Alert archive / Massachusetts / High Wind Watches in 2017

High Wind Watch 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

January 21, 2017Barnstable County, Dukes County, Nantucket County, Massachusetts; Washington County, Rhode Island

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this high wind watch at Jan 21, 2017, 4:00 AM EST for Barnstable County, Dukes County, Nantucket County, Massachusetts; Washington County, Rhode Island. It took effect at Jan 23, 2017, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 218 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 21, 2017, 4:00 AM EST (09:00 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 23, 2017, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Aug 29, 2017, 3:54 PM EDT
In force
218 days
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Counties Barnstable County, MA, Dukes County, MA, Nantucket County, MA, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Chatham, MA (KCHH), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Chatham, MA at 00:00Z on 2017-01-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Chatham, MA at 00:00Z on 2017-01-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -2 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
877 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

713 
WWUS71 KBOX 210900
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-211700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0001.170123T1200Z-170124T0900Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BLOCK ISLAND
400 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATION...CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK
  ISLAND.

* WINDS...EAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...STRONG EAST WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND
  POWER LINES. THE WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER
LINES...AS WELL CAUSING PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

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@NWSBOSTON
5 follow-up statements
499 
WWUS71 KBOX 211546
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1046 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-212200-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.A.0001.170123T1200Z-170124T0900Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BLOCK ISLAND
1046 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATION...CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK 
  ISLAND.

* WINDS...EAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...STRONG EAST WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES 
  AND POWER LINES. THE WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER
LINES...AS WELL CAUSING PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON
639 
WWUS71 KBOX 212125
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-220530-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0001.170123T1200Z-170124T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0001.170123T1400Z-170124T0900Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...BLOCK ISLAND
425 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATION...CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK 
  ISLAND.

* WINDS...EAST 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...STRONG EAST WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES 
  AND POWER LINES. THE WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND POWER
LINES...AS WELL CAUSING PROPERTY DAMAGE. IF A HIGH WIND WARNING
IS ISSUED...STAY INSIDE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
TAKE ACTION TO SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

$$

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON
977 
WWUS71 KBOX 290837
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
437 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

MAZ022-023-291645-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.170830T0600Z-170830T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Vineyard Haven
437 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday.

* Location...Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.

* Impacts...Loose objects like trash cans may be blow around. 
  Small tree limbs and branches may be downed, causing isolated
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

MAZ024-291645-
/O.NEW.KBOX.HW.A.0001.170830T0600Z-170830T1800Z/
Nantucket MA-
Including the city of Nantucket
437 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from late tonight through Wednesday
afternoon.

* Location...Nantucket

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph
  possible.

* Timing...Late tonight into early Wednesday afternoon.

* Impacts...The potential exists for trees and power lines to be
  knocked down, causing power outages and property damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means the potential exists for a damaging wind
event. These strong winds are capable of downing trees and power
lines, as well causing property damage. If a high wind warning is
issued, stay inside and away from windows.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston
507 
WWUS71 KBOX 291438
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

MAZ022-023-292245-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.170830T0600Z-170830T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Vineyard Haven
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* Location...Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Timing...Late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.

* Impacts...Loose objects like trash cans may be blow around. 
  Small tree limbs and branches may be downed, causing isolated 
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

MAZ024-292245-
/O.CON.KBOX.HW.A.0001.170830T0600Z-170830T1800Z/
Nantucket MA-
Including the city of Nantucket
1038 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

* Location...Nantucket

* Winds...Northeast 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph 
  possible.

* Timing...Late tonight into early Wednesday afternoon.

* Impacts...The potential exists for trees and power lines to be 
  knocked down, causing power outages and property damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means the potential exists for a damaging wind
event. These strong winds are capable of downing trees and power
lines, as well causing property damage. If a high wind warning is
issued, stay inside and away from windows.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston
730 
WWUS71 KBOX 291954
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Taunton MA
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

MAZ024-300400-
/O.UPG.KBOX.HW.A.0001.170830T0600Z-170830T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.170830T0600Z-170830T1800Z/
Nantucket MA-
Including the city of Nantucket
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday. The
High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* Location...Nantucket

* Winds...Northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Late tonight into early Wednesday afternoon.

