Special Weather Statement, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
133 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm weather arrives today. Scattered showers
possible today, and again on Friday. High pressure follows for
Saturday, exiting Sunday. Widespread rainfall is then expected
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM Update...

Cold front remains draped across Southern New England, with WSW
flow across eastern MA, RI, and much of CT. Dew points in this
area 56-59. Satellite-based LI values are near zero across the
Narragansett Basin of RI and over southeast MA. Satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies late morning except for
lingering fog and stratus along the Islands and parts of Cape
Cod.

Morning radiosonde plots show a potential for max sfc temps mid
to upper 70s with mixing to 800 mb. anything higher would bring
max values to around 80. Observed sfc temperatures at 10 am were
about 2F warmer than our hourly forecast, so we have bumped
forecast values for this and the corresponding max temps up as
well. We also bumped surface winds up a few mph based on
observations as well as observed winds at 850 mb.

Continue to favor scattered to widely scattered convection this
afternoon with the focus on eastern MA and RI near and ahead of
the cold front. Morning soundings look a little dry at low
levels, but surface dew points in the upper 50s may supply
limited moisture along and ahead of the front. HRRR shows CAPE
reaching 1500 J briefly. Maintaining the hail and wind wording
as before.

Earlier discussion...

Cold pool aloft remains centered over Ontario and Quebec, The
associated mid level low will send waves of energy across
southern New England later today. This cold pool will help to
maintain modest mid level lapse rates over our region. A cold
front passing trough our region will also provide some surface
convergence, too.

While there are more than a few factors that suggest possible
thunderstorms today, there is a critical ingredient which may
be lacking: moisture. K index values are not projected to be
very high, an indication the atmosphere may be too dry aloft.
Looking at the upstream 00Z sounding over Buffalo, there is
further evidence of that drier air.

All in all, cannot completely rule out the possibility of an
isolated thunderstorm or two later today. However, bulk shear
magnitude should remain less than 40 kt across much of the
region. So, not expecting any thunderstorms today to be as
strong as those from Wednesday evening.

Some sunshine this morning and a slightly increased southwest
flow should help boost temperatures above normal for this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
Tonight...

Cold front finally moves offshore tonight, allowing drier air to
more fully overspread southern New England. Expecting dry
weather with clearing skies. Temperatures near normal.

Friday...

Yet another wave moves across our region. Still not a lot
humidity to work with, so will just mention the possibility of
showers. Expecting a more typical diurnal shower kind of day as
the cold pool aloft shifts farther east. Near normal high
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights...

 * High pres Sat into early Sun.
 * Cool rain Monday and Tuesday
 * Uncertain forecast mid-late next week.

Overview and model preferences...
True summer-like warmth remains just out of reach through much
of the long term. This is due to developing block through the
central US/Canada which keeps the region under northern stream
dominated flow. Given we are on the E periphery of the blocking,
generally trof/cutoff system sets up across New England,
yielding unsettled wx and generally cooler than normal
conditions into the middle of next week. In fact, will likely
see highs remain below normal through much of the long term
period.

Details...

Fri night and Sat...Upper lvl shortwave and attendant weak cold
front will shift E of the region Fri night. This will allow
colder/drier air to filter into the region and a deeper
subsidence inversion associated with 1020hpa high pres. Expect
clearing skies overnight with only some diurnal CU on Sat as
overall column moisture remains quite dry (PWATs near 0.50
inches). H85 temps settle around +3C to +4C. Weak flow early Sat
morning should allow temps to drop into the upper 40s and low
50s, while full mixing suggests mid to upper 60s during the day
Sat. Maybe a few spots reach 70. Generally a couple of degrees
below normal highs.

Sun...High pres crests then shifts E of New England Sun. This
allows more mid lvl warming with H85 temps reaching +8C to +10C
by late afternoon. Mixing will be limited however as the column
moisture loads (increasing clouds) mid day into the evening.
Onshore component to the flow as winds veer from the W to the SE
will also limit late day warming. Highs mainly in the upper 60s
to around 70 are expected, which is still a bit below seasonal
normals. Warm front with overrunning and increasing moisture
later in the day (PWATs reach about 1.00 inches). This suggest
some rain begins by late day Sun, although looking at soundings,
it may take until evening before any steady rainfall begins,
with the heaviest not arriving until the overnight hours. Would
not be surprised to see guidance continue to slow this onset
with successive runs given current QPF outpaces the drier air.

Mon and Tue...Deepening cutoff settles from Quebec into the
Great Lakes forcing the equatorward entrance region of the
cyclonic jet to the E to settle across New England. Meanwhile
sfc low pres associated with the cutoff slows as the upper lvl
cutoff gets approaches, settling over NY state. Sfc warm front
also stalls S of New England given limited low-mid lvl forcing
out of the S. Onshore flow from the E-SE develops along with
increasing moisture as PWATs approach 1.50 inches. The warm
frontal placement and upper lvl jet- streak pattern suggest
plenty of lift to work with this moisture. So, expect widespread
rainfall Sun night into Mon. Cool, as winds will be off the Gulf
of Maine where SSTs remain in the 50s. Therefore highs will
struggle to break out of the 50s as well.

