Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

101 
WHUS71 KBOX 311420
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

ANZ255-256-312230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170331T2300Z-170402T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-312230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170331T2300Z-170402T0100Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-254-312230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0800Z-170402T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ232>234-312230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170331T2300Z-170402T0100Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-312230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0800Z-170402T0100Z/
CAPE COD BAY-
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-312230-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0600Z-170402T0000Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
  KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ230-312230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0046.170401T0300Z-170402T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
1020 AM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS 
  UP TO 35 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

814 
WHUS71 KBOX 312004
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

ANZ254-010415-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0800Z-170402T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0010.170401T0600Z-170402T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE
GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ255-256-010415-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170331T2300Z-170402T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0010.170401T0600Z-170402T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT
TO 20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE
GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ232-010415-
/O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170331T2300Z-170402T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0010.170401T0600Z-170402T2300Z/
NANTUCKET SOUND-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 7 PM EDT
SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  50 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

ANZ230-010415-
/O.UPG.KBOX.SC.Y.0046.170401T0300Z-170402T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0300Z-170402T0000Z/
BOSTON HARBOR-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  40 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-010415-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170331T2300Z-170402T0100Z/
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-251-010415-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0800Z-170402T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT SATURDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-010415-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170331T2300Z-170402T0100Z/
VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  45 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-010415-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0800Z-170402T0100Z/
CAPE COD BAY-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ236-010415-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0028.170401T0600Z-170402T0000Z/
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
404 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
121 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A late season winter storm will bring rain, ice and snow to the
region Friday into Saturday, with the primary impacts expected
north of the Massachusetts turnpike where significant amounts of
wet snow and/or sleet are possible. High pressure brings dry
weather Sunday and Monday, followed by another approaching storm
on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 pm update...
Although overruning persists in upstate NY and N PA this evening
the nose of it, moving into portions of W New England continue
to be lost to dry air thanks to sfc dwpt depressions holding
near 20F or more in spots. This will take some time to overcome,
but would not be surprised to see some if it begin to filter
into portions of extreme W MA/CT by about midnight or so and
continue east from there slowly. HRRR will be used as an update
for overnight POPs as it continues to delay timing each run as
it adjusts to ongoing conditions.

Other concern will be P-type, temps already running much warmer
than most guidance and although there is plenty of room for
radiational cooling dwpts are only in the 20s so they too will
be increasing as wet-bulb process occurs. Most of the precip
measured to the W continues as RA. Therefore, even if it begins
as SN or at least adjusts to SN toward the early morning hours,
am not confident on accumulation on area roadways unless
precipitation rates are high enough, something that has always
been in question.

Previous Discussion...

Dry weather will persist this evening, but clouds will be on
the increase from the west ahead of an approaching low pressure
system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Highlights...

* Friday morning rush hour may be impacted by snow/sleet across the
  interior but the primary impact will likely be in the higher
  terrain

* Low confidence forecast Friday afternoon into Saturday with main
  focus north of the MA Turnpike with main concern snow vs. sleet

Details...

Forecast confidence is quite low for a short term forecast, but will
go over the main issues into Saturday.

Part 1: Friday morning:

First things first, a burst of warm advection precipitation will
affect interior MA and northern CT early Fri am.  A mixture of snow
and sleet will overspread this region roughly between midnight and 6
am.  Precipitation may be mixed with rain in the lower elevations,
so probably not a big impact in that region although some slippery
spots are possible. However, across the higher terrain of northeast
CT and into portions of interior MA roads may be slippery for the
morning commute.  Therefore, opted to post a winter weather advisory.

Meanwhile, across eastern MA and most of RI a mixture of light snow,
sleet and rain may develop Friday morning.  However, core of low
level jet/forcing remains to the west so precipitation will be
light.  Plus with temps above freezing very little impacts are
expected with just wet roads.