* Impacts...The potential exists for trees and power lines to be 
  knocked down, causing power outages and property damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

MAZ022-023-300400-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0019.170830T0600Z-170830T1800Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Vineyard Haven
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* Location...Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard

* Winds...Northeast 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Late tonight through early Wednesday afternoon.

* Impacts...Loose objects like trash cans may be blow around. 
  Small tree limbs and branches may be downed, causing isolated 
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph are
expected, with gusts between 46 to 57 mph. Winds this strong are
capable of downing small tree limbs and branches, possibly
causing isolated power outages. Driving can also be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Jan 21, 3:05 AM EST, 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 21, 3:05 AM EST, 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
305 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bring tranquil weather into Sunday. A
significant coastal storm will push toward the region Sunday
night, bringing a mix of rain and/or snow, along with some icing
conditions possible inland. This storm may bring strong to
possibly damaging winds to coastal areas, and be potentially
dangerous for mariners late Monday into Tuesday. High pressure
brings dry weather for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak mid level shortwave moves to the east today as weak high pres
builds in from the west. Main forecast challenge is timing of any
clearing this afternoon as low level moisture may remain trapped
below shallow inversion. Expect low clouds to linger through at
least the morning and it could be later, but we indicated some
partial clearing developing in the afternoon from west to east as
westerly flow becomes established. We have highs in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight...
Weak high pres will be over the region with light to near calm
winds. Model cross sections indicate enough low level moisture
for patchy low clouds and fog to develop. Not certain of the areal
extent of low clouds but best chance will likely be along the
south coast. Lows will be mostly in the 30s.

Sunday...
Weak cold front will sag south across SNE during the day as
surface ridging noses down from northern New Eng with increasing
NE flow developing in the afternoon. The NE flow and increasing
low level moisture will result in widespread lower clouds
developing across SNE and can't rule out some spotty light rain
or drizzle in the afternoon. High will range from lower 40s north
to upper 40s south but cooling from the north in the afternoon
with temps likely falling into the 30s north of the Pike.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Details...

Sunday...

Weak front pushes S across the region early Sunday. Should be
mainly dry across the region through midday as ridging builds down
the coast. However, leading edge of precip working NE from
strengthening low pres across the SE U.S. will start to approach
during the afternoon. Light/variable winds will shift to N-NE,
then eventually E during the day as the ridge over Quebec shifts
E. E-NE winds will start to increase along the S coast late in the
day as pres gradient increases between the exiting high to the
north and the strong low pressure over the southern Appalachians.
Gusts may approach 25-30 kt across S coastal RI and Block Island
by 00Z Mon.

Have brought low CHC POPs int S coastal areas between 21Z and 00Z
as leading edge of precip slowly approaches.

Highs will be mainly in the 40s.

Sunday night through Tuesday...

Impressive low pressure will continue to strengthen as it
approaches the mid Atlc coast, along with its H5 cutoff low
swinging across the SE U.S. Good low level moisture plume with
this system, with PWATs around 1 to 1.25 inches crossing the
region. Mid level system becomes negatively tilted as it rotates
NE during the day Monday. This will bring good amounts of QPF
across the region on the strengthening E wind flow. QPF forecast
of 1.25" across NW Mass ranging to 2-2.25" across SE Mass/RI
through 00Z Wed.

Big question with this system will be how much colder air can
filter down across the interior and, if this does occur, there
will be PTYPE issues. At this point, looks like mainly rain across
the coastal plain, with a wintry mix of RN/SN/IP mainly but could
also see some FZRA mixed in mainly across N Mass along the Route 2
corridor to the MA/NH border for a time. Partial thickness
patterns suggest mainly SN and IP at this point, though expect
rather low rain/snow ratios as temps only fall back to the upper
20s to around 30. During Tuesday, with strong easterly flow off
the ocean, will see precip change over to rain across all areas.

Best shot for precip looks to occur from mid-late morning Monday
through Monday night. This is also when heaviest rain is expected.

Another aspect of this storm will be the winds. Noting a very
strong low level jet, on order of 60-70 kt at 900 hPa, will come
close to if not over S coastal Mass. Have noted excellent mixing
from 900 hPa downward, so could see gusts up to 45-50 kt across
Cape Cod and the islands, and possibly across more areas along E
coastal Mass and possibly as far W as E RI late Monday and Monday
night. High wind warnings will likely be needed, but too early to
issue now.

