Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Brownsville, TX

937 
WHUS74 KBRO 242213 AAA
MWWBRO

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
413 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017

...Adverse marine conditions developing tonight...

.High pressure will build into the region behind the passage of a
cold front bringing stronger north winds and building seas tonight.
Adverse marine conditions will prevail over the gulf waters during
the overnight before improving for Christmas Day.

GMZ150-155-170-175-251000-
/O.CON.KBRO.SC.Y.0067.171225T0300Z-171225T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
413 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast around 20 knots with higher gusts. 

* SEAS...4 to 6 feet nearshore and 5 to 7 feet offshore. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

716 
WHUS74 KBRO 251001
MWWBRO

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
401 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017

...Adverse marine conditions continue...

.High pressure will build into the region bringing stronger north
winds and building seas early this morning. Marine conditions 
will gradually improve through Christmas Day.

GMZ150-155-170-175-251200-
/O.CON.KBRO.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-171225T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
401 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...Northeast around 20 knots with higher gusts.

* SEAS...4 to 6 feet nearshore and 5 to 7 feet offshore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

828 
WHUS74 KBRO 251209
MWWBRO

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
609 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017

...Marine conditions steadily improving...

.Latest marine observations indicate winds and seas have lowered
across the lower Texas coastal Waters as high pressure builds 
over South Texas. The Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters has
expired.


GMZ150-155-170-175-251315-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SC.Y.0067.000000T0000Z-171225T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
609 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Small craft should exercise caution for today for seas 4 to 6 
feet occasionally 8 feet. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1140 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Light and variable winds and VFR conditions prevail
south of a cold front moving into South Central Texas this
afternoon. The front arrives in the RGV after sunset with lower
clouds increasing a few hours after frontal passage. Flight
conditions could go down faster then model guidance and the
current TAF package suggest which is around 09Z. Flight conditions
should lower to MVFR and may approach IFR near the coast around
mid-morning. MVFR cigs continue through Christmas day with some
cigs approaching IFR, mainly near KBRO the coastal areas with a
coastal trough indicated to develop with light rain and drizzle
forming. Visibilities may lower as a result but this is more
probable after this taf package or later Monday and Monday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Light and variable winds are anticipated today as
surface high pressure spreads across the region. A cold front is
expected to move through deep south Texas later this evening and
overnight resulting in a slight uptick in northerly winds and some
low clouds. A persistent westerly flow aloft will support high
level cloudiness through the period. However, VFR conditions will
prevail for the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday): Surface high pressure across
deep south Texas this morning will spread east today. Light winds
with above normal temperatures are expected across the area for
today. High temperatures today will be the 70s except for the
upper 60s along the beaches. Another cold front is expected to
move through deep south Texas by late this evening. No rainfall is
anticipated with the frontal passage tonight due to the lack of
moisture. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 40s
across the ranchlands to the mid 50s at the beaches. High
temperatures Christmas Day will be in the 60s, which is slightly
below normal, under mostly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday): Broad 500 mb troffing
will prevail over much of the lower 48 states throughout this
upcoming week. A series of short waves moving around the base of
this trough axis will manage to push a mild cold front through the
region around midweek. The old frontal boundary will slowly slip
south of the RGV later in the work week with additional weak short
waves moving over the RGV resulting in some better divergence
aloft. Some decent moisture pools near the RGV during the latter
half of the work week which may interact with the better lift over
the region to increase pops a bit from Wed on into next weekend.
The GFS is a bit higher with the pops versus the ECMWF which
maintains more slgt chc pops. The ECMWF is also a little stronger
with the CAA after the fropa on Wed with the temperatures starting
to rebound next weekend with increasing WAA.

The last several runs of both the ECMWF and GFS models have
generally trended warmer versus earlier runs. The ECMWF has
maintained a general dry bias versus the GFS which is holding onto
higher pops from Thurs through Sat. Will lean closer to the drier
pops indicated by the ECMWF and will go close to a blend of the
two model sets for temps through Day 7.

Overall confidence in the longer range forecast wording is only
average due to the model to model/run to run differences in the
strength of the CAA later this week.

MARINE (Now through Monday): Very favorable marine conditions will
prevail along the lower Texas coast for today as high pressure
spreads over the western Gulf of Mexico. Very light winds and low
seas are anticipated across the coastal waters for today. Another
surge of north to northeast winds will move into the lower Texas
coastal waters by late this evening and gradually increase
overnight. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed by late this
evening due to the stronger winds and building seas on the Gulf
waters. Will hold off on issuing the Small Craft Advisory and allow
the day shift the opportunity to decide on the timing of the
advisory. Marine conditions begin to improve by late Christmas Day
as high pressure moves east.

Monday Night through Thursday Night: Light to moderate east to
southeast surface flow will prevail along the lower TX coastline
from Mon Night through early Wed with light to moderate northeast
flow prevailing from Wed Night through Thurs Night in the wake of
the cold front. The winds and seas in the longer range CWF period
appear to remain below SCA levels at this time.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
428 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017

TXZ248>257-251030-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Kenedy-Starr-Hidalgo-Inland Willacy-
Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
428 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be an elevated risk for rip currents along area
beaches Christmas Day and then again Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-251030-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
428 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small Craft Advisories will be possible on the lower Texas Gulf
waters tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Small Craft Advisories will be possible on the lower Texas Gulf
waters Christmas Day morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.