Alert archive / Massachusetts / Flash Flood Watches in 2017

Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

September 18, 2017Barnstable County, Nantucket County, Massachusetts

NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this flash flood watch at Sep 18, 2017, 4:18 PM EDT for Barnstable County, Nantucket County, Massachusetts. It took effect at Sep 19, 2017, 6:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 34 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 18, 2017, 4:18 PM EDT (20:18 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 19, 2017, 6:00 PM EDT
Expired
Sep 21, 2017, 4:16 AM EDT
In force
34 hr
Issued by
NWS Boston/Norton, MA
Flood severity
None

Counties Barnstable County, MA, Nantucket County, MA

The radar

The Boston radar (KBOX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Chatham, MA (KCHH), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Chatham, MA at 12:00Z on 2017-09-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Chatham, MA at 12:00Z on 2017-09-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 75 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-156 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
589 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

119 
WGUS61 KBOX 182018
FFABOX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
418 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

MAZ022-024-190430-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FF.A.0007.170919T2200Z-170920T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Nantucket
418 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for Barnstable County and Nantucket. 

* From Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon

* Jose, currently sitting well south of Nantucket will shift
  north, then eastward through Wednesday. This will bring bands of
  heavy rain mainly to Nantucket and Cape Cod as it makes its
  closest pass late tomorrow into early Wednesday. Continued bands
  of heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding,
  exacerbated by the inability of each high tide cycle to fully
  drain. As much as 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
8 follow-up statements
950 
WGUS61 KBOX 190824
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
424 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

MAZ022-024-191630-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0007.170919T2200Z-170920T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Nantucket
424 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeastern Massachusetts, including the 
  following areas, Barnstable and Nantucket. 

* From this evening through Wednesday afternoon

* Jose, currently sitting well south of Nantucket will shift
  north, then eastward through Wednesday. This will bring bands of
  heavy rain mainly to Nantucket and Cape Cod as it makes its
  closest pass late tomorrow into early Wednesday. Continued bands
  of heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding,
  exacerbated by the inability of each high tide cycle to fully  
  drain. As much as 3 to 6 inches of rainfall is expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
730 
WGUS61 KBOX 191507
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1107 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

MAZ022-024-192315-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0007.170919T2200Z-170920T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Nantucket
1107 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeastern Massachusetts, including the 
  following areas, Barnstable and Nantucket. 

* From 6 PM EDT this evening through Wednesday afternoon

* Jose, currently sitting south of Nantucket will shift north,
  then eastward through Wednesday. This will bring bands of heavy
  rain mainly to Nantucket and Cape Cod as it makes its closest
  pass overnight into early Wednesday. Continued bands of heavy 
  rain could lead to localized flash flooding, exacerbated by the 
  inability of each high tide cycle to fully drain. As much as 3 
  to 5 inches of rainfall is expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
492 
WGUS61 KBOX 200206
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1006 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

MAZ022-024-201015-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170920T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Nantucket
1006 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeastern Massachusetts, including the 
  following areas, Barnstable and Nantucket. 

* Through Wednesday afternoon

* Jose, currently sitting south of Nantucket will shift north,
  then eastward through Wednesday. This will bring bands of heavy
  rain mainly to Nantucket and Cape Cod as it makes its closest
  pass overnight into early Wednesday. Continued bands of heavy
  rain could lead to localized flash flooding, exacerbated by the
  inability of each high tide cycle to fully drain. As much as 3
  to 5 inches of rainfall is expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
446 
WGUS61 KBOX 200903
FFABOX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
503 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

MAZ022-024-201715-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170921T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Nantucket
503 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of southeastern Massachusetts, including the 
  following areas, Barnstable and Nantucket. 

* Through Thursday morning

* Jose, currently sitting south of Nantucket will shift northeast
  today. This will bring bands of heavy rain mainly to Nantucket
  and Cape Cod as it makes its closest pass. Continued bands of 
  heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding, exacerbated 
  by the inability of each high tide cycle to fully drain. As much
  as 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is expected. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

wtb
199 
WGUS61 KBOX 201517
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1117 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

MAZ022-024-202330-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170921T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barnstable MA-Nantucket MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
and Nantucket
1117 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeastern Massachusetts, including the 
  following areas, Barnstable and Nantucket. 

