Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
433 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level disturbance continues to push east
along the international border, scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours. The upper
level disturbance will move east on Tuesday but still a few
additional showers or thunderstorms are possible especially over
eastern Vermont. A ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and
drier conditions to the area on Wednesday before another
frontal system moves in on Thursday and Friday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather are likely
by Saturday under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 PM EDT Monday...Severe thunderstorm watch only
remains for Rutland and Windsor counties in Vermont until 8 pm.

Upper level trough very slowly pushing eastward along the
international border currently. Scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours. Convective
activity will be ending with loss of daytime heating following
sunset. After midnight expect mainly dry conditions with mild
temperatures under partly cloudy skies. Areas of dense of fog
are expected after 06z, especially at locations where heavy rain
fell with thunderstorms today and at the typically fog prone
spots. Upper level trough continues to push eastward overnight
and into Tuesday morning. Some showers are possible east of the
Greens Tuesday morning, but as trough pushes east will lose the
forcing and the rest of the day should be drier. Tuesday will be
the start of a short lived warm up with surface and upper level
ridging beginning. 850 temps will reach the upper teens and
temperatures push into the 80s across our forecast area. Tuesday
night will be dry and slightly warmer than seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Ridge of high pressure will be over
the North Country most of Wednesday, keeping things dry into the
late afternoon/early evening hours. Clouds will be increasing
from the northwest ahead of approaching frontal boundary.
There's a slight chance that precipitation may reach northern St
Lawrence county through the Champlain Valley around the
international border during the afternoon. 925mb temperatures
will reach 20C-22C with plentiful sunshine during most of the
day allowing max temperatures to reach the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 430 PM EDT Monday...Overall active pattern continues
throughout the long term. Frontal boundary looks to weaken as it
moves into the North Country Wednesday night. Expect showers
and possible thunderstorms to dissipate by Thursday morning.
This brief break will see more showers and thunderstorms
developing Thursday afternoon into evening as a mid-level
shortwave moves across the region. Model guidance differs on the
timing and strength of this shortwave and the surface trough
reflected at the surface. Surface trough and showers could
linger into Friday before high pressure builds in Friday night
into early Saturday. Yet another shortwave looks to affect the
northeast for the latter half of Saturday into Sunday. Model
guidance then differ on a more significant vort and associated
trough tracking across the Great Lakes and the exact timing and
track it takes Sunday. Lots of uncertainty, however with the
southward progression of vorticity on GFS and ECMWF, leaning
toward a wetter solution Sunday into Sunday night. There is a
large surface ridge building into the region from
Canada...extending from James Bay for the beginning of the work
week that could provide a period of drier weather.

Overall temperatures throughout the period will be withing 5
degrees of normal for this time of year.

&&

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Locally MVFR/IFR visibilities in heavier
SHRA/TSRA+ this afternoon, as upper level trof moves eastward.
Could be some hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain with any TSRA.
Storms are pretty much past MSS and SLK but have TS mentioned at
all other TAF sites over the next couple hours. Winds light and
variable trending southerly 10 kts or less except higher near
TSRA. Some areas of IFR Fog developing toward 04-07Z after all
the rain with partial clearing and light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Neiles

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-180745-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
344 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
Vermont and northern New York today. A few stronger storms are
expected, containing locally frequent lightning, strong gusty winds,
hail, and brief heavy rainfall causing isolated flash flooding.
Activity should decrease in areal coverage and intensity during this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE WAITSFIELD        44.18N  72.80W
07/17/2017                   WASHINGTON         VT   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MINOR CULVERT DAMAGE... TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            PICTURES/RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1702076

TABER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

NYZ029-172100-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-
354 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY...

At 353 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles southwest
of Star Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oswegatchie, Cranberry Lake, Star Lake, Degrasse, Fine, Lower
Oswegatchie, Aldrich, Newton Falls, Shurtleff, Wanakena and South
Russell.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4437 7515 4441 7513 4426 7466 4407 7488
      4405 7507 4413 7524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 207DEG 18KT 4400 7515

Lahiff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
504 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

VTZ012-019-172200-
Eastern Rutland-Windsor-
504 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RUTLAND AND
SOUTHWESTERN WINDSOR COUNTIES...

At 504 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ludlow, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Chester, Woodstock, Mount Holly, Ludlow, Cavendish, Andover, Weston,
Ludlow Village, Perkinsville Village, Mt. Holly, Ascutney, Plymouth,
Reading, Baltimore, Weathersfield, West Windsor, Mount Tabor,
Bridgewater, Windsor and Shrewsbury.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4325 7282 4330 7282 4330 7288 4334 7293
      4363 7269 4341 7240 4340 7240 4339 7241
      4323 7274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 233DEG 7KT 4339 7273

Lahiff

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