Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
632 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Currently watching several different weather features that will
continue to contribute to the overall forecast for the rest of the
afternoon and into the evening hours. On a more widespread scale
we have southerly flow in place as a warm front has lifted north
of the area this afternoon. Further west we have an outflow
boundary approaching I-55 in MS that is left over from the complex
in the Plains this morning. On more of the mesoscale layout, one
can see a leftover MCV or mesolow spinning in northwest AL this
afternoon. This has kept the storms a little bit stronger nearest
to the circulation and also formed a small line of showers and
storms linearly to the southwest. Several spokes are evident from
this meso low and bands of showers and storms have developed
across the area. There are also several outflow boundaries from
storms southeast of us that are moving northward into the
southeast where temperatures have reached 90 degrees, so look for
additional development here. Activity continues to move fairly
rapid this afternoon, so flooding is not a concern today or
tonight. Most of the activity will slide north and east this
evening and then activity will be more focused in the northwest
closer to the outflow boundary as in moves into the area.

16

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday.

A prolonged period of above normal rain chances is expected each
and every day of the day 2-8 period. Models are in good agreement
and indicate the southern edge mid-level westerlies will persist
over the Deep South with a broad trough east of the Rockies. This
will favor a zone of enhanced moisture over Alabama as a weak
west-east thermal gradient becomes established near the I-40
corridor. Embedded small-scale disturbances may enhance convection
on any given day, and the potential for isolated flash flooding
could gradually increase through the week ahead.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

A very moist air mass across central Alabama with an active
southwest flow aloft. The shower and thunderstorm activity will
diminish early in the period for areas along and south of I-20.
Low level convergence across northern Mississippi ahead a surface
front will increase across northwest Alabama during the overnight
period, and sct to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue for areas north of I-20 thru the period. The I-20
corridor will be on the southern fringe of the convective activity
thru 12z, so kept VCSH for each site. Southerly winds overnight
at 5-10 knots should hinder fog formation, but low clouds will
likely develop area wide with 1000-2000 ft cigs at northern TAF
sites and cigs blo 1000 ft agl at KMGM amd KTOI between 08z and
14z. Cigs will rise after 14z with VFR cigs by 17z. Shower and
tstm activity could increase across northern TAF sites after 17z
as the surface front pushes into northwest Alabama.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Above normal rain chances are expected through the forecast
period. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  85  70  82  69 /  60  80  70  70  50
Anniston    73  86  71  83  71 /  50  70  60  70  50
Birmingham  75  87  73  84  71 /  40  70  60  70  50
Tuscaloosa  75  90  73  86  72 /  40  70  60  70  50
Calera      74  87  72  85  71 /  40  60  60  70  50
Auburn      72  86  72  86  71 /  40  60  40  60  40
Montgomery  75  90  74  90  73 /  30  60  40  60  40
Troy        73  88  72  90  72 /  30  60  30  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-071300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

ALZ033-040-070230-
Dallas AL-Perry AL-
855 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Potter Station, or 9 miles west of Valley Grande, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Selma, Valley Grande, Paul M Grist State Park, Potter Station, Valley
Creek Junction, Plantersville, Suttle, Barrett Creek and Summerfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3241 8727 3248 8730 3273 8702 3266 8702
      3266 8692 3257 8690 3254 8691 3251 8689
      3236 8720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 231DEG 33KT 3251 8714

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

ALZ035-070245-
Chilton AL-
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHILTON COUNTY UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

At 919 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paul M Grist State Park, or 11 miles north of Valley Grande, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Maplesville, Parnell and Stanton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 8702 3284 8702 3284 8680 3266 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 232DEG 30KT 3267 8705

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
949 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

ALZ034-035-070315-
Chilton AL-Bibb AL-
949 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHILTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 949 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chilton County Motor Sports Park, or 9 miles southwest of Jemison,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Calera, Jemison, Thorsby, Lawley, Chilton County Motor Sports Park,
Randolph, Minooka Park and Campbell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3286 8698 3307 8682 3307 8667 3296 8661
      3281 8688
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 225DEG 29KT 3287 8686

89^GSatterwhite