River Flood Warning 18, NWS Burlington, VT

324 
WGUS81 KBTV 021540
FLSBTV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1140 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Safety message...

If you live or travel near streams and rivers seek higher ground 
immediately at first signs of rising water. Obey all road closure 
signs, they are there for your safety. Do not attempt to drive 
through flooded areas, most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Turn 
around, don't drown!

Stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio, or by 
visiting our web site at: weather.gov.

&&

NYC089-031640-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171105T0600Z/
/HEUN6.1.ER.171102T0730Z.171102T1800Z.171105T0000Z.NO/
1140 AM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton.
* At 11:15 AM Thursday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.7 feet by 
  Thursday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet...Route 15 and River Road between Rensselaer 
  Falls and Heuvelton will flood. Downstream in Ogdensburg, the Maple
  City recreational path will be inundated. Shoreline flooding is 
  possible on Black Lake.

&&
    
LAT...LON 4457 7533 4460 7551 4469 7551 4470 7549
      4464 7542 4459 7531

$$

Deal

072 
WGUS81 KBTV 030232
FLSBTV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1032 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Safety message...

If you live or travel near streams and rivers seek higher ground 
immediately at first signs of rising water. Obey all road closure 
signs, they are there for your safety. Do not attempt to drive 
through flooded areas, most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Turn 
around, don't drown!

Stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio, or by 
visiting our web site at: weather.gov.

&&

NYC089-040332-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171105T0930Z/
/HEUN6.1.ER.171102T0730Z.171103T1800Z.171105T0330Z.NO/
1032 PM EDT Thu Nov 2 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton.
* At 10:15 PM Thursday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.9 feet by early
  Friday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  before midnight.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet...Route 15 and River Road between Rensselaer 
  Falls and Heuvelton will flood. Downstream in Ogdensburg, the Maple
  City recreational path will be inundated. Shoreline flooding is 
  possible on Black Lake.

&&
    
LAT...LON 4457 7533 4460 7551 4469 7551 4470 7549
      4464 7542 4459 7531


$$

JMG

168 
WGUS81 KBTV 031536
FLSBTV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1136 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Safety message...

If you live or travel near streams and rivers seek higher ground 
immediately at first signs of rising water. Obey all road closure 
signs, they are there for your safety. Do not attempt to drive 
through flooded areas, most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Turn 
around, don't drown!

Stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio, or by 
visiting our web site at: weather.gov.

&&

NYC089-041636-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171105T0600Z/
/HEUN6.1.ER.171102T0730Z.171103T1800Z.171105T0000Z.NO/
1136 AM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton.
* At 11:15 AM Friday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.0 feet by 
  Friday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet...Route 15 and River Road between Rensselaer 
  Falls and Heuvelton will flood. Downstream in Ogdensburg, the Maple
  City recreational path will be inundated. Shoreline flooding is 
  possible on Black Lake.

&&
    
LAT...LON 4457 7533 4460 7551 4469 7551 4470 7549
      4464 7542 4459 7531


$$

Deal

145 
WGUS81 KBTV 040211
FLSBTV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1011 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Safety message...

If you live or travel near streams and rivers seek higher ground 
immediately at first signs of rising water. Obey all road closure 
signs, they are there for your safety. Do not attempt to drive 
through flooded areas, most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Turn 
around, don't drown!

Stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio, or by 
visiting our web site at: weather.gov.

&&

NYC089-050000-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171105T0000Z/
/HEUN6.1.ER.171102T0730Z.171103T1815Z.171104T1800Z.NO/
1011 PM EDT Fri Nov 3 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton.
* At  9:15 PM Friday the stage was 7.85 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river has crested and will fall to below
  flood stage by early Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet...Route 15 and River Road between Rensselaer 
  Falls and Heuvelton will flood. Lowland flooding of fields and
  cropland along the river will occur. Downstream in Ogdensburg, the
  Maple City recreational path will be inundated. Shoreline flooding
  is also possible on Black Lake.

&&
    
LAT...LON 4457 7533 4460 7551 4469 7551 4470 7549
      4464 7542 4459 7531             

$$

JMG

725 
WGUS81 KBTV 041603
FLSBTV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1203 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Safety message...