Part 2: Friday afternoon and night:

We may see a lull in the activity sometime later Friday morning into
the early afternoon.  However, approaching vigorous closed upper
level low will be moving east from the mid Atlantic states.  This
will increase the forcing for ascent and expect precipitation
intensity to increase Friday afternoon and especially by Fri
evening. At the same time, an area of mid level warmth in the 800 to
850 mb layer will be moving northward.  The models are in
disagreement though in how far north this warmth will get.  The NAM
is the warmest suggesting very little snow even near the NH border
with mainly sleet and some freezing rain.  On the other side of the
coin is the GFS, which produces isothermal soundings and heavy wet
snow even south of the MA turnpike.  Based on the considerable model
uncertainty, we blended the ECMWF/RGEM which seemed to be a
compromise.

Therefore, we think the threat for heavy snow will mainly be north
of the MA turnpike and especially across far north central and
northeast MA.  There may be some marginal marine influence across
the immediate coast, but its quite cold in the 925 to 950 mb layer
so it is more of a question of how warm the 800 to 850 mb layer
gets. This will determine whether we see 6 to 12 inches of wet snow
or mainly a few inches of heavy sleet.  There also may be some
freezing rain across the higher terrain, but that low level cold air
is pretty impressive so if the warm layer invades the region
probably more in the way of sleet. Ptype may change to all rain
along the northeast MA coast if marine influence eventually
wins out, but probably sleet or snow just inland.

Part 3: Saturday

Much of the guidance has slowed the departure of the system with
closed well developed mid level low parked south of southern New
England and strong easterly inflow. This is particularly true across
eastern MA where trowel/comma head may result in heavy precipitation
into Sat afternoon.  Any rain/sleet will probably change back to
snow Sat morning across some of the region especially in northeast
MA, which may continue moderate to heavy at times into the
afternoon.

Headlines and Impacts...

Overall confidence is quite low in any particular outcome.
Therefore, we continued the winter storm watch north of the MA Pike
but expanded it into northeast MA including Boston Fri afternoon
into Sat afternoon.  Snow vs. sleet will be the main story on
amounts which remain uncertain. If higher snow amounts are realized
down tree limbs and scattered power outages are possible given it
will be a wet snow.  Highest risk for this will be near the NH
border.

While we did not bite on the GFS with the high snow amounts south of
the MA Pike, we opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for
northern CT/northwest RI and just south of Boston.  The Fri am rush
hour may be slippery across the higher terrain of the interior with
burst of warm advection precip. In addition, an extended period of
sleet is possible for a time later Friday into Friday evening before
a change to rain. May also be freezing rain across the highest
terrain, depending on specific thermal profiles but enough sleet
mixed in will probably keep ice accretion below one quarter of an
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights...

* Mainly dry but cool conditions Sat night through Sun night
* Low pressure may bring periods of mixed precipitation across
  portions of the interior Mon night into early Tue
* As the low passes during Tue, may see periods of heavy rain
  along the S coast
* Another period of unsettled conditions possible Wed night-Thu

Overview...

Overall progressive pattern continues through most of the long
term period, though may briefly amplify early next week with a
period of dry but cool conditions. Beyond this, looks like there
will be two more weather systems bringing cool and unsettled
conditions.

12Z model suite in general agreement with continued fast flow
aloft. May see upper level ridging slowing the progression down
a bit late Sunday and Monday, but this tends to break down as it
pushes slowly E early next week. Another notable feature during
this period will be the unseasonably cool temps, especially
during the daytime hours, though may be close to normal around
the middle of next week.

Confidence lowers with progression of two possible systems from
about the Mon night-Tue and Thu timeframes, especially with the
fast steering flow aloft.

Details...

Saturday night...Moderate to high confidence.

Low pressure shifts E to the western Atlc, so expect precip to
taper off by about midnight or so. H85 temps will gradually fall
back to -3C to -6C by daybreak Sunday.

There will be some leftover N-NE winds early Sat night across
coastal areas. Gusts will range from 25-30 kt, highest across
the outer Cape and Nantucket, then should diminish as gradient
lessens after midnight. Clouds will begin to clear across the
interior after midnight.

