower forecaster confidence a this
point. Likely will need the assistance of an upstream connection to
reach localized warning criteria amounts for this event. Plenty of
model support to suggest that this will happen within this type of
flow pattern, but a disagreement to where the best upstream
connection will set.

Friday, the lake effect snow will weaken and shut down by mid day
as a transient narrow ridge of high pressure crosses the forecast
area and backs the flow to south. This high will move east of
the area in the afternoon with the next clipper system and
associated warm frontal boundary arriving quickly, spreading in a
general light snow by late in the day and into Friday night.
Progressive nature of this system and limited associated moisture
should limited snowfall amounts to an inch or so at best, with
perhaps slightly more across the North Country.

The snow associated with the warm frontal system should largely
taper off by Saturday, though the continued presence of a broad warm
advection pattern across the area may result in some light
precipiation. With warming temperatures at the surface lagging the
warm advection aloft, there may be some pockets of of mixed
precipitation as precipiation transitions over to rain, this may
become a concern across the North Country, particularly the Saint
Lawrence and Black River valleys by Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The issue of mixed precipitation/freezing rain may end up being of
particular concern across the North Country, particularly the St.
Lawrence and Black River valleys into Sunday, as a strong northern
stream shortwave is expected to aid in the development of yet
another surface low tracking out of the central Plains and across
the Great Lakes. This low is expected to bring widespread
precipitation to the region, along with warming temperatures Sunday.
It is worth noting that the general synoptic setup with this system
looks quite similar to the system that just brought freezing rain to
the area.

The unsettled weather will continue into the new week, as yet
another shortwave drops across the region Monday, potentially
bringing more rain or snow showers. While temperatures should cool
back off, especially compared to the weekend's relatively balmy
readings, there remains some uncertainty as to the position of the
polar jet, and thus how far south the Arctic air over Canada will
intrude across our area. Should this air make it south across the
Great Lakes, we should see a return of lake effect snow showers
Monday night into Tuesday. However, the ECMWF keeps the jet axis
farther north, resulting in more mild temperatures that would
preclude lake effect development, keeping things dry on Tuesday.
There will be a little change in the mean position of the Eastern
Canadian trough on Wednesday, as ECMWF shows another coastal low
forming with little effect on the sensible weather over the Eastern
Great Lakes...just low chance PoPs with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overnight...low pressure passing by well to our south will bring a
quick shot of some light snow and IFR conditions to areas from the
Southern Tier northeastward across portions of the Finger Lakes and
North Country...with the snow then tapering off late as the system
pulls off the East Coast. North of this system...some light lake
effect snow showers and attendant IFR/MVFR will also affect areas
closer to the Lake Ontario shore from about Rochester over to Oswego
county. Otherwise...expect a mix of MVFR to VFR.

On Thursday general VFR conditions can be expected outside of some
IFR/MVFR in lingering lake effect clouds and snow showers southeast
of the lakes.

Thursday night...expect areas of IFR in lake effect snow southeast
of the lakes...with a mix of MVFR/VFR prevailing elsewhere.

Outlook...
Friday...MVFR/IFR with areas of lake effect snow southeast of the
lakes in the morning...followed by a more general likelihood of some
light snow Friday afternoon and night.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow.
Sunday...MVFR/VFR. A chance of mixed precipitation across the
North Country...otherwise rain likely.
Monday...MVFR in lake effect snow southeast of the lakes,
otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk northwest winds will diminish tonight, allowing for small
craft advisories to end on Lake Ontario. An upper level trough
will cross the region tomorrow, and behind this feature an
increase in both northwest flow...and cold air advection will
bring again renewed SCA for both Lake Erie and Ontario Thursday
night and into Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Watch from this evening through Friday
     morning for NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LOZ043-044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 8, 6:33 AM EST, 21 hours 19 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-091200-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-091200-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-091200-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie...Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-091200-
Jefferson-Lewis-
633 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A low pressure area crossing the region will bring widespread
precipitation Saturday into Sunday. Cold air trapped in area valleys
may result in precipiation falling as freezing rain, particularly
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR/WOOD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 9, 4:06 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF42 hr
Feb 9, 12:03 PM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryBUFChautauqua10 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Advisories in New York, 2017Every lake effect snow advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.