Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Burlington, VT

917 
WWUS51 KBTV 182309
SVSBTV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
709 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

NYC019-033-182319-
/O.CAN.KBTV.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170518T2330Z/
Clinton NY-Franklin NY-
709 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northern New York...and central Vermont.

LAT...LON 4397 7389 4425 7387 4441 7340 4405 7324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 261DEG 41KT 4410 7366 

$$

NYC031-VTC001-182330-
/O.CON.KBTV.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170518T2330Z/
Essex NY-Addison VT-
709 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ESSEX AND NORTHWESTERN ADDISON COUNTIES...

At 709 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Underwood,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and powerlines. 

Locations impacted include...
Moriah, Willsboro, Westport, Elizabethtown, Keene, Keene Valley,
Panton, Port Henry, Addison, D A R State Park, Weybridge,
Ferrisburgh, Lewis, Fort Cassin Point, Owls Head Bay, North West Bay,
Mud Island, Potash Bay, Louis Clearing Bay and Fields Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4397 7389 4425 7387 4441 7340 4405 7324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 261DEG 41KT 4410 7366 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
RDeal

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
After another day of record heat, isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected through this evening...with the primary
threat being gusty winds and hail. Much cooler and drier weather
arrives by midday Friday with some patchy frost possible by Saturday
morning. A warm front will produce scattered showers on Sunday
afternoon with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... Severe thunderstorm watch number
237 in effect for entire cwa until 03z this evening. Vis sat
shows vertical cumulus development occurring across the western
dacks with radar just showing the first signs of convective
development near Tupper Lake. Expect coverage to increase this
aftn/evening as better dynamics arrive and the cap lifts.

Wind advisory continues until 03z with kmss gusting to 44 mph
last hour.

Forecast concern this evening will be areal coverage and
magnitude of convection...followed by temps. Expecting isolated
strong to locally severe storms to fire late this aftn along
pre-frontal trof and associated weak embedded 5h vort in the
flow aloft. The pre- storm environment this aftn/evening shows
CAPE values between 1500 to 2000 j/kg with a ribbon of enhanced
0 to 3 km/0 to 6 km shear values between 40 and 50 knots. This
instability/shear supports isolated/scattered cluster of storms
with some individual bowing line segments. The 1st round looks
to impact mainly the eastern Dacks...southern/central CPV...and
parts of central/southern and eastern VT between 20-00z this
evening. Expecting a few strong to severe storms in this time
period. Meanwhile...another broken line of showers/storms will
be approaching the SLV by 00z this evening. Still some
uncertainty with regards to amount of instability with cool lake
water impacting environment...along with impacts of upstream
convection stabilizing atmosphere. If environment can recover
enough btwn 00z-03z...expecting a broken line of strong storms
with some enhanced wind threat associated with very strong 925mb
to 850mb winds of 45 to 55 knots. These storms will weaken as
they enter the CPV around midnight tonight.

A very mild start to the evening expected with temps mainly in the
70s to near 80f in areas away from convection...but as strong cold
front swings across our region after midnight...expect temps to
quickly fall. By morning...expecting temps to range from the upper
40s slv/western dacks to lower 60s near VSF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...sharp cold front is draped across
southern New England at 18z Friday with moderate low level caa
continuing across our cwa. Progged 850mb temps range between
10-12c around 12z...but fall between 2-4c by 18z
Friday...supporting nearly steady temps or falling during the
morning hours. Thinking clouds break up during the afternoon
hours and temps warm back into the mid 50s to lower 60s most
locations...but with breezy northwest will make for a chilly mid
May day. Some lingering mainly terrain drive rain showers are
possible from 12z to 16z...but rapid drying aloft...will quickly
dissipate showers by Friday afternoon.