Expect overnight lows to bottom out in the mid 20s across the
higher inland terrain to the lower-mid 30s along the coast.

Sunday-Monday...Moderate to high confidence.

Upper level pattern becomes briefly amplified with long wave
ridging building from Hudson Bay to the SE U.S. coast by Sunday
evening. Large N-S oriented surface high in tandem with the
upper system, so expect dry conditions during most if not all of
this timeframe.

Expect clouds to clear quickly on Sunday. NW winds will
continue, though will be light. This will keep cooler temps in
place, with highs mainly in the mid-upper 40s which is 5 to 10
degrees below seasonal normals.

With mostly clear skies and light/variable or calm winds,
should see good radiational cooling Sunday night. Lows will
range from the mid 20s to mid 30s, except some upper 30 readings
along the immediate S coast.

As the ridge works offshore during Monday, winds shift to E-SE.
Clouds will increase, mainly across western areas during the
afternoon. Expect temps to top off in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Monday night and Tuesday...Moderate confidence.

High pres ridge moves off the New England coast Mon night, with
precip pushing NE with developing southern stream low pressure.
As this low pushes NE out of the southern Appalachians,
associated H5 short wave slides E off the mid Atlantic coast
around 00Z Wed, though some spread of timing and track amongst
the model and ensembles suite noted.

Will carry high end chance POPs for now, with best shot along
the S coast. Looks like good tropical moisture plume moves N as
PWATs increase to 0.9 to 1.2 inches by 12Z Tuesday (highest
values along the S coast, Cape Cod and the Islands). The 1.2
inch value is close to highest PWAT value for the date on SPC
Sounding Climo page. Along with E-SE winds, QPF amounts for this
timeframe from 0.35 to 0.9 inches, highest across the higher
terrain with the upslope wind.

Have forecasted temps running 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal
normals for early April due to thermal pattern and cooler
onshore flow.

Tuesday night through Thursday...Low confidence.

Overall general trends continue to be about average as
progressive upper pattern continues. Cutoff H5 low pressure
pushes out of the mid Mississippi valley by mid week, with
developing surface low pushing across the Great Lakes late
Wed/Wed night. For now, leftover precip from first exiting
system should shift offshore Tue night, then will be mainly dry
on Wed as weak ridging builds across.

Models and ensembles signaling digging H5 long wave
trough/cutoff low across upper Mississippi valley into the
Great Lakes during Wed as associated surface low develops by
Wed evening. Widening model solutions on timing and track of
this low. Overall trend is to shift the low east in the W-SW
flow aloft. Have brought chance POPs into western areas after
midnight Wed night, shifting eastward by Thu morning.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...

Through today...Moderate confidence.
High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in any timing.
Current mainly VFR conditions will give way to MVFR 10Z-16Z as
low clouds and a mix of SN/PL and even occasional RA move across
the region from W-E. Best chance for SN/PL will be north of the
Mass Pike, with more rain mixing in to the S. A brief lull in
precip cannot be ruled out mainly late morning into late
afternoon. IFR then begins to build over late afternoon into
evening as heavier precipitation and lower CIGS move over.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Mainly IFR/LIFR in widespread low CIGS and precipitation.
Precipitation type remains uncertain, but a mix of PL/SN is
most likely N of the Mass Pike, with more RA mixing in to the S.
This does not mean some frozen precip won't mix in further S,
just less likely. NE winds increase, with gusts 20-30 kt at
times inland (especially near the SE coast) with 30-40 kt
possible over the Cape/Islands.

Tomorrow...Moderate confidence.
Mix of SN/PL and RA will gradually end from W to E, such that it
finishes most locations after 18Z. This will allow for
improvement from IFR to brief MVFR then to VFR by evening. Winds
shift to the W-NW with gusts 20-30 kt possible inland.