* Through Thursday morning

* Jose, currently sitting south of Nantucket will continue to
  slide northeast today. This will bring bands of heavy rain 
  mainly to Nantucket and Cape Cod as it makes its closest pass. 
  Continued bands of heavy rain could lead to localized flash 
  flooding, exacerbated by the inability of each high tide cycle 
  to fully drain. As much as 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is 
  expected. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
776 
WGUS61 KBOX 202004
FFABOX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
404 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

MAZ022-202115-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170921T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Barnstable MA-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, and Provincetown
404 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeastern Massachusetts
has been cancelled. 

Although some rain bands from Jose may continue to impact the Cape
through Friday, the heaviest rainfall is expected to remain
offshore.  Therefore the Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled.

$$

MAZ024-210415-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170921T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nantucket MA-
Including the city of Nantucket
404 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Nantucket. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Jose, currently sitting south of Nantucket will continue to
  slide east overnight. This will bring bands of heavy rain mainly
  to Nantucket. Continued bands of heavy rain could lead to
  localized flash flooding, exacerbated by the inability of each
  high tide cycle to fully drain. As much as 3 to 5 inches of
  rainfall is expected through tomorrow night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
969 
WGUS61 KBOX 210224
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1024 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

MAZ024-211030-
/O.CON.KBOX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170921T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nantucket MA-
Including the city of Nantucket
1024 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeastern Massachusetts, including the 
  following area, Nantucket. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Jose, currently sitting south of Nantucket will continue to 
  slide east overnight. This will bring bands of heavy rain 
  mainly to Nantucket. Continued bands of heavy rain could lead 
  to localized flash flooding, exacerbated by the inability of 
  each high tide cycle to fully drain. As much as 3 to 5 inches 
  of rainfall is expected through tomorrow night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
869 
WGUS61 KBOX 210816
FFABOX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
416 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED...


MAZ024-210930-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-170921T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Nantucket MA-
Including the city of Nantucket
416 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Nantucket has been cancelled. While
showers and locally heavy downpours will still take place today,
rainfall amounts are expected to be spread out over a longer
period of time. Thus the risk of flash flooding has diminished.

$$

WTB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 18, 1:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 18, 1:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
133 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build across New England Monday as
Hurricane Jose lifts slowly north from the Mid Atlantic offshore
waters. Hurricane Jose will bring high surf and dangerous rip
currents through the end of the week. Wind and rain effects are
likely, especially across Cape Cod and the islands Tuesday into
Wednesday. However, the full extent of these impacts and their
timing remains dependent on the storm track and intensity. High
pressure then slowly builds over the region from the north with
drier and seasonable weather Thursday through Sunday across the
interior.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10AM update...
Primary issue today is the low clouds which remain trapped
beneath a modest subsidence inversion aloft. Guidance is likely
too fast in eroding this cloud deck, and indeed this has been
the trend through the morning. Given this, leaned more heavily
on the short-fused guidance which was more robust. Also, made
several manual edits to the MET for temperatures, which was the
coolest guidance available, but still warming way too fast given
the expected cloud cover. Otherwise, other forecast parameters
on track, only change was to slow onset of precip this evening,
but this will be re-assessed through the day.

Previous Discussion...

As for today, expect the fog and low stratus clouds to lift and
dissipate during the morning through midday. WIll start to see
clouds break up across N central and W Mass by around midday,
but more clouds will linger through the day across the coastal
plain as the onshore wind flow persists keeping lots of low
level moisture working in.

Nose of surface high pressure extends westward from the
Maritimes SW along the Maine coast will keep a steady E-NE wind
flow in place, increasing during the day with tightening pres
gradient between the high to the NE and Jose. May start to see
some widely scattered showers develop in the moist flow mainly
near and S of the Mass Pike. Have mainly slight chance POPs
going from midday onward.

With a lot of clouds onshore wind across eastern areas, temps
will only reach to the lower-mid 70s. With some sun across the
CT valley, though, readings could reach the upper 70s, possibly
touching 80 in a few spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
***Tropical Storm Warnings posted for south coastal RI
 including Block Island, south coastal MA, Cape and Islands, and
 southeast coastal MA including Plymouth MA***

Tonight...
Jose will continue its slow trek northward during the night,
with increasing chances for rainfall. Note steadily increasing
PWATs especially across E Mass into RI, upwards to 1.7 to 1.9
inches highest across SE coastal Mass, Cape Cod and the islands.

