Small Craft Advisory 138, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

697 
WHUS71 KBOX 010322
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1022 PM EST THU NOV 30 2017

ANZ250-254-255-011130-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.171201T1600Z-171202T0800Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
1022 PM EST THU NOV 30 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO
3 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

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807 
WHUS71 KBOX 010842
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
342 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

ANZ231-232-251-011645-
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.171201T1600Z-171202T0200Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
342 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST
THIS EVENING.

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ250-254-255-011645-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.171201T1600Z-171202T0200Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
342 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
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@NWSBOSTON

241 
WHUS71 KBOX 011426
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
926 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2017


ANZ250-254-255-012230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.171201T1600Z-171202T0200Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
926 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ231-232-251-012230-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.171201T1600Z-171202T0200Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
926 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  25 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FRANK

075 
WHUS71 KBOX 012032
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
332 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

ANZ231-232-251-012145-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.000000T0000Z-171202T0200Z/
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
332 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

ANZ250-254-255-020400-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.000000T0000Z-171202T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
332 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 
  KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

FRANK

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
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YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

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@NWSBOSTON

376 
WHUS71 KBOX 020000
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
700 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

ANZ250-254-255-020100-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0138.000000T0000Z-171202T0400Z/
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD
AND NANTUCKET-
700 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1256 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over New England moves east today, but provides
dry and seasonably cool conditions. Clouds will increase from
south to north this afternoon. A cold front brings scattered
showers tonight and early Friday. High pressure then brings dry
weather into the weekend. Initially warm and breezy ahead of a
cold front expected to sweep through the area on Wednesday,
followed by colder, Arctic air towards the later half of next
week into the following weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

1255 pm update...

High pressure slowly moving off the coast has allowed for warm
advection aloft and a fair amount of mid/high level cloudiness
to develop early this afternoon. Temps were generally in the
upper 30s across the lower CT River Valley and high terrain with
lower to middle 40s elsewhere. Probably will only see highs rise
another degree or two, but with rather light winds not a bad day
by any means to close out November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Tonight...

Northern stream shortwave moves from the Great Lakes into New
England. Cross sections show moisture from the surface to 600
mb. The right-entrance region of the upper jet sweeps across our
region around and after midnight, bringing modest lift. Expect a
period of showers in most of Southern New England. Available
moisture is modest, but enough to support a few hundredths.
Model timing on the frontal passage looks similar, roughly
05-06Z in and west of the CT Valley, 08-09z Central Hills, and
11-12Z in the coastal plain.

After a quick fall at sunset, expect the clouds and south flow
to keep temps steady or slowly rise overnight, then fall again
after cold front passage. Expect temps during the precipitation
will be in the 40s with evening or late night mins in the 30s
inland and lower 40s along the coast.

Friday...

Upper trough and cold pool move overhead on Friday. Dry air will
allow clearing for the afternoon. The colder air aloft should
allow somewhat better mixing, but the mixed layer looks to
remain no higher than 925 mb. Maximum winds in this layer a
forecast around 20 knots. Temperatures at 925 mb reach -2C to
+2C, which would support max temps in the 40s to around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Around Sunday / Monday monitoring high astro tides and N winds
 - Potential nearby inverted "NORLUN" trof Sunday night into Monday
 - Warm up Tuesday and Wednesday prior to a sweeping cold front
 - Widespread rain, embedded heavier showers along the cold front
 - Arctic air settling in during late week into the following weekend

*/ Overview...

Winter is coming. Step back to the present, deep exchange ongoing
over the N Atlantic and W Europe. Highly amplified, a wall is in
place. Nothing abating upstream, the Pacific jet continues to pump
mid-level energy across the CONUS through the zonal flow. Bottling
up, one after another, across the Central N Atlantic, the blocking
wall retrogrades from 30W to 60W longitude over the weekend into
early next week. Slowed to stopped flow upstream, no where to go,
the pattern amplifies, energy becomes displaced around the N pole,
especially as mid-level disturbances jam up across E Canada. S draw
of Arctic air magnified via S shear courtesy of amplified H5 ridging
over Western N America, aided perhaps via MJO contributions, looking
at H85 temperature anomalies on the order of -10 to -12C towards the
end of the week around the Midwest (actual values aloft around -10
to -15C). Much of the region mid to late week, including our neck of
the woods, will see unseasonably cold 2m temperatures. The jam up
over E Canada, going into the following weekend, attention will be
needed upon additional mid-level disturbances as they rotate through
the amplified ridge-trof flow spread across the CONUS. Looking for
sub-tropical connections coincident with strong dynamics and robust
curvature associated with any trof amplification across regions of
baroclinicity that'll aid in storm development, this as Arctic air
continues to spill S rearward, especially over the N Central CONUS.

The first half of the long-term forecast period beginning Friday
night is mundane with the only concern being the proximity of the
jam up across the NW Atlantic and the influence of N winds as we
observe a period of high astronomical tides. With the continued
zonal flow into midweek, looking at an ebb and flow pattern of near
seasonable conditions followed by abnormal warmth prior to a sharp
cold front sweeping the region Wednesday.