KBOS TAF...High confidence through about 15Z. Lower confidence
in timing and precip-type there after. Some SN/PL possible late
day, but this may change to rain especially as stronger easterly
component to the wind occurs late day and overnight.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF through 09Z. A mixture of
snow, sleet and rain continue through after sunrise. Confidence
lower later today and tonight, mainly due to uncertainty in
precipitation type.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday night...High confidence.
MVFR-IFR CIGS mainly across central and eastern areas Sat
night, though should improve to VFR from W-E mainly around or
after midnight as precip pushes further offshore. N-NE winds
gusting to 25- 35 kt along the coast, highest across outer Cape
Cod and the islands through midnight, then should diminish as
they back to NW.

Sunday-Sunday night...High confidence.
Expect VFR conditions Sunday-Sunday night. A few spots across
the higher inland terrain may see MVFR CIGS at times Sun
afternoon/evening.

Monday-Tuesday...Low to moderate confidence.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS likely in -RA. May see periods of -SN/-PL/-FZRA
across central and N Mass, mainly N of the Mass Pike after 06Z
Mon through mid morning Monday. Periods of RA/+RA during Tue.
Precip should taper off Tue night.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft thresholds
tonight into Friday morning.

Approaching low pressure will result in increasing winds/seas
late Friday and especially late Friday night into Saturday. Gale
force E-NE wind gusts are expected over the open waters. Warnings
have already been issued beginning later Friday night. Seas may
build to over 15 feet on Saturday with persistent northeast
winds.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday night...Moderate to confidence.

Expect N-NE winds gusting to 30-40 kt early, then will diminish
as they back to N-NW after midnight. Seas ranging up to 10-11
ft on the southern waters and 15-16 ft on the eastern waters
will subside overnight, but remain well above 5 ft. Gale
warnings continue through about midnight, then should lower to
small crafts. Local visibility restrictions in areas of rain
and snow, which will improve on portions of the southern waters
after midnight.

Sunday-Sunday night...High confidence.

Will see leftover NW gusts up to around 25 kt on the outer
waters early Sunday, then will diminish. Seas will continue to
subside, but will remain at or above 5 ft on the eastern outer
waters through Sunday night. Any visibility restrictions on the
eastern outer waters will improve by mid morning Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday...Low to moderate confidence.

Light NW winds on Mon will shift to E-SE Mon night. Seas should
subside below 5 ft Mon morning. Good visibilities early Monday,
then will lower in developing light rain.

By Tuesday, E-NE winds increase, gusting to around 25 kt on the
southern outer waters. Seas build up to 6-8 ft, highest on the
southern outer waters Tue afternoon. Local reduced visibilities in
areas of light rain through the day.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for MAZ007-014-015.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for MAZ013-016.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for MAZ009-011-
     012.
     Winter Storm Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday
     afternoon for MAZ002>006-008-010-026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for RIZ001.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ231.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night
     for ANZ250-251-254.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT Saturday
     night for ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...Frank/Doody
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...Doody/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

MAZ002>006-008-010-026-312200-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts,
eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts and western
Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002>004-MAZ009-011-012-312200-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts and western Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ007-014-015-312200-
Eastern Essex MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts and
northeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Saturday...There is a low risk of splashover along east facing
coastlines during the high tide Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ017>024-RIZ002>008-312200-
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Nantucket MA-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts,
northern Rhode Island and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday into Saturday...Minor snow accumulations are possible with
snow sleet and rain changing to all rain by Saturday. There is a low
risk for minor ice accumulation Friday night across higher
elevations of Central Massachusetts and northern Connecticut.

In addition, there is a low risk of splashover along east facing
coastlines during the high tide Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ013-016-RIZ001-312200-
Western Norfolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northwest Providence RI-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts and
northern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Saturday...There is a low risk of splashover along east facing
coastlines during the high tide Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ255-256-312200-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ250-251-254-312200-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ232>235-237-312200-
Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-
Block Island Sound-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-312200-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Friday night and Saturday...There is a low risk of easterly gales.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231-312200-
Cape Cod Bay-
553 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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