Areal Flood Warning 28, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1028 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Intensifying early season coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic
coast brings strong to damaging winds, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms and the potential for flash flooding late today
and tonight. Drier and cooler weather moves in behind the
weather system through midweek. A cold front may bring a few
showers late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Damaging winds across SNE this evening into tonight
 - Hurricane-force wind gusts possible along the coast, over waters
 - Heavy rainfall with localized flash flood threat into tonight
 - A few strong to potentially severe storms possible

1000 PM update...

Meso-Analysis Update...

Overall trend in the forecast remains on track thus will focus
on extreme near term information. Upper level trough continues
to go negative as classic cyclogenesis pattern appears on
latest water vapor imagery. Surface low still down off the coast
of NJ as of 1000 PM. Over the past hour the low has deepen 6 MB
and will continue this trend over the next few hours as it
moves northward. Surface response is the increase in winds gusts
as several sites are gusting with a few sites along the coast
of RI reporting 50-60 MPH. Expect the winds to continue to ramp-
up over the next few hours as pressure falls will continue as a
strong 925mb LLJ remains aloft.

The other focus for tonight is on the rainfall. So far have
issued 2 flood warnings as rainfall rates are beginning to
increase to 0.5-1 inch an hour. Also several streams are
beginning to rise across western MA/CT. QPF trends remain on
track, still anticipate east slope of the Berkshires to see the
highest amounts. Appears a banding signature is setting up from
coastal CT down south of Long Island towards buoy 44066. This
will result in another max across central CT and west/central
MA. Latest hi-res guidance shows a min towards the Cape and the
Islands, but if convection fires then may need to watch this
region.

So far no convection or lightning has occurred in the area.
However dry slot pushing into the Northeast with some convection
well on its tail end. Will have to see if the dry slot will
help trigger anything over the next 6 hours.

Again feel all headlines are on track for tonight's event and
will not make any changes.

*/ Discussion...

A dynamic, multi-faced storm system developing off the mid-Atlantic
coast, taking aim on the Northeast. Strong pressure falls of 2 mb/hr
off the Carolinas, the central low pressure center down to 994 mb
round which the anticyclonic branch of the warm moist conveyor belt
is undergoing ascension and convergent forcing lending to a steady
stream of moderate to heavy rain into the Hudson River Valley into W
New England. The pressure gradient tightening to the deepening low
and the isallobaric response in tandem, conveyor belt motions are
enhancing lending to increased areal coverage of rainfall as well as
increasing surface / low level winds. Gales being observed along the
coast while estimates of 70 to 80 mph are occurring with secondary
tropical circulations off the SE CONUS coast. Clashing airmasses
along the surface to low-level baroclinic zone observed via latest
2m temperatures, the main show is about to begin as the mid to upper
level disturbance, slowed by downstream blocking, begins to undergo
a negative tilt aloft obtaining greater cyclonic curvature round
which its attendant vortmax digs, promoting greater cyclogenesis.

Following near-term high-res guidance closely, namely the 3 km NAM
along with the HRRR. Anticipating secondary circulations presently
off the SE CONUS coast to retrograde back N/W beneath the main mid-
level disturbance, towards lower heights and strongest QG-forcing,
enhancing in the process beneath the stacking mid to upper level low
deepening N into Upstate NY. Taking on a warm-core, hybrid evolution
will see the crux of higher sub-tropical thetaE air surge into S New
England along with an attendant jet of 90-100 mph low-level winds
around H925. Along the leading edge of the surging dry slot rear of
the main mid-level disturbance, will likely see the development of
heavy rain cores, potentially isolated thunderstorms with some weak
elevated instability, that'll have the propensity of mixing down
through precipitation drag the aforementioned low-level jet, despite
a weak near-surface inversion in an overall conditionally unstable
profile saturated throughout the column with precipitable waters
near 2-inches.

Especially fixed on midnight and shortly after when we could see a
period of very heavy rain with the strongest winds, hurricane force
over the waters and along the coast, in association with storms
along the leading edge of the dry slot which are likely to have some
rotation given the strong 0-1 / 0-3 km shear and helicity.