Noting increasing upper level SW jet on leading edge of Jose's
circulation, along with the increased moisture could be see a
PRE signature trying to form overnight. However, big question is
whether the RRQ of the upper jet ahead of the main circulation
get too far N of the baroclinic zone and PWAT moisture plume.
Something that bears watching.

In any event, will see rainfall threat increase during the
night, with LKLY POPs across most of the coastal plain after
midnight. E-NE winds will steadily increase during the night,
especially along the S coast, Cape Cod and the islands with
gusts up to around 25 kt toward daybreak.

Temps will fall back to the lower-mid 60s, possibly a bit
cooler across the E slopes of the Berkshires.

High surf...
Long period southerly swell from Hurricane Jose will continue
to increase, with swells possibly reaching 10 ft over the
southern waters through tonight resulting in high surf and
dangerous rip currents. Thereafter, swells will transition to
more of a wind wave as winds increase. High surf advisories
remain in effect for the southern beaches of Mass and RI through
this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes to this portion of the forecast. Favored the
solution of the 00Z GFS and 21Z SREF, which was supported by the
00Z ECMWF. Vast majority of the 18/00Z CMC and GFS ensemble
members now keep the center of Jose out near the 40N/70W
benchmark. Will be interesting to see if the 18/00Z ECMWF
ensembles follow suit. No changes to the existing Tropical Storm
Watches planned at this time.

Once common theme in the 18/00Z guidance suite is that Jose may
linger for quite some time off to our southeast. This will
mainly be an issue for mariners. But it pretty much guarantees
an elevated risk for rip currents along the New England
coastline the rest of this week, and perhaps into next week
depending upon any contribution from Hurricane Maria.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Jose remains in the spotlight.

Increasing risk for rainfall as Jose gets closer to our region.
Expecting high precipitable water values to continue, setting up the
possibility for locally heavy rainfall. The most likely areas for
heavy rainfall will be southeast MA and RI.

The NHC forecast for Jose continues to indicate Jose weakening
as its gets closer to southern New England. The forecast track's
closest approach is centered near 40N/70W during Wed morning,
which is consistent with much of the model guidance. However
there is still ample uncertainty on the exact track, as the 5
year average error of a hurricane track forecast 36 to 48 hours
in advance is about 50-75 nautical miles either side of the
forecast track. For example, Nantucket is only about 85 miles
north of the 40N/70W benchmark, well within the margin of error.

What does this all mean? There is still uncertainty on the
exact track of Jose, and a slight change in track has the
potential to make a big difference in winds and rainfall on
land. Stay tuned for further updates from NHC and NWS Taunton.

Likely to categorical pops continue through Tuesday night,
diminishing gradually during Wednesday. Lack of convection
around Jose's center this morning resulted in a more
conservative thunderstorm forecast for our region. Greatest risk
again across the Cape and islands.

Rainfall totals from WPC bring 3-5 inches of rainfall to the
far southeastern portion of our area, highest totals on the Cape
and Islands. This rainfall will have the potential to produce
substantial urban and poor drainage flooding. Rivers and streams
in southeast MA and RI are running predominantly below normal,
some on the low end of normal. So there is a degree of buffer on
area waterways. Can't rule out a small stream getting close to
bankfull if rainfall falls in short enough period of time.

Thursday thru Sunday...

Once Jose finally departs our region, we should receive a
period of more tranquil weather late this week into next
weekend. Can't completely rule out some lingering showers across
the Cape and Islands into Friday in southeastern portions of
the area, depending on the ultimate path of Jose, and how
quickly it moves east.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through tomorrow night/...

High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in timing.

Rest of today...
The slight improvement at area terminals (where there has been
improvement) will gradually give way once again to a round of
mainly IFR conditions this evening as CIGs once again descend
and fog develops.  Otherwise mainly E-NE winds 5-10 kt.

Tonight...
IFR/LIFR conditions in lowered CIGS and fog once again. Some
improvement in vsbys toward morning from S-N (mainly after 08Z)
as rain develops. Winds E-NW with gusts approaching 30 kt on the
islands by 12z

Tomorrow and tomorrow night...
Influence from Jose begins to be felt. Winds remain E-NE then
shift more to the N early Wed morning. Wind gusts increase to
40-50 kt during the overnight hours, slowly increasing during
the afternoon and evening, peaking mainly on the Cape/Islands,
but still 30-40 kt expected across interior RI/SE MA and E CT.
Rain/fog will lead to continued lower vsbys, mainly MVFR but IFR
also likely at times. Mainly IFR CIGS except across extreme W
MA, where some MVFR/VFR is possible at times.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends, lower confidence in
timing. Mainly IFR to occasional LIFR conditions through the
period, strongest E-NE winds pick up tomorrow afternoon.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday-Wednesday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR with areas of IFR in low clouds/rain/fog. Northeast winds
with potential for 35-40 kt speeds, gust around 60 kts possible
near KACK. Poor visibility on Cape and Islands in rain and fog.
Conditions are dependent on the track and speed of Hurricane
Jose. Some improvement possible from west to east Wednesday
afternoon.