Friday Night thru Saturday Night...1030mb high pres builds into the
region during this time period with dry conditions and cool temps.
Based on clear skies and winds decoupling in deeper protected
valleys...expect some patchy frost to develop. Best chances for
frost will be dacks and valleys of central/northern VT...including
the NEK. Will mention lows ranging from the mid/upper 20s NEK/SLK to
near 40F CPV/SLV. A nice day is expected on Saturday with plenty of
sunshine and slightly below normal temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 317 PM EDT Thursday...Upper level ridge and exiting
surface high pressure off the Atlantic seaboard will keep dry
conditions across the North Country to end the weekend with
increasing clouds ahead of our next system encroaching from the
west during the afternoon. Deep low pressure over southern
Ontario tracks eastward into central Quebec Sunday night through
Monday dragging a cold front through northern New York and
Vermont with showers developing late Sunday evening across
western areas and becoming widespread after midnight through
Monday as a weak wave of low pressure forms over the mid-
Atlantic states and rides northeast to the Gulf of Maine by
Monday night. In contrast to the previous forecast, the 12z
model suite indicates very little instability both at the
surface and aloft to support thunder so I've removed all
mention. Is a rumble or tow of thunder possible, sure. Just not
enough to justify it in the forecast.

Brief break in precipitation occurs Tuesday as we'll be in
between systems, with the next chance for showers and potential
thunderstorms coming Wednesday/Wednesday night as deepening low
pressure over Great Lakes Tuesday night tracks northeast through
the St. Lawrence Valley.

Temps through the period will be very seasonal with highs in
the mid 60s to low 70s, and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected
through 12Z Friday with 2 rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening briefly reducing
vsby/cigs to MVFR/IFR. After 12Z, there will be a gradual trend
towards MVFR as cigs lower behind a cold front passage. For
winds, gusty to locally strong south-southwest with gusts in the
20-35kt range persist through about midnight before shifting to
the west-northwest at 8-15kts.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: MVFR. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Max Temp Records for 5/18/17

KBTV...89 set in 1989
KMPV...90 set in 1962
K1V4...92 set in 1906
KMSS...90 set in 1962

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ026-027-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Lahiff
CLIMATE...WFO BTV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017

NYZ026-027-087-190800-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Southwestern St. Lawrence-
354 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-190800-
Eastern Clinton-Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-
Western Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
354 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. A few of these
storms may become strong to severe with hail and strong winds as the
primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
536 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

VTZ007-008-010-182200-
Caledonia-Washington-Orange-
536 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ORANGE...
SOUTHWESTERN CALEDONIA AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 535 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Northfield
Village, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barre, Montpelier, Calais, Plainfield, Websterville, East Montpelier,
Marshfield Village, Waitsfield, Berlin, Groton, Marshfield, Barre
Town, Northfield Village, Northfield, Moretown, Barre City, Groton
Village, Ricker State Park, E F Knapp State Airport and Cabot
Village.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4406 7282 4420 7289 4443 7233 4421 7218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 242DEG 42KT 4420 7268

RDeal

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

NYZ034-035-VTZ005-009-018-182230-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Chittenden-Western
Addison-Eastern Addison-
549 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ESSEX...NORTHWESTERN
ADDISON AND SOUTHWESTERN CHITTENDEN COUNTIES...

At 548 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Keene Valley,
moving east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vergennes, Middlebury, Essex, Moriah, Willsboro, Westport,
Elizabethtown, Keene, Weybridge, New Haven, Port Henry, Addison,
Mount Marcy, Ferrisburg, Waltham, Keene Valley, Panton, Mt. Philo
State Park, Kingsland Bay State Park and D A R State Park.

Boaters on Lake Champlain should seek safe harbor now! Strong winds
will cause higher waves and sudden wind shifts may overturn boats.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northern New York...and central and northwestern Vermont.

LAT...LON 4444 7335 4402 7300 4398 7403 4415 7410
      4418 7410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 253DEG 41KT 4413 7382

RDeal

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
552 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOUTH BURLINGTON        44.47N  73.17W
05/18/2017                   CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SMALL TREES DOWN AND MINOR PROPERTY
            DAAMAGE.

0525 PM     HAIL             SOUTH BURLINGTON        44.47N  73.17W
05/18/2017  M0.50 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SMALL TREES DOWN AND MINOR PROPERTY
            DAAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1701908
EVENT NUMBER BTV1701909

VERASAMY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
555 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0541 PM     HAIL             UNDERHILL               44.53N  72.95W
05/18/2017  M0.25 INCH       CHITTENDEN         VT   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATE WINDS BETWEEN 32 AND 38 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1701910

TABER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
557 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WILLISTON           44.44N  73.09W
05/18/2017                   CHITTENDEN         VT   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING HIGHWAY 2A.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1701911

VERASAMY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
617 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST BURKE              44.59N  71.94W
05/18/2017                   CALEDONIA          VT   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1701912

TABER