It's behind the cold front that undoubtedly the NE CONUS finds
itself on the cold and dry side of the envelope towards late week
with a potential brush of winter-weather outcomes well N/W as low
pressure develops and deepens over E Canada. Bottled up, we must
watch for additional energy rotating through the amplified pattern,
if there are any storm implications for our region. However, in
evaluating mean ensemble guidance, it's possible the plug is pulled
across the N Atlantic allowing zonal "escape" flow E by the weekend,
the downstream wall potentially having broken open.

Not sold on the late period 30.0z EC just yet. Considerable spread
in ensemble guidance and a lot of moving parts that are 6 to 10 days
out, low confidence in the forecast further out in time. Will hit
upon any forecast considerations along with threats and impacts in
the discussion below.

*/ Discussion...

Saturday night through Monday night...

Jam up across the N Atlantic, monitoring northerly winds round
deepening storm development E, well offshore, potential impacts upon
N-facing shores during a period of high astro tides. This as
additional mid-level energy sweeps the region which could lead to an
inverted "NORLUN" trof Sunday into early Monday NE of our region
across coastal Maine (push of colder air aloft, steeper lapse rates
possibly on up to H7, in a region of mid-level ascent and height
falls bringing about low-level convergent focus potential). Local
enhancement to the N wind profile as high tides for Boston are
forecast around 12.0 to 12.3 feet, for N facing shores there's the
threat of minor coastal flooding, especially along vulnerable
shoreline roads. See the COASTAL FLOODING section below. Near to
slightly below seasonable conditions throughout.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

Sweeping cold front. Period of widespread rain with embedded heavier
showers given decent sub-tropical connection of higher theta-E under-
going convergent forcing along the cold front and nose of low-level
winds. Speaking of and considering strong warm air advection aloft,
need to monitor the Tuesday night into early Wednesday time-frame
for the possibility of strong SW winds, especially over SE New
England. Early to say right now as to if headlines will be needed.
Consistent signal within all model guidance of a stout SW jet at
H925 up around 50 to 55 mph mainly over far SE New England. Aside,
looking at the last gasp of warm temperatures before winter ushers
in. Highs potentially topping out above 60 over SE New England on
Wednesday just prior to cold frontal passage. The 30.0z GFS is still
slightly faster to the 30.0z EC, the 30.0z Canadian in-between. Will
lean on the 30.0z EC with this run. Echoing the previous forecaster
but perhaps too early to say is whether quickly undercutting colder
air will lend to some changing precipitation types towards snow on
the backside of the sweeping cold front prior to the dry slot
wrapping in and everything exiting out.

Wednesday night onward...

On the cold, dry side of the envelope. Leaning towards the 30.0z EC
with the dry slot wrapping around the deepening low center jammed up
across E Canada with no where to go. NW flow rearward, cross-polar
implications with Arctic air spilling S, lake effect snow machine
ongoing, could see some snow shower activity stream as far S/E as
the Berkshires. As we go into the end of the week, with preference
to ensemble means rather than operational forecast model runs,
colder air driving in, looking at temperatures below average for
early December. No certainty otherwise especially concerning
specific outcomes and impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...

This afternoon...Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions
dominate with plenty of mid/high level cloudiness in the region.
However, some marginal MVFR cigs will impact the region at times,
mainly across the interior and the south coast.

Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. A broken deck of clouds will
generally range from low end VFR to MVFR at times. Brief band of
showers sweeps across the interior between 10 pm and 2 am,
impacting eastern MA/RI between 1 and 5 am although may linger a
bit longer across the southeast New England coast. Showers will
be most numerous across western MA, but probably become more hit
and miss as they move into portions of eastern MA/RI.

Friday and Friday night...High confidence. VFR conditions other
than perhaps some marginal MVFR cigs developing Friday night
across the Cape/Ack with ocean effect cloud potential. Northwest
winds may gust to around 20 knots Friday afternoon and perhaps
up to 25 knots along the immediate coast.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...High confidence.

Saturday through Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/...Moderate-High confidence.

Today...

High pressure over the waters this morning moves east this
afternoon. Still some very marginal 5 foot seas across our far
eastern waters, but coverage was so limited opted to cancel
marine headlines. Winds shift to the south this afternoon with
some gusts to 20 knots possible by early evening.

Tonight...

Cold front sweeps east across New England, crossing the waters
late at night. Expect scattered showers along and ahead of this
front with MVFR cigs and vsbys. South winds shift from the
northwest after the cold front moves through.

Friday...

A few showers early, then clearing skies. Northwest winds less
than 25 knots and seas less than 5 feet.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...Moderate confidence.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical high tides reach 12.0-12.3 feet each mid day through
Tuesday. This will be the third highest monthly high tide for 2017
at Boston and fourth highest at Newport.

An offshore low is expected to develop and wobble S of Nova Scotia
by the weekend rearward of which there is the possibility of an
inverted trough along with an enhancement in northerly flow Sunday
night into Monday. Continuing to monitor with later forecasts, there
is concern of minor coastal flooding occurring at the time of high
tide, impacting vulnerable shoreline roadways.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Frank/WTB/Sipprell
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
311 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-010815-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
311 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-010815-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
311 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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