If you live or travel near streams and rivers seek higher ground 
immediately at first signs of rising water. Obey all road closure 
signs, they are there for your safety. Do not attempt to drive 
through flooded areas, most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Turn 
around, don't drown!

Stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio, or by 
visiting our web site at: weather.gov.

&&

NYC089-050300-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171105T0300Z/
/HEUN6.1.ER.171102T0730Z.171103T1815Z.171104T2100Z.NO/
1203 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton.
* At 11:15 AM Saturday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet...Route 15 and River Road between Rensselaer 
  Falls and Heuvelton will flood.  Lowland flooding of fields and 
  cropland along the river will occur. Downstream in Ogdensburg, the 
  Maple City recreational path will be inundated. Shoreline flooding 
  is also possible on Black Lake.

&&
    
LAT...LON 4457 7533 4460 7551 4469 7551 4470 7549
      4464 7542 4459 7531             

$$

325 
WGUS81 KBTV 042332
FLSBTV
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
732 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Safety message...

If you live or travel near streams and rivers seek higher ground 
immediately at first signs of rising water. Obey all road closure 
signs, they are there for your safety. Do not attempt to drive 
through flooded areas, most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Turn 
around, don't drown!

Stay tuned to developments by listening to noaa weather radio, or by 
visiting our web site at: weather.gov.

&&

NYC089-050002-
/O.CAN.KBTV.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171105T0300Z/
/HEUN6.1.ER.171102T0730Z.171103T1815Z.171104T2200Z.NO/
732 PM EDT Sat Nov 4 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Oswegatchie River At Heuvelton.
* At  7:15 PM Saturday the stage was 7.47 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 7.5 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 6:15 PM Saturday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 7.1 feet by Sunday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 7.5 feet...Route 15 and River Road between Rensselaer 
  Falls and Heuvelton will flood.  Lowland flooding of fields and 
  cropland along the river will occur. Downstream in Ogdensburg, the 
  Maple City recreational path will be inundated. Shoreline flooding 
  is also possible on Black Lake.

&&
    
LAT...LON 4457 7533 4460 7551 4469 7551 4470 7549
      4464 7542 4459 7531             

$$

JMG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
753 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passing northwest of the region will drag a warm front
across the North Country tonight into Thursday morning, followed by
a trailing cold front late Thursday night and Friday. Periods of
rain or showers are expected with both frontal passages, with a
dusting to perhaps 2 inches of snow on the higher elevations
tonight, mainly in the Adirondacks. High pressure will bring dry
weather to the region on Saturday, before wet weather returns for
Saturday night through Monday night as another stronger low passes
to our northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 746 PM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains in good shape
as we progress toward the 8 o'clock hour. Did massage pops with
latest HRRR model output which is capturing the current
evolution of precipitation quite well. This would suggest on and
off bouts of light rain into the overnight hours before larger
surge of steadier rainfall associated with additional shortwave
energy riding along the advancing warm front arrives after 400
am into the mid-late morning hours on Thursday. These are
essentially fine-scale tweaks with the overall forecast thought
process remaining largely unchanged. Have a great evening.

Prior discussion...
A warm front will be approaching from the southwest overnight
and passing north of the region Thursday. It will bring periods
of rain or showers to the north country tonight through Thursday
morning. A mix of rain and snow noted earlier in PA, but
thinking that by tonight any snow will be confined above 3000 ft
this eve as precipitation moves into the region. Whiteface and
Stratton were 30 degrees while Mt. Mansfield 34 as of 3 p.m. A
couple of inches of wet snow is possible on the summits through
midnight as freezing levels rise well above the summits and it
changes to all rain.

