Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
324 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today through Wednesday.

A QLCS is beginning to become more organized across southern
Mississippi this morning, but the warm sector across Alabama is
contaminated with showers and thunderstorms. The effects of
evaporational cooling and cold pooling have created an effective
warm front that will limit the northward extent of the severe
weather risk associated with the QLCS as it moves across the
southern half of the area this morning. The overall threat is also
tempered by mid-level flow that is nearly parallel to the QLCS,
which is not particularly favorable for bowing segments and fast
forward progression. The best chance of damaging winds and brief
tornadoes should remain along and south of Interstate 85. Isolated
damaging winds cannot be totally ruled out farther north.

The associated cold front with the today's system will become
diffuse across the northern Gulf Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough moves into the Plains. As the warm front moves inland,
elevated supercell thunderstorms appear likely Wednesday morning
with a potential for large hail and damaging winds. If any storms
become surface based during the morning, tornadoes would also be
possible. The evolution of this activity and additional convection
during the late morning/early afternoon remains in question and will
impact the nature of the severe weather threat for the afternoon and
evening. Several models are quite aggressive with warm sector
development through 18z Wednesday, which would cause the strongest
low-level shear to become displaced across our South and East. I am
not sold on this idea as of now for two reasons. An elevated mixed
layer should be present, which argues for limited thunderstorm
development. Also, the surface low should be well to our north
across the Ohio Valley at 18z Wednesday along with the synoptic warm
front. Arguing in favor of a contaminated warm sector is the
presence of a subtropical jet streak, but is not particularly
impressive. If the warm sector remains more free of convection, a
more substantial area-wide risk would develop. With all of that
said, the highest confidence in supercell storms capable of
producing long-track tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds is
currently along and east of a line from Selma to Anniston. This
threat could expand westward with time and will hinge on early day
warm sector development.

87/Grantham

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Sunday.

Thursday through Sunday will be a fairly benign timeframe with
high pressure taking control and bringing in some chilly air for
this time of the year. Low temperatures on Friday and Saturday
morning will be in the low 40s for most of the area, with a few
upper 30s in the northeast and normally cooler spots. Some areas
in the northeast may even drop into the mid 30s with a possible
frosty start. This will continue to be monitored over the next
several days and more details will be forthcoming but once this
severe weather threat is over, you may want to make plans for
outdoor vegetation and plants for the weekend. There will be a
warming trend beginning Saturday afternoon that will continue into
Sunday and Monday. The next chance of rain will be Monday morning
with the next storm system, but there is still some timing issues
with this system so expect many changes over the next few days.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Large area of rain and thunderstorms has (as of 0445z) pushed
into the western portion of central Alabama, already affecting
TCL, and soon to reach BHM and EET. 06z set of TAFs will need to
significantly speed up the arrival, and/or lengthen the duration,
of the lowered visibility and lower ceilings associated with this
convection. With the computer models having such a hard time with
the eastward progression with this system, forecast confidence in
lower than usual (especially the farther east and south you go,
since the rain is yet to arrive there).

Everything is ultimately forecast to sweep out of here, and move
off to the east, by 18z or so on Monday. We shall see. Subsidence
in behind the large convective complex should result in clearing
skies and VFR conditions once the rain does move out.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread showers and storms through the early afternoon today.
This will be a heavy rain producer and will make most of the fuels
fairly wet. Tuesday will see a brief return to drier conditions
before another system brings rain and storms to the area on
Wednesday. Dry again on Thursday and it will remain that way
through the weekend. Critical fire weather conditions are not
expected through the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  56  82  57  79 / 100  30  10  30  70
Anniston    73  57  82  59  78 / 100  30  10  40  70
Birmingham  77  58  84  61  80 / 100  20   0  40  70
Tuscaloosa  77  57  84  60  81 / 100  10   0  40  60
Calera      76  58  84  61  81 / 100  10   0  40  70
Auburn      76  59  82  63  76 / 100  30   0  40  80
Montgomery  77  60  86  63  81 / 100  10   0  50  80
Troy        75  60  85  63  78 / 100  20   0  50  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
344 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-041145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
344 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook Through Tonight.

There is a threat of severe thunderstorms across the southern half of
central Alabama through 1 PM, generally along and south of a line
from Geiger, to Centreville, to Lafayette. The threats include
damaging straight line winds up to 60 mph and a brief tornado.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is also a threat of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and
Wednesday evening. The threats include damaging straight line winds,
large hail, and tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and Emergency Managers may be needed
Today and again on Wednesday.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
758 AM CDT MON APR 3 2017

ALZ026>028-036-037-043-044-031415-
Tallapoosa AL-Montgomery AL-Clay AL-Talladega AL-Coosa AL-
St. Clair AL-Elmore AL-
758 AM CDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALLADEGA...ELMORE...SOUTHEASTERN
ST. CLAIR...TALLAPOOSA...MONTGOMERY...COOSA AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL
915 AM CDT...

At 757 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Munford to Crewsville to near Bob Woodruff
Lake to Hope Hull. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Montgomery, Prattville, Anniston, Oxford, Talladega, Alexander City,
Millbrook, Sylacauga, Pell City, Wetumpka, Childersburg, Tallassee,
Dadeville, Lineville, Ashland, Goodwater, Camp Hill, Rockford,
Kellyton and Talladega Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8650 3275 8638 3306 8652 3335 8634
      3350 8638 3350 8643 3362 8617 3370 8619
      3358 8580 3350 8588 3349 8585 3347 8589
      3347 8588 3349 8564 3273 8559 3249 8580
      3242 8602 3228 8592 3197 8600 3196 8630
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 253DEG 26KT 3356 8600 3294 8617 3250 8624 3226
8635

17/KLAWS