Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Boise, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
230 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...As of 2:00 MDT,
convection has initiated in southeast Oregon associated with a
shortwave currently located in southwest Oregon and moving
east/northeast. Surface heating and moisture transport ahead of
the shortwave are aiding in thunderstorms. Most models are showing
convection continuing to progress eastward through the evening
hours, and the forecast matches this solution. The inverted-V
profile for the afternoon and evening hours suggests downdraft
gusty winds up to 50 mph are possible near the stronger storms.
Overnight tonight, the surface cold front, then upper level axis
will pass overhead and shift the convection to the north and
east, leaving chances for thunderstorms only in the Idaho Central
Mountains for Tuesday. Where most valley locations will be
approaching 100F this afternoon, high temperatures tomorrow are
expected to be 10-15 degrees cooler than today. By Wednesday, a
drier northwest flow will set up under a broader trough pattern,
keeping temperatures near normal, but conditions dry.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Monday...The upper level
trough begins to exit the region Wednesday night into Thursday
making way for an upper level ridge to begin building over the
Pacific Northwest. Temperatures begin to climb back above normal by
the weekend. A disturbance in the flow pushes through Saturday night
which will give the West Central Mountains a slight chance of some
afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Models are in disagreement after
this with the ECMWF wanting to keep zonal flow in the region while
the GFS begins to build in another ridge. Kept the forecast dry
after Saturday night for now because of these differences.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Increase in mid-upper level moisture throughout the
rest of today. Thunderstorms have already developed in SE Oregon and
will continue through late evening. Strong outflow winds are
possible with these storms. Thunderstorms in SE Idaho are possible
late this evening. Surface winds, variable 10-20 kts with gusts 25-
35 kts in and around thunderstorms. Winds aloft to 10k feet MSL,
south-southwest thru 00z 10-25kts then westerly 15-30 kts.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

SHORT TERM...EP
LONG TERM....JC/JC
AVIATION.....JC

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