On Thursday as the warm front lifts north of the Canadian border,
showers will gradually diminish from south to north through the day
with temperatures rising into the mid 50s to around 60 in the
afternoon. Played the temps in the middle of the guidance with some
of the raw models suggesting 50s while some of the BC and MOS
suggesting as high as mid 60s in the Champlain Valley, but thinking
that it will end up a cloudy day on average. Winds will
markedly increase during the day as well, with gusts in the 20
to 30 mph range from the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 PM EDT Wednesday...Most of Thursday night we'll be in
the warm sector so it will be a breezy and mild night with
temperatures hovering in the mid 50s to around 60 all night. A
cold front will arrive in northern NY after midnight making its
way southeastward toward BTV after sunup on Friday. The front
will be accompanied by showers with the highest probabilities in
northern NY/VT 09-15z then decaying probabilities south as the
front move through the region. Still some mild temperatures
around Friday, mainly across VT where southern VT may reach the
upper 60s while northern NY only reaches the upper 50s. Skies
will be clearing Friday night with low temps in the upper 20s to
mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 405 PM EDT Wednesday...12z suite of guidance is in okay
agreement through Monday, but start to diverge Tuesday and that
spread is even larger by Wednesday. Translating, that means use
the forecast with caution after Monday, as it is bound to
change. Synoptically, the pattern across the eastern half of the
country is that of a fast and progressive nearly zonal pattern.
These types of patterns typically mean large timing errors in
models the further out in time you look. That is certainly the
case today from the guidance I have looked at. I did start with
the general model blend, but made a few adjustments here and
there. Notes on each of the days are below:

Saturday: still looking dry as a weak ridge of high pressure moves
overhead. 850mb temperatures will range either side of 0C, which is
pretty close to where we should be. That suggests high temperatures
will also be pretty close to where we should be (mid 40s to around
50F). Clouds will increase late in the day, as the next system moves
closer. Should have precipitation breaking out overnight as well.
It's possible there could be a little bit of snow at high elevations
(above 2000ft) at the start, but warm air advection will mean it
changes to rain everywhere.

Sunday:  Warm air advection all day as southerly winds strengthen.
Looks like periods of rain as well. Models indicate a fairly good
low/mid level southwesterly  jet develops late in the day and
overnight - pushing 50kts at 850mph. Precipitation will keep
boundary layer mixing minimized, but still could get a little breezy
in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Future forecasts will need
to fine tune those details.  Temperatures will rise into the upper
50s by late day, and then stay there, or even continue to rise
slightly Sunday night.

Monday: 12z GFS and ECMWF are both consistent in showing a cold
front push through the area during the day. Should be a
noticeable temperature drop after the front as 850mb
temperatures go from about +10C at 12z Monday to +1 to -2C by
00z Tuesday. Expect it to be a little breezy with and just after
the front, probably more so than the guidance blend indicates
right now. Precipitation chances decrease significantly Monday
night as high pressure builds in.

Tuesday: 12z guidance has trended much drier both days, but model
uncertainty is such that I still kept some mention of roughly 15-25%
PoPs. GFS stalls the front just to our south, and by late Tuesday is
already showing some moisture return spreading clouds north.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF also shows some moisture spreading across
during the day thanks to a weak upper level shortwave interacting
with some lake effect streamers. Temperatures should be around
normal in either case.

Wednesday: Guidance ranges from the GFS cranking up a low to our
southwest as an upper trough energizes the frontal boundary to our
south and spreading precipitation into the region on strengthening
southeast flow. Meanwhile the ECMWF is gives us a dry and seasonably
cool fall day as it keeps the frontal boundary further south, and
has a much suppressed upper trough, so cyclogenesis is much
weaker. At this point, I'm tending to lean toward the ECMWF, so
I did lower the PoPs from the basic model blend, but did not go
completely dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions overall currently with
KMSS/KSLK MVFR as a warm front lifts into the region from
southwest to northeast along with some light rain showers.
Eventually all locations will drop to MVFR and could be some
IFR especially KMSS/KSLK early Thu as the warm front moves
through. The front moves north of the region by the 18Z Thu and
any showers by then will be scattered and mainly to the north.
South winds near 10 knots through tonight but picking up to 10
to 20 kts Thursday morning especially at BTV. KMSS winds will be
variable to east through about 14-18z then becoming SW as the
warm front moves by.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA...Chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 PM...Looking at south winds 10 to 20 knots tonight as
pressure gradient increases and air temps cooler than the 56
degree water making for a well mixed boundary layer over the
lake. By Thursday morning south winds could be blowing 15 to 25
knots gusting up to 30 knots with waves up to 6 feet on the
broad lake. Rain showers will also arrive tonight lasting into
Thu morning with visibilities lowering to 5 miles at times.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...JMG/Sisson
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Sisson/Verasamy
MARINE...Sisson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-020745-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-Windsor-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-
335 AM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.