Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1231 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight.

Confidence is increasing now that showers and thunderstorms will
begin to impact the area more tonight than this afternoon, so have
removed the severe potential for this afternoon but added it in
for tonight through the overnight hours as the next system moves
into the region. Again activity will develop north and west of the
area so to what extent will it hold together will determine the
extent of the strong to to isolated severe storms. The HRRR has
been hinting at this for several hourly runs and now the ARW is on
board with the activity. Still some uncertainties with the
activity as it will be outflow driven. As for the models the HRRR
does have the best handle on current activity and again has for
several runs now, so will adjust the forecast to closely represent
the HRRR.

16

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

The forecast for Sunday will largely hinge on the MCS expected to
approach the area from the northwest late tonight. General
consensus from the latest CAMs is that a chance of isolated to
scattered showers and storms will linger for a couple hours past
12Z as an outflow boundary moves in. These would likely be in a
weakened state due to the time of day and the continued presence
of strong mid-level capping over the area associated with a strong
EML. This outflow boundary would need to be watched for additional
re-development of showers and storms later in the day, but latest
guidance suggests it will retreat north of the forecast area by
afternoon. This would leave the forecast area in a capped air
mass with a lack of forcing to break the cap during the afternoon,
as 700 mb temperatures will remain around +10-11C with dry air
also present at mid-levels and the front well off to the west. For
the late afternoon, will leave just a slight chances of an
isolated shower/storm across the northern half of Central Alabama.
If a storm develops in the afternoon, it would likely be strong
to severe with hail/wind given high CAPE, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and 35-45 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. But, confidence in
development is too low to include in the HWO at this time.

Greater chances of showers and storms will come after sunset
Sunday night, more likely some time after the 10pm-midnight
timeframe. A decelerating cold front will move in from the
northwest, extending southwestward from low pressure over the
Great Lakes. Weak height falls will occur as the trough over the
north-central US causes the Gulf ridge to be suppressed eastward,
and the forecast area will begin to feel the influence of the
right entrance region of a jet streak over the Ohio Valley.  This
upper-level forcing will result in cooling at 700 mb and allow
the cap to weaken. Will keep an eye on this late Sunday night
period for any strong to severe threat given the instability still
present, but time of day will not be particularly favorable and
bulk shear somewhat marginal.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for Memorial Day
in the southwest to northeast oriented moisture axis along and
south of the front which will have stalled. These will be aided by
weak shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft to the south of the
strong upper low over the Great Lakes. Strong storms will continue
to be possible, and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.
0-6 km bulk shear values will be marginal at 25-35 kts, mid-
level lapse rates will be weakening, and profiles will be
fairly saturated. Ongoing precipitation may also hamper
destabilization. Therefore, chances of an organized threat are too
low to mention in the HWO at this time.

The forecast area will remain in the moisture axis south of the
old front Tuesday and Wednesday with continued cyclonic upper-
level flow south of the upper low lifting into Ontario. Scattered
showers and storms will continue across the area, with the best
chances around peak heating. For the rest of the week, the upper
low will continue to lift northeastward while ridging develops
over the Plains. A few southern stream waves will try to under-cut
the ridge. A warm and humid air mass will remain in place over
Central Alabama, with continued summertime afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

There will be two primary aviation weather concerns in the short
term. A line of intense thunderstorms with strong winds will move
across north central Alabama through 10z. The strongest part of
the convective line was currently over northern Mississippi and
will track across the northern half of Alabama during the
overnight hours. Wind gusts up to 50 knots are possible along the
leading edge of the line. The other area of concern is an area of
low cigs along the Gulf Coast spreading rapidly northward. The
cigs have bases arnd 1500 feet agl and will spread into KMGM and
KTOI by 08z. The convective line to the north may reach the
northern TAF sites before the low cigs can spread this far north.
Conds should improve after 15z as an upper level inversion spreads
back over the area during the day Sunday and limits convective
activity.