Otherwise a moderate to heavy rain event throughout that has the
potential to yield flash flooding with strong to damaging SE winds
through early Monday morning that will likely result in widespread
tree damage and scattered to numerous power outages. Greatest impact
along the coastline where also there is the possibility of splash-
over from wave action and impacts to vulnerable shoreline roads.

More details in the threat and impact specifics below. As stated
earlier, can not underestimate the power of this storm. Simply put,
expect the unexpected.

*/ Threat and Impact Specifics...

DAMAGING WINDS...

Advertising 50-60 mph SE gusts across the interior, 60 to 70 for the
coastal plain and coastline, with the possibility of 70+ mph gusts
along the immediate coast and across the islands (hurricane-force).

Anticipating widespread tree damage lending to scattered to numerous
power outages, likely some structural damage occurring. Keeping in
mind fully leafed trees.

Again combination of lapse rates and precipitation drag contributing
to winds mixing down to the surface. Greatest concern is around the
midnight and shortly after timeframe. HIGH WIND WARNING continues.

INTERIOR FLOODING...

Forecasting a 2-4 inch event, locally higher amounts. FLASH FLOOD
WATCH continues with the expected threats of urban / poor drainage
flooding and the potential swell of small streams and tributaries,
already saturated from recent rains up to 5-inches earlier in the
week. Also to consider leaf clogged drains.

Threat across all of S New England. While there is greater concern
along the E-slopes of high terrain, and within urban centers, flash
flooding is possible everywhere.

While a moderate to heavy rain is forecast into the evening, the
heaviest rain is anticipated around midnight and shortly after.
Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches in a very short period of time are
possible, less than an hour.

Focus on a strong convergently-forcing cyclonic turning, trowaling
punch of the warm-moist conveyor belt of sub-tropical air with again
precipitable waters up to 2 inches. High freezing level heights (+12
kft agl), a saturated column throughout, resulting in efficient,
warm-rain processes.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...

Storm cells with heavy rain, lightning, and possible rotation are
forecast to occur along the leading edge of the SW rearward dry slot
collocated with strongest inflow of sub-tropical high thetaE air.

Strong 0-1 km shear and helicity in an environment of some weak
elevated instability, there is potential for heightened impacts in the
form of very heavy rain, near or above hurricane force winds, and
a possible brief tornadic spin-up. SPC has us in a MARGINAL threat.

Impacts occurring around midnight and shortly after, threats over
all of S New England with particular focus along the S coast with
storm cells coming onshore. Short fused headlines may be needed.

COASTAL FLOODING...

Anticipating splashover, especially along Atlantic-facing beaches
given 10-15 foot wave action, with impacts to vulnerable shoreline
roads. Particular focus on the 4 am high tide along the S RI and S
MA coastline. Additional surge of 1 to 3 feet but astronomical high
tide at this time will be low in comparison to average.

To address the potential threat, we have issued a COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT.

MARINE IMPACTS...

Wave heights building up around 25 feet on the outer waters. Greater
concerning for the midnight and shortly after timeframe for a brief
period of hurricane-force wind gusts. Where such gusts will be pro-
longed, a HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING has been issued. Otherwise
all other waters remain at STORM WARNINGS with average gusts over
the period around 50 to 60 kts, southeasterly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Another round of strong to damaging wind gusts during the day

*/ Discussion...

Strong to damaging W winds expected behind the low given +3-4 mb/hr
pressure rises. The isallobaric response, W gusts up to 60 mph are
possible in an environment of steepening lapse rates of 8-9 C/km,
especially over the warmer waters along the immediate coast. Boundary
layer mixing dominating allowing the easy mix-down of faster momentum
for especially the early-half of Monday as cold air advection proceeds.
Will likely have to adjust wind headlines for both land and water.

Comma head low deepening over Upstate NY as it goes through occlusion,
moisture trowaling on the backside, likely to see some wet-weather
activity across N/W portions of S New England. Will see wet weather
threat diminish along with the winds late in the day as drier air
and high pressure begin to push into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights...

 * Frost likely Tuesday night
 * Seasonable and dry Tuesday and Wednesday
 * Showers possible Thursday and Friday

Overview and model preferences...
After a long period where S stream flow dominated (particularly
in the form of subtropical ridging), this week will be
dominated by the N stream as deep longwave trof remains
entrenched across the E half of Canada. Still the flow is
relatively zonal, as the NE remains generally in the W flow in
the base of this trof, especially as the subtropical ridge
regains strength toward the end of the week. Therefore, a break
from the highly-amplified strong low pres systems of the last
several days can be expected, along with more seasonable
conditions. Models are in generally fair agreement, so a blend
of guidance will be used as a baseline.

