Special Weather Statement, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
347 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Quieter weather conditions will prevail overnight and through
much of Sunday. However, the weather will again become unsettled
into Tuesday. Additional showers are expected across far
northern areas later Sunday and into Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be more widespread Tuesday. High pressure
moves in on Wednesday, with cooler and drier weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...busy day, well actually a busy 24
hours since convection kept going all last night. it does look
like it's all winding down. still a threat for a few showers
and isolated thunderstorm until about sundown as the main "cold"
front moves across the area. At this point, it's just reaching
the 'Dacks and will be coming across the Champlain Valley by
6pm. All hi-res model guidance show convection waning in the
next few hours, and it appears reasonable since the rounds of
showers and thunderstorms have worked over the atmosphere and
used up what instability we had.

Otherwise overnight the only forecast item is regarding the fog.
Skies should clear out, and winds will be fairly light. It's
also rained most everywhere, so we've got the surface moisture.
However drier air will be filtering in with lowering dewpoints,
and this may preclude the development of fog, or at least
outside of the normally fog prone river valleys. Ran some tools
on the forecast data, and it indicated only a few spots in the
'Dacks and eastern Vermont should see fog. I guess we'll know
tomorrow morning how that part of the forecast works out.

Sunday daytime will be a much better one for outdoor activities,
though alas not totally rainfree (especially close to the
Canadian border). The morning starts out sunny, but by mid
afternoon, moisture and clouds will start to move in, especially
in northern areas. We are still under the influence of a broad
upper level trough, and a shortwave will be moving out of Canada
later in the day toward the region. At the same time, it appears
we'll have some moisture convergence setting up in the 850-700mb
level in an east-west orientation just north of here. The
combination of those factors will spark showers late in the day
in far northern areas.

Sunday night we'll see the continuation of those showers. At
this point, have kept PoPs in the 40% range for northern
sections.Some uncertainty in exactly where this moisture band
sets up, so not ready to go higher on PoPs. Also in question is
how much precipitation we could see. NAM and BTV4km have some
hefty rainfall totals (0.75"-1.5") by late Sunday night as
showers repeatedly move over the same areas. Something to watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...Broadly cyclonic 700-500mb flow will
prevail across the North Country on Monday and Monday night.
Weak high pressure southeast of New England will promote light
S-SW winds across the forecast area, but sfc features are
otherwise diffuse during the period. Dewpoints should climb back
up into the lower 60s, and with daytime heating will see weak
SBCAPE develop with tall-narrow CAPE profiles. Conditions may be
sufficient in cyclonic flow aloft to result in isold
showers/tstms, and have indicated 20-30 PoPs for this
possibility. Highs are expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s in
most sections. Little overall change Monday night. Moderately
fast/cyclonically curved mid-upr level flow in place with the
12Z GFS showing a mid-level vort crossing nrn NY and VT
overnight. Will maintain continued chances for showers during
this time frame. Low temperatures generally in the low-mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Saturday...Digging trough across sern Ontario
and sagging frontal zone from swrn Quebec/sern Ontario expected
to provide large-scale support for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms during Tuesday, especially the afternoon hrs. Have
indicated increasing PoPs up to 60-70% during the mid aftn thru
early evening, with chances for thunderstorms. 12Z GFS has
1000-1500 J/kg CAPE values, and could see a few stronger storms
given 30kts sfc-6km shear. PW values should peak 1.7-1.8", so
some locally heavy downpours will also be possible with the
expected convection. Highs on Tuesday will reach the upr 70s to
lower 80s.

Strong surface anticyclone expected across northern Ontario should
ridge southward into nrn NY and VT Tuesday night into Wednesday with
drying N-NW winds, providing a period of pleasant weather
conditions. Highs on Wednesday should primarily be in the mid-upr
70s. After that, it appears strengthening frontal/moisture boundary
to our south across central NY ewd into central New England will
become an increasing focus for developing showers and possible
thunderstorms. The 12Z GFS indicates that the a shortwave trough
will travel ESEWD along the frontal zone, likely enhancing
isentropic ascent across the bndry across the southern half of our
forecast area for later Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECMWF
remains a bit further south with this frontal zone, and would offer
a drier scenario for Wednesday night into Thursday, with stronger
surface ridging in place across srn Quebec and northern New England.
Will carry chance PoPs for showers/tstms closer to the 12z GFS soln
at this point. Once the shortwave trough moves east of our
longitude, appears lower PW air mass moves into the region once
again with trend toward drier weather based on current indications
from Thursday night onward.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mix of conditions across the region, thanks
to the scattered thunderstorms. Tried to best time the
SHRA/TSRA, though may have to update some forecasts based on
radar trends. In general, these showers and storms will
dissipate by 00z, and skies should be clearing out. Still
questions about fog development overnight, and available
guidance runs from several hours of LIFR at places such as SLK
and MPV, to nothing. Think some drier air coming in overnight
will preclude fog development, but confidence in any outcome is
not all that high. If any fog does develop, it would be SLK and
MPV TAF locations, though an outside chance at MSS and RUT as
well. Otherwise VFR will be the rule Sunday morning/early
afternoon. May see some surface wind gusts approach 20 knots by
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nash
NEAR TERM...Nash
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Nash

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
419 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

NYZ026>031-087-VTZ001-002-090930-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-Western Franklin-
419 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York and northern
portions of the Champlain Valley in northwest Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Saint Lawrence
Valley, moving across the Adirondacks and Champlain valley throughout
the morning, before continuing across Vermont during the midday.
Cloud to ground lightning and periods of heavy rainfall are expected
to be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ034-035-VTZ003>012-016>019-090930-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-
Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-
Windsor-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
Eastern Rutland-
419 AM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Saint Lawrence
Valley, moving across the Adirondacks and Champlain valley throughout
the morning, before continuing across Vermont during the midday. A
few stronger storms are possible, containing gusty winds and small
hail, in addition to dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy
downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
317 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIVERTON                44.20N  72.64W
07/08/2017                   WASHINGTON         VT   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROUTE 12 IN RIVERTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1702067

BANACOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

VTZ009-011-012-018-019-082045-
Western Rutland-Eastern Rutland-Windsor-Western Addison-Eastern
Addison-
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
ADDISON...RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES...

At 346 PM EDT, thunderstorms were near Benson and Brandon, moving
east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms along with heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning.

Locations impacted include...
Rutland, Woodstock, Sudbury, Killington, Rutland City, Orwell,
Rutland - Southern Vermont Airport, Benson, Pomfret, Plymouth,
Hartland, Chittenden, West Rutland, Ira, West Castleton, Sharon,
Shrewsbury, Bridgewater, Pittsfield and Pittsford.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4355 7325 4358 7330 4360 7329 4363 7331
      4362 7337 4358 7339 4385 7328 4389 7263
      4380 7232 4343 7244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 268DEG 33KT 4376 7312

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST BARNET             44.31N  72.14W
07/08/2017                   CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1702069

SISSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
411 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ESSEX               44.28N  73.35W
07/08/2017                   ESSEX              NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON LILA WAY.

0125 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WHALLONSBURG            44.26N  73.40W
07/08/2017                   ESSEX              NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON ANGIER HILL ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1702070
EVENT NUMBER BTV1702071

HANSON

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