Some timing and track issues for the low's exit, but looks like it
should push across Cape Cod or Nantucket sometime Tue afternoon.
Back of precip shield should exit late Tue or Tue evening. Clouds
will linger through the night, though could break toward daybreak
across the southern CT valley.

Wednesday through Friday...

Weak high pressure will build across the region Wednesday,
bringing dry and mild conditions.

Another fast moving front will cross the region during Thursday.
This system looks rather dry as most of the moisture and energy
moves into northern New England. However, can not rule out some
patchy light rain and/or snow across the E slopes of the
Berkshires, with light rain possible through the remainder of the
CT valley.

A persistent NW wind flow will be in place by Friday, along with
the chance for some isolated light rain and/or snow showers as a
digging upper level trough approaches during the day and into
Friday night. Temperatures will be at more seasonal levels for
late January.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...

Through 12z...
Widespread MVFR with areas of IFR cigs and patchy fog. Spotty
light rain possible, mainly south of the Mass Pike.

Today...
Moderate confidence. MVFR/IFR cigs in the morning with patchy
fog, improving to VFR in the afternoon.

Tonight...
Moderate confidence in patchy MVFR/IFR fog developing, but low
confidence in potential for IFR cigs. Guidance is ranging from
VFR to IFR/LIFR. If IFR cigs develop, highest prob likely along
the south coast.

Sunday...
Moderate confidence. Widespread MVFR cigs developing with
potential for IFR in the afternoon. Patchy light rain or drizzle
possible in the afternoon. Increasing NE winds along the coast in
the afternoon with gusts to 20 kt developing.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Moderate confidence.

Sunday night through Monday night...
MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS across the region Sunday night in rain and/or
snow, with some IP developing after midnight and continuing
through Monday. May see LIFR conditions Monday afternoon into
early Tuesday morning in patchy moderate rain and/or snow and
patchy fog. E wind gusts up to 40-50 kt likely along portions of
the immediate S coast, especially the outer Cape and Nantucket Mon
night. LLWS likely as E winds at around 2000 ft increases to 50-70
kt Mon night.

Tuesday...
Areas of IFR CIGS/VSBYS in RA/SN/FZRA early, changing over to RA
during the day. Precip mixes to FZRA/IP/SN over western areas
early Tue night before ending. IFR-LIFR CIGS linger Tue night
across eastern areas through midnight or so, then should improve
toward daybreak Wed.

Wednesday...
May see local MVFR-IFR conditions across the E slopes of the
Berkshires into the CT valley and central areas in SN/IP/FZRA as
cold front approaches. Most of the energy remains N and W of the
region, so looks like mainly VFR conditions elsewhere. NW winds
around 10 kt shift to SW during the day. Conditions should improve
Wed night.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/...High confidence.

Today...Southerly winds becoming W/SW in the afternoon with gusts
15-20 kt at times. Easterly swell of 4 to 5 ft develolping over
the outer waters.

Tonight...W winds gradually becoming N after midnight as weak cold
front moves into the waters from the north. Some lingering 5 ft
swell over the eastern waters.

Sunday...Increasing NE winds, epecially in the afternoon with
gusts to 20 kt developing. G25 kt over southern waters by evening.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...Moderate confidence.

Sunday night through Tuesday...
Strengthening low pressure of the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night
will push NE. Expect E winds to rapidly increase as strong winds
will mix down from about 3000-5000 ft. Gusts will likely reach
50-60 kt across a good portion of the waters. Have already issued
storm watches across most of the waters due to the potential
threat of prolonged storm force winds. Seas will also build up to
15-20 ft. Expect the strongest winds and highest seas during
Monday afternoon and night. This is a potentially life threatening
storm for mariners. Visibility restrictions in rain and patchy fog
likely through most of Tuesday.

As the low passes across SE Mass toward the Gulf of Maine,
leftover gale force winds will push out of the eastern open waters
Tuesday morning. Winds will briefly diminish around midday and
through the afternoon Tuesday, then NW gusts could reach 25-30 kt
Tue night. Seas will remain at or above 5 ft over the open waters
through Tuesday night. Some visibility restrictions continue
early, then should improve from S-N.