Details...

Mon night into Wed...
Dry WX as 1030+ hPa high pres builds across New England through
the period. Winds gradually diminish Mon night, such that, with
clearing some radiational cooling is likely by the early
morning hours. This will allow mins to drop into the upper 30s
and low-mid 40s. Highs Tue near normal (mid to upper 50s) as H92
temps drop to about +3C on Tue and +4C on Wed (mid 50s to low
60s). Tue night, could be one of the colder days thus far this
fall, thanks to a good setup for radiational cooling and a cool
airmass in place. Several spots could dip below freezing in the
normal sheltered interior valleys. Frost could bring an end to
the growing season in places where it has not ended already.

Thu and Fri...
A weak open wave will approach along with a slight increase in
PWATs to about 1.25 inches (nearly 2 std deviations above
normal). However, the wave will encounter nearly confluent flow
across the NE allowing it to maintain its open status.
Therefore, overall lift much weaker than the storms today and a
few days ago. Will highlight chance POPs mainly for a few
occasional SHRA Thu and Fri as a cold front tied to the parent
low shifting into Quebec slides through the region. Overall
rainfall totals will be light, generally a quarter inch or less
at most locations. Slight warming as the subtropical ridge
shifts further W, highs mainly in the 60s each day along with
milder nights thanks to increased cloud cover.

Next weekend...
A slight increase in the strength of ridging to the S looks to
reinforce the N stream ridge following the late week wave
passage. There is some uncertainty here, given that the wave is
not well sampled at this time. However, am noting enough
ensembles and even operational models (ECMWF/CMC in particular)
that suggest another strong high pres in control for the
weekend. Will trend forecast toward this thinking.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...

Overnight...Moderate confidence.
E-SE Winds gradually build 00Z - 04Z from S-N as an area of +RA
with occasional embedded TSRA moves across the region. Wind
gusts 35-50 kt possible at times mainly across the interior with
gusts 40-60 kt expected mainly E MA/RI, especially along the
coastline. LLWS 50-70 kt likely from 2000ft.

Otherwise, mainly MVFR CIGS and MVFR/IFR vsbys as RA/+RA moves
through. Dip in winds mainly after 09Z before picking up out of
the SW a couple hours after sunrise.

Tonight into Monday...
Winds turning W, quickly improving to VFR. W winds sustained 20
to 30 with gusts up to 50 kts, especially closer to the coast,
will diminish late by evening.

KBOS Terminal...
RA moving into the terminal, will go downhill quickly into this
evening. Strongest winds occurring shortly after midnight. Will
begin to improve around the Monday AM push but expect winds to
quickly shift E and remain blustery.

KBDL Terminal...
IFR prevailing here on as SE winds increase. Strongest winds
forecast around midnight. Have to monitor for TSRA threats at
this time, potential enhancement of impacts. Will see improvement
towards the Monday AM push but anticipate winds to quickly revert
W.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...High confidence.

Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA and patchy BR.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA, patchy BR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS issued for the E waters, while
STORM FORCE for all others. An important point, even though
STORM FORCE, there will be a brief period of winds getting to
Hurricane force around midnight or shortly thereafter.

Seas building over 20 feet on the outer waters, will see the SE
winds conclude into Monday morning behind which they will
quickly revert W and remain blustery with gusts up to 50 kts
forecast.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...Moderate confidence.

Monday Night: Low risk for small craft advisory level winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for CTZ002>004.
     Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for CTZ002>004.
MA...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for MAZ002>024-026.
     Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for MAZ002>024-026.
RI...High Wind Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for RIZ001>008.
     Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ232>234-255-256.
     Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ230.
     Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ231-251.
     Storm Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for ANZ236.
     Storm Warning until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237.
     Hurricane Force Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ250.
     Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Doody/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Dunten/Sipprell
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...Doody
AVIATION...Doody/Sipprell
MARINE...Doody/Sipprell

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1029 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Nayatt            41.72N  71.34W
10/29/2017  M63 mph          ANZ236             RI   Marine Mesonet