A brief lull is possible as the initial overrunning weakens with
secondary low pres development as the upper lvl cutoff catches
up, this looks most likely late Mon and early Mon night. There
is some uncertainty with the path of this second low, but in any
of the potential cases a second round of warm advection aloft
and increased isentropic flow will once again increase POPs. A
second round of precip develops. Ensemble means suggest a
passage to the S, allowing the E component to the flow to
remain, keeping highs mainly in the 50s especially near shore.
Final rainfall totals (including both rounds) look to be mainly
0.50-1.50 inches, but these may change based on the second
round.

Late next week...Very uncertain given ensembles are all over
the place with the breakdown of the upstream ridge and, as a
result, the cutoff across New England. However, noting at least
some evidence for drier air moving into the region yielding more
in the way of drier conditions and showers rather than a steady
cool rainfall. In fact, will also highlight some warming with
highs potentially coming back closer to seasonal normals with
enough sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...

This afternoon...Moderate confidence.

VFR except lingering IFR/LIFR in fog/low clouds along the South
coast and Islands. The fog and low clouds should shift offshore
during the afternoon, although lingering questions for how long
ACK will take to clear off.

Scattered showers/tstms moving east from Central MA and Northern
CT. These will affect parts of RI and Eastern MA from mid
afternoon through evening. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys in most that
occur...an isolated IFR cigs/vsby possible in any heavy showers.
Hail will also be possible in any tstms.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Any remaining showers/storms end. Patchy fog, mostly over the
South Coast and Islands. Otherwise VFR with W winds.

Friday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR conditions with scattered showers possible in the
afternoon and evening.

Friday night...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Northwest winds at or below 10 knots.

KBOS TAF...Generally high confidence in TAF. Scattered
thunderstorms moving in from Central MA 19Z to 21Z.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF. Scattered showers and
possible thunder through 21Z.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...Moderate confidence.

Sat into early Sun...High confidence. Mainly VFR. W winds at or
below 10 kt Sat, shifting to the SE by Sun.

Late Sun into Mon...Moderate confidence.
Gradual reduction in conditions late Sun and Sun evening from
VFR to widespread IFR by overnight Sun night. The IFR conditions
linger into Mon. Rain/fog expected. Winds shift from SE to E-SE
by Mon with a few gusts to 20-25 kt mainly near shore Mon. Some
LLWS possible Mon as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
thresholds through Friday. W/SW gusts up to 20 kt developing
across nearshore waters today. The greatest concern for
mariners will be lingering areas of dense fog and poor
visibilities along and south of the Islands and over south
coastal waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...Moderate confidence.

Fri night through Sun...High confidence.
Mainly quiet boating weather. Winds mainly W through Sat at or
below 10 kt. Winds then shift to the S-SE Sun with a few gusts
up to 20 kt, but still below small craft thresholds. Seas remain
generally below 3 ft through the weekend.

Mon...Moderate confidence.
E-SE winds 25-30 kt with a few gusts to low end Gales possible.
Seas build through the day, reaching 6-7 ft by Mon evening.
Small Craft Advisories likely needed, with a risk for Gales.
Rain/fog reduce vsbys over the waters.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Doody
NEAR TERM...WTB/Belk/Doody
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...WTB/Doody
MARINE...WTB/Belk/Doody

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-RIZ008-021645-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Block Island RI-
1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, western
Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-021645-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms will move over the near shore waters this
afternoon. Gusty winds and hail are the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CTZ004-MAZ004>007-012>024-026-RIZ001>007-021645-
Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, northern Rhode Island and southern
Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.
Main risk will be gusty winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Taunton MA
205 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2017

CTZ002-011830-
Hartford CT-
205 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2017

...Strong Thunderstorms Across Central Hartford County...

At 204 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Burlington, or near Farmington, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will accompany this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hartford, West Hartford, East Hartford, Windsor, Wethersfield, South
Windsor, Farmington, Simsbury, Bloomfield, Avon, Canton and
Burlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when this storm approaches. Winds may be strong enough to
produce minor damage, such as a few downed branches.

&&

LAT...LON 4180 7296 4182 7294 4188 7264 4172 7262
      4173 7299 4180 7300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 264DEG 26KT 4178 7293

Sipprell

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Taunton MA
228 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2017

MAZ017-020-RIZ002-004-005-011900-
Northern Bristol MA-Southern Bristol MA-Bristol RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Southeast Providence RI-
228 PM EDT THU JUN 1 2017

...Strong Thunderstorm Sweeping across Providence Harbor and
surrounding regions...

At 227 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cranston, moving east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will accompany this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Providence, Warwick, Cranston, East Providence, West Warwick,
Johnston, Bristol, Somerset, Barrington, Swansea, Seekonk, Rehoboth,
Warren and Dighton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Get indoors when this storm approaches. Winds may be strong enough to
produce minor damage, such as a few downed branches.

&&

LAT...LON 4173 7154 4182 7154 4189 7120 4170 7119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 273DEG 26KT 4178 7148

Sipprell