Wednesday...
Winds will diminish as they back to W-SW during Wed. May see some
gusts up to 25 kt on the southern waters. Seas remain at or above
5 ft over the open waters. May see some visibility restrictions
on the waters S of RI in patchy light rain Wed afternoon and
night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Given potent easterly LLJ and period of strong wind gusts, expect
seas to probably build to 20 feet or higher across the eastern
waters late Mon into Tue. Fortunately, astronomical high tides are
about as low as they get, and the strongest winds Monday evening
will coincide with an astro high tide of only 8.2 feet in Boston.
Thus the risk of any significant coastal flooding is low. In fact,
it is hard to imagine a scenario of much worse than some
splashover for the Monday evening high tide, thanks to the lowness
of the astro high tide. The Tuesday morning high tide is higher at
9.4 feet. If winds are still blowing strong out of the northeast
along with 20+ foot seas just offshore, minor coastal flooding
could occur along the eastern MA coast. It would take a storm
surge of nearly 3.5 feet and waves greater than 20 feet to even
approach a moderate level of coastal flooding. Unless this system
progresses much more slowly than the current consensus of models
indicate, it is unlikely that we will experience anything worse
than minor coastal flooding and some beach erosion for the Tuesday
morning high tide in spite of such dangerous marine conditions
just offshore.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night
     for ANZ232.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for
     ANZ233-234.
     Gale Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     ANZ230.
     Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     ANZ231.
     Gale Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday night
     for ANZ236.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     ANZ235-237.
     Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for
     ANZ250-254.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for
     ANZ251.
     Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for
     ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...EVT/JWD
AVIATION...KJC/EVT/JWD
MARINE...KJC/EVT/JWD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 21, 3:57 AM EST, 3 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

CTZ002>004-MAZ005>007-010>021-RIZ001>007-220900-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

A PERIOD OF STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH A RISK FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR ICE WILL BE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WORCESTER HILLS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SLEET AND WET SNOW AT THE
ONSET.

ALTHOUGH RIVER FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY, HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SOME SPLASHOVER IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE. IF THE STORM DOES NOT PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH, THEN THERE
COULD BE A RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG EAST FACING SHORELINES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ002>004-008-009-026-220900-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER 10 PM
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND FAR NORTHERN
WORCESTER COUNTY. A SITUATION MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT WHERE MOST ROADS
ARE DRY OR JUST WET BUT INTERSPERSED WITH DANGEROUS PATCHES OF
ICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
OF HEAVY WET SNOW...SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY EVENTUALLY CHANGE
TO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF STRONG EASTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY
FOR A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MAZ022>024-RIZ008-220900-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WATCH.

A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET AND WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET.

HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

SOME SPLASHOVER IS POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH
TIDE. IF THE STORM DOES NOT PULL AWAY FAST ENOUGH, THEN THERE
COULD BE A RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE TUESDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG EAST FACING SHORELINES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ255-256-220900-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ250-254-220900-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ231-251-220900-
CAPE COD BAY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ235-237-220900-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ236-220900-
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ230-220900-
BOSTON HARBOR-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ233-234-220900-
VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ232-220900-
NANTUCKET SOUND-
357 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jan 20, 10:03 PM EST, 5 hours 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1003 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

MAZ002>004-008-026-210930-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
Including the cities of...Charlemont...Greenfield...Orange...
Barre...Fitchburg...Chesterfield...Ayer
1003 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

...Spotty Light Freezing Rain Possible Across Northern
Massachusetts Tonight...

Spotty light rain or sprinkles may produce patchy ice on road and
walking surfaces across interior northern Massachusetts tonight,
mainly along and north of the route 2 corridor where temperatures
will be near freezing. The risk of spotty freezing rain will be
highest between midnight and 6 AM Saturday. Although only spotty
and very light precipitation is expected, it takes only a little
amount of freezing rain on bare and untreated surfaces to make
driving and walking treacherous.

Drivers across northern Massachusetts should exercise extra
caution if any precipitation is encountered tonight and check to
see if the rain is freezing upon road surfaces.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 21, 4:18 PM ESTGale WarningBOX67 hr
Jan 21, 4:18 PM ESTStorm WarningBOX66 hr
Jan 21, 4:25 PM ESTHigh Wind WarningBOXBarnstable, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth65 hr
Jan 21, 4:47 PM ESTFlood WatchBOXBristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk65 hr

Nearby

High Wind Watches in Massachusetts, 2017High Wind Watches in Rhode Island, 2017Every high wind watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.