&&

Event Number BOX1706828

AED

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1046 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Wethersfield            41.70N  72.67W
10/29/2017                   Hartford           CT   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON DESMOND ROAD

0747 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Marion                  41.70N  70.76W
10/29/2017                   Plymouth           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON POINT ROAD

0835 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Coventry                41.68N  71.65W
10/29/2017                   Kent               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Power lines down and pole fire

0839 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Saugus                  42.47N  71.02W
10/29/2017                   Essex              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree and power lines down on Golden Hills Road striking
            two houses

0841 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg South Kingstown         41.43N  71.55W
10/29/2017                   Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree limb down on high tension wires

0856 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Sandwich                41.76N  70.50W
10/29/2017                   Barnstable         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down blocking half of Old Main Street

0900 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Falmouth                41.55N  70.61W
10/29/2017                   Barnstable         MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Large branch down on Brick kiln Road

0905 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Marion                  41.70N  70.76W
10/29/2017                   Plymouth           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down on Wareham Road Route 6

0914 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Richmond                41.50N  71.63W
10/29/2017                   Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Power lines down on New London Turnpike

0916 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Exeter                  41.57N  71.68W
10/29/2017                   Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree and wires down on Yawgoo Valley Road

0916 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Westerly                41.37N  71.81W
10/29/2017                   Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Wires down on Granite Street

0923 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Dracut                  42.67N  71.30W
10/29/2017                   Middlesex          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down blocking Methuen Road

0930 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Rutland                 42.36N  71.95W
10/29/2017                   Worcester          MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down on Route 20 east of Richardson Corner

0939 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Plymouth                41.96N  70.68W
10/29/2017                   Plymouth           MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Large tree down blocking Forrest Avenue

0945 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg New Bedford             41.66N  70.94W
10/29/2017                   Bristol            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Very large tree and wires down on Summer Street

0946 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Charlestown             41.38N  71.65W
10/29/2017  M59 mph          Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

0951 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Exeter                  41.57N  71.68W
10/29/2017                   Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree and wires down on Mail Road

0953 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Westerly                41.37N  71.81W
10/29/2017  M67 mph          Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Sustained wind 49 MPH

0954 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Nayatt            41.72N  71.34W
10/29/2017  M63 mph          ANZ236             RI   MARINE MESONET

0955 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Coventry                41.68N  71.65W
10/29/2017                   Kent               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree and wires down

0957 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Swansea                 41.75N  71.18W
10/29/2017                   Bristol            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down on Barton road by Winslow Road blocking road

1000 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Oak Bluffs              41.45N  70.57W
10/29/2017                   Dukes              MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down on car on Wamsutta Avenue

1002 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Coventry                41.68N  71.65W
10/29/2017                   Kent               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            numerous trees down on plainfield Pike and Harkney Hill
            Road

1003 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg West Greenwich          41.63N  71.65W
10/29/2017                   Kent               RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Multiple reports of trees and wires down

1017 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Providence              41.82N  71.42W
10/29/2017                   Providence         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Large branch and wires down

1021 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Freetown                41.82N  71.05W
10/29/2017                   Bristol            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down blocking Huron Avenue

1035 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Foster                  41.85N  71.77W
10/29/2017  M53 mph          Providence         RI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO OP Observer

1039 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Richmond                41.50N  71.63W
10/29/2017                   Washington         RI   AMATEUR RADIO

            Trees and wires down at multiple lcations

1041 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Westport                41.67N  71.10W
10/29/2017                   Bristol            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down blocking Main Road

1042 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Rehoboth                41.83N  71.27W
10/29/2017                   Bristol            MA   AMATEUR RADIO

            Tree down on Homestead Road by Rocky Hill Road

&&

EVENT NUMBER BOX1706808 BOX1706807 BOX1706809 BOX1706811 BOX1706810
BOX1706812 BOX1706813 BOX1706814 BOX1706815 BOX1706816 BOX1706817
BOX1706818 BOX1706829 BOX1706821 BOX1706822 BOX1706820 BOX1706823
BOX1706819 BOX1706828 BOX1706824 BOX1706825 BOX1706830 BOX1706826
BOX1706827 BOX1706831 BOX1706832 BOX1706834 BOX1706833 BOX1706835
BOX1706836

AED