Special Weather Statement, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
117 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest /06Z/ aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...For the Lower Valley (mainly Brownsville and
Harlingen/Valley) the forecast through 1 AM Tuesday is fairly
non-descript, as a mix of MVFR (early and late) and VFR lower
clouds will combine with plenty of cirrus/anvil debris courtesy of
both short wave energy scooting within otherwise flat 500 mb flow.

That short wave/disturbance, however, will be dipping into Deep
South Texas late this afternoon and overnight; any old boundaries
from leftover early Monday morning convection across the Rio
Grande Plains may be enough to trigger some new activity by mid
to late afternoon across the mid Valley. More interesting action
may develop by early evening across the eastern slopes of the
Sierra Madre from near the Big Bend to southwest of Starr/Zapata,
and the arrival of the axis of the short wave trough overnight
(with light easterly surface flow) has all the earmarks of an
MCS/MCV that could march into the mid Valley after sunset and
before midnight.

For both of these reasons, added a PROB30 for modest visibility
reductions (MVFR) in TSRA for McAllen/Miller, one period during
the late afternoon and another just before midnight. As was the
case six days ago, figuring out exactly how far east and south the
bigger rains...and potential stronger winds and even hail...is a
difficult proposition. As of this writing the favored areas remain
west of the populated RGV including McAllen, but future forecasts
should be able to pin down the potential movement/survival of any
MCS/MCV that develops after dark.
52/BSG

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

52/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
445 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

TXZ248>257-172145-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
445 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AT THE LOCAL BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL AS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-172145-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
445 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CASTILLO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
236 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017

TXZ248-170815-
Zapata TX-
236 AM CDT MON APR 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL 315
AM CDT...

At 236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of El Cenizo, or 21 miles south of Laredo, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zapata County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2732 9937 2727 9933 2727 9896 2692 9918
      2708 9944 2709 9943 2710 9944 2711 9944
      2713 9943 2715 9944 2716 9943 2721 9943
      2722 9944 2725 9944 2727 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 297DEG 34KT 2722 9949

TOMASELLI

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