Thursday and Friday...Moderate confidence.

MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys across the coastal plain of SE MA and RI.
Mainly VFR elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...High confidence

Today...Light easterly flow gradually increasing during the
day, but remaining below Small Craft advisory levels.
Increasing long period south swells will result in seas building
to 6 to 9 ft over the southern waters. Poor vsbys in areas of
dense fog at times. A few showers may develop this afternoon.

Tonight...E-NE winds will gradually increase during the night.
Gusts up to around 25 kt over southern waters by daybreak.
Swells will peak in the evening then transitioning to more wind
wave. Seas building to 10-15 ft outer southern waters. Poor
vsbys in fog. Increasing chances for rain.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...Moderate confidence.

**Tropical Storm Watch posted for much of the southern New
 England coastal waters**

Seas will continue to build Tuesday and Tuesday night in
advance of Jose. Tropical Storm Watch headlines have been posted
for much of the coastal waters, with the exceptions of Boston
Harbor and Mass Bay/Ipswich Bay. Please refer to the latest
Marine Weather Message /BOSMWWBOX/ for details.

Seas on the southern outer coastal waters could potentially
build to 15-25 feet, with seas 10-15 feet possible in RI/BI
Sounds. High seas will spread to the eastern coast of
Massachusetts, especially Outer Cape Cod Tuesday and Wednesday.
Seas will subside Wednesday night. Seas of 5 to 10 feet may
linger on the outer coastal waters during Thursday and Friday.

Final impacts will depend on the track of Jose, which still has
time to change over the next couple of days. Mariners are
strongly urged to monitor the latest forecasts regarding Jose.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Jose's large wind envelope will produce significant seas with a
large swell component moving onshore early to mid next week.
Significant wave action should occur on top of relatively high
astronomical high tides and a building surge. As a result, we
believe there is a high risk of moderate to severe beach erosion
over a prolonged period early next week. Multiple high tide
cycles of large swells breaking onshore continue to have us
concerned that we could experience a very serious beach erosion
event along portions of both our south and east facing ocean-
exposed shorelines next week.

In addition and dependent upon how close Jose gets to our
coast, there is also a risk for minor to moderate coastal
flooding along portions of the coast with probably southeast
and east facing shorelines most at risk.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Tropical Storm Warning for MAZ019>024.
RI...Tropical Storm Warning for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ230.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Doody/EVT
NEAR TERM...Belk/EVT
SHORT TERM...Doody/EVT
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Doody
MARINE...Belk/EVT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 18, 12:18 PM EDT, 4 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1218 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>018-026-RIZ001>005-191630-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
1218 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts and northern
Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hurricane Jose will bring high surf and dangerous rip currents to
some ocean-exposed beaches through much of this week. There is the
potential for significant erosion along ocean-exposed beaches early
to mid next week. There is also a risk for minor to moderate coastal
flooding if Jose passes close enough to southern New England.

Confidence is growing the center of Jose will pass southeast of
Nantucket sometime Wednesday. Even with this easterly ack, there is
a possibility of tropical storm force winds reaching portions of
Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, with the Cape and Islands
most at risk. If this should happen, then scattered power outages
would be possible given full foliage at this time of year. There
could also be areas of heavy downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ019>024-RIZ006>008-191630-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
1218 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeastern Massachusetts
and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.early

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ231>237-250-251-254>256-191630-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
1218 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tropical Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Tropical Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ230-191630-
Boston Harbor-
1218 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

The office that day

Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 18, 11:14 AM EDTTropical Storm WarningBOXBarnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth4 days
Sep 18, 11:32 AM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryBOX6 days
Sep 18, 4:22 PM EDTHigh Surf AdvisoryBOXBarnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk and 1 more11 days
Sep 18, 5:23 PM EDTDense Fog AdvisoryBOXBarnstable, Bristol, Essex, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk and 2 more12 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Massachusetts, 2017Every flash flood watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.