Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
621 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
This afternoon into Thursday.

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is spread across the
south and east counties of Central Alabama this afternoon in a
typical diurnally influenced summertime regime. This activity is
continuing to propagate slowly to the north as the afternoon
progresses while individual cells are short lived overall.
Precipitable water remains high, with lower to middle 70s for dew
points and not much relief with the heat except for the lucky ones
who get showers/outflow boundaries. Guidance has trended a degree
or so lower with highs in the south for Thursday thanks to a
continuing trend of afternoon convection activity. Thus, we are
not quite reaching heat advisory criteria for Thursday as of now.
Will hold off issuing a heat advisory at this time, but will leave
a low confidence 1 in the HWO for now.

08

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

Previous discussion from 349 AM CDT.

Over the next couple days, the upper level ridge remains in place,
strengthening slightly, as thickness values also increase each
day. Daytime highs will run in the low 90s, and will continue to
go slightly above guidance. With dewpoints in the low to mid 70s,
heat index values will peak above 100F each day through Friday.
High moisture availability will lead to cloud and shower/storm
development each day, which will curb some warming, especially by
early afternoon. This will prevent heat index values from meeting
advisory criteria, but will continue to mention in the HWO.

A trough will amplify over the Mid Mississippi Valley Friday and
slowing slide southeastward over the weekend into the area. This
will provide a better focus for mainly diurnally driven scattered
showers and storms each day through early next week, and keep
temperatures a few degrees cooler.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

With the exception of reduced vsbys associated with diurnal
tstms, VFR conds will prevail. Isolated tstms will linger thru 01z
this evening, possibly impacting KTCL and KTOI. Light fog
possible at KTOI between 09z and 12z, but otherwise no non-
convective cig or vsbys issues. Sct tstms will develop after 17z
and handled with PROB30 groups.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered summertime showers and thunderstorms are
expected for the remainder of this afternoon, again for Thursday
afternoon, and for much of this week. There are no fire weather
concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  90  73  91  72 /  20  30  20  40  20
Anniston    72  90  73  91  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
Birmingham  74  91  74  92  75 /  20  30  20  40  20
Tuscaloosa  74  92  75  93  75 /  20  30  20  40  20
Calera      73  91  74  92  75 /  20  30  20  40  20
Auburn      73  92  74  92  74 /  20  30  20  30  20
Montgomery  74  94  75  95  75 /  20  30  20  30  20
Troy        72  93  73  94  74 /  20  20  20  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
456 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-131300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
456 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

With temperatures forecast to reach the middle 90s Thursday through
Saturday afternoons, heat indices could reach 105 degrees in areas
near and south of the I-20 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
713 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ALZ046-049-050-130100-
Pike AL-Bullock AL-Barbour AL-
713 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIKE...SOUTHERN
BULLOCK AND WEST CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Clayton to near Boot Hill. Movement was
north at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Midway, Clayton, Louisville, Pickett, Boot Hill, Beans Crossroads,
Aberfoil, Tanyard, Clayton Municipal Airport, Perote, Josie and Mount
Andrew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8552 3202 8587 3175 8569 3180 8545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 164DEG 9KT 3190 8550 3186 8571

89^GSatterwhite