58/rose

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few showers and storms will be possible across the north through
Sunday, but most areas will remain warm and dry. The best rain
chances hold off until Sunday night into Monday when the next
upper level system and surface front approach. Critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  69  81  65  80 /  40  60  60  40  50
Anniston    87  69  83  66  79 /  30  50  60  40  60
Birmingham  88  71  83  68  80 /  40  60  60  50  60
Tuscaloosa  89  71  84  67  82 /  30  60  70  50  60
Calera      88  71  83  67  80 /  20  60  70  50  60
Auburn      87  71  84  68  81 /  10  30  60  30  40
Montgomery  90  73  87  68  83 /  10  30  60  40  50
Troy        90  71  86  67  84 /  10  20  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
311 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-291115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
311 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Damaging straight line winds are possible through 10 am this morning,
mainly east of I-65 and north of I-85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will
be needed through Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
155 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMILTON                34.14N 87.98W
05/28/2017                   MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AROUND
            HAMILTON.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
159 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W HACKLEBURG          34.27N 87.85W
05/28/2017                   MARION             AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            METAL OUTBUILDING BLOW DOWN AND ACROSS CR
            345. SAME AREA AS MOBILE HOME DAMAGE
            PREVIOUSLY REPORTED.

&&

HA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
213 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

ALZ022-023-280830-
Pickens AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
213 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUSCALOOSA AND PICKENS COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 212 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty winds along an
outflow boundary extending from near Jasper to near Belk to near
Steens. Movement was south at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible ahead of a line of
showers and thunderstorms. These could bring down large branches and
weak trees.

Locations impacted include...
Tuscaloosa, Northport, Aliceville, Gordo, Reform, Carrollton,
Pickensville, Holt, Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Coker,
Ethelsville, McMullen, Samantha, McFarland Mall, Benevola, Johnston
Lake and Lake Lurleen State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Birmingham.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8827 3352 8768 3361 8763 3360 8737
      3359 8732 3352 8732 3351 8726 3346 8734
      3331 8716 3328 8707 3322 8710 3324 8714
      3319 8720 3313 8720 3313 8728 3301 8732
      3302 8783 3315 8784 3304 8804 3299 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 355DEG 35KT 3391 8733 3363 8788 3358 8824

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
309 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

ALZ020-280900-
Cherokee AL-
309 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 400 AM
CDT...

At 309 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northeast of Little River Falls to
near Slackland. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Centre, Cedar Bluff, Little River Canyon National Preserve, Forney,
Centre Municipal Airport, Leesburg, Sand Rock, Gaylesville, Tennala,
Cherokee Rock Village, Pleasant Gap, Cornwall Furnace Park, Blanche,
Little River Falls, Slackland, Weiss Lake, Moshat, Ball Flat, Coloma
and Weiss Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 8540 3396 8549 3394 8550 3394 8553
      3396 8554 3397 8574 3410 8580 3412 8579
      3413 8580 3411 8584 3424 8584 3424 8581
      3426 8581 3426 8577 3436 8566 3437 8563
      3440 8563 3444 8558 3449 8557 3453 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0809Z 280DEG 33KT 3453 8555 3413 8589

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
334 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

ALZ025>027-280930-
Shelby AL-Talladega AL-St. Clair AL-
334 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALLADEGA...NORTHEASTERN SHELBY
AND SOUTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

At 334 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Vestavia Hills to near Honda Manufacturing Of
Alabama. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Winds of 40 to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Hoover, Pelham, Oxford, Talladega, Sylacauga, Pell City,
Leeds, Moody, Chelsea, Childersburg, Wilsonville, Lincoln, Indian
Springs Village, Riverside, Vincent, Harpersville, Munford, Westover
and Waldo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 8582 3350 8590 3340 8592 3338 8598
      3330 8598 3329 8612 3319 8612 3320 8617
      3310 8618 3310 8625 3337 8679 3347 8667
      3347 8661 3352 8652 3357 8652 3355 8620
      3369 8619 3367 8605 3359 8599 3358 8580
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 294DEG 36KT 3344 8681 3366 8605

32/Davis

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