Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Birmingham, AL

408 
WWUS54 KBMX 012017
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
217 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

ALC057-075-012045-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170301T2045Z/
Fayette AL-Lamar AL-
217 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES...

At 217 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Belk, or near
Fayette, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Vernon, Berry, Belk, Bankston, Blooming Grove, Bluff, Cody,
Richard Arthur Field, Bevill State College Fayette, Hubbertville,
Fowlers Crossroads and Hightogy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for west central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3363 8812 3378 8814 3389 8764 3387 8763
      3387 8753 3369 8753 3369 8742 3368 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 259DEG 50KT 3371 8793 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

462 
WWUS54 KBMX 012023
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
223 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

ALC075-012032-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170301T2045Z/
Lamar AL-
223 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for west central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3385 8781 3389 8765 3387 8763 3387 8753
      3369 8753 3369 8742 3368 8743 3364 8795
      3372 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 263DEG 50KT 3383 8778 3367 8796 

$$

ALC057-012045-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170301T2045Z/
Fayette AL-
223 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

At 222 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of Glen Allen to near Belk, moving east
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Berry, Belk, Bankston, Bevill State College Fayette,
Hubbertville, Fowlers Crossroads and Richard Arthur Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for west central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3385 8781 3389 8765 3387 8763 3387 8753
      3369 8753 3369 8742 3368 8743 3364 8795
      3372 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 263DEG 50KT 3383 8778 3367 8796 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

597 
WWUS54 KBMX 012035
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
235 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

ALC057-012045-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-170301T2045Z/
Fayette AL-
235 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY...

At 235 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Kansas to near Fayette, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Berry, Belk, Bankston, Bevill State College Fayette,
Hubbertville, Fowlers Crossroads and Richard Arthur Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for west central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3385 8781 3389 8765 3387 8763 3387 8753
      3369 8753 3369 8742 3368 8743 3364 8795
      3372 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 260DEG 53KT 3385 8759 3369 8777 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1131 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

A surface low currently over southern Wisconsin lifts northeastward
through the Great Lakes through the day. At 3am, the associated cold
front is draped through central Missouri southwestward into northern
Texas. This cold front will move into Central AL this afternoon,
sparking a chance for thunderstorms across the area. Although the
better upper-level dynamics remain to our north, 0-6km bulk shear
values is expect to be 50-60kts, which will support sustained
updrafts in storms. This, along with surface based instability
around 1000-1500 J/kg gives the potential for some stronger storms
along the front. A fairly strong low level jet is in place this
morning, but shifts north and east before the front makes it into
the area. So while there's more low-level directional shear in the
pre-storm environment, by the time the lifting mechanism arrives
for storm development, the environmental shear is more
unidirectional in nature. This will limit the tornado potential
across Central AL. Have kept the risk areas similar to previous
forecast with the better chances in the northern most counties
where low-level directional shear is backed a little more,
presenting a better chance for storms to produce damaging winds
and possibly a tornado. For timing, the trends in the CAMS have
been moving towards the faster solutions. Initially, the ARW was
the fastest with the NMM and HRRR being slower. The latest HRRR
has come more in line with the ARW. The NAM is still much slower
than the CAMs, adding some uncertainty in the exact timing of
frontal passage. For now, I have sped up the timing in our
northwestern counties, arriving as early as 11am - 3pm. The front
moves from the northwest to the southeast across Central AL,
slowing slightly. By 10pm, the front has moved southeast of the
area, ending the rain and thunderstorm chances. Behind the front,
expect breezy north winds with lows Wednesday night dropping into
the 40s.

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

A large dome of high pressure will build across Central Conus on
Thursday behind the front with decent cold air advection/northerly
flow around it into Alabama. This will be reinforced by northwest
flow aloft to help bring some Canadian air down into Conus
Thursday. With that said, we can expect lows in the 30s for both
Thursday and Friday nights. Some areas will likely dip below
freezing on Friday night as the large 1032-1037 mb surface ridge
slowly shifts into the eastern 1/3 of Conus.

Guidance continues to moderate our airmass starting Saturday as
the surface ridge moves to the Atlantic Seaboard by Saturday
night. Cold air advection gets cut off and the flow turns back
around to receive warmer moist air off of the gulf. Sunday looks
to be our transition day with milder temperatures and slowly
rising dew points as southerly winds return. Low rain chance
return by Sunday night in the northwest with rain chances
increasing on Monday into Tuesday as another front approaches.
I remain with only 30-40 % chance pops for this next system as
there are still some disagreements in solutions on timing. The
front may be through by early Tuesday but will leave in some low
pops for Tuesday/Tuesday evening with it being far out and only a
low confidence on timing overall. Will refine with future runs.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

A cold front will approach the area from the northwest this
afternoon and will result in windy conditions at times from the
south and southwest with increasing coverage of shower and
thunderstorm activity. Expect windy conditions to persist after
FROPA as a northwest wind develops. CIG's will gradually improve
overnight with VFR conditions expected on Thursday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist southerly flow will prevail today in advance of a strong
cold front, and a pre-frontal band of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to track across Central Alabama this afternoon and
evening. A few of these thunderstorms could become strong to
severe. Much cooler and drier conditions are expected for Thursday
and Friday. However, with 20 foot winds expected to remain well
below 15 mph and KBDI values all below 200. There are no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     73  40  58  34  56 /  90  20   0   0   0
Anniston    76  42  59  35  58 /  90  50   0   0   0
Birmingham  76  42  60  36  58 /  90  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  78  41  62  37  61 /  90  10   0   0   0
Calera      77  42  61  37  60 /  90  30   0   0   0
Auburn      76  46  61  37  61 /  70  80   0   0   0
Montgomery  81  49  64  39  64 /  80  80   0   0   0
Troy        79  49  63  37  64 /  50  80   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1041 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-021945-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1041 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be likely between 12 Noon and 10 PM today
as a cold front moves through the region. There is an elevated threat
of damaging winds along and north of a line from Geiger, to Thorsby,
to Wedowee, where isolated tornadoes and large hail will also be
possible. For the rest of Central Alabama, there will be a limited
threat of damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be
likely this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
124 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HAIL             BEAR CREEK              34.26N 87.72W
03/01/2017  U1.00 INCH       MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            DIME- TO QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN BEAR
            CREEK.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
126 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     HAIL             1 SW BEAR CREEK         34.25N 87.73W
03/01/2017  U1.00 INCH       MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ALONG AL241
            NEAR BEAR CREEK.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
128 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0123 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW BEAR CREEK        34.26N 87.73W
03/01/2017                   MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ACROSS AL241.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
206 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HAIL             1 W WINFIELD            33.93N 87.83W
03/01/2017  U1.00 INCH       MARION             AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN WINFIELD.

&&

GMS