Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Birmingham, AL

062 
WWUS54 KBMX 021315
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
715 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

ALC119-021325-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170102T1345Z/
Sumter AL-
715 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3305 8807 3304 8805 3304 8803 3307 8802
      3299 8791 3293 8794 3280 8807 3281 8808
      3280 8810 3283 8814 3283 8818 3284 8818
      3284 8817 3285 8816 3286 8816 3288 8818
      3291 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 240DEG 49KT 3288 8796 

$$

ALC063-021345-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170102T1345Z/
Greene AL-
715 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY...

At 715 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Eutaw, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Union, New West Greene, West Greene, Clinton, Lewiston, Pleasant
Ridge and New Mount Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 8807 3304 8805 3304 8803 3307 8802
      3299 8791 3293 8794 3280 8807 3281 8808
      3280 8810 3283 8814 3283 8818 3284 8818
      3284 8817 3285 8816 3286 8816 3288 8818
      3291 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 240DEG 49KT 3288 8796 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

56

569 
WWUS54 KBMX 021321
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
721 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

ALC063-021329-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170102T1345Z/
Greene AL-
721 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Birmingham.

LAT...LON 3305 8807 3304 8805 3304 8803 3307 8802
      3299 8791 3293 8794 3280 8807 3281 8808
      3280 8810 3283 8814 3283 8818 3284 8818
      3284 8817 3285 8816 3286 8816 3288 8818
      3291 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1318Z 240DEG 49KT 3291 8789 

$$

56

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
606 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An active severe weather day is shaping up across the Gulf States,
and confidence in the local severe weather threat has increased
somewhat this morning. However, the threat across our forecast
area remains very conditional on mesoscale features and quite
complicated. Overnight convection extending from the southeast tip
of Louisiana into Southeast AL and southern Georgia has created an
effective cold front which is now beginning to stall. This
boundary should begin to return northward later this morning and
become the effective warm front. To the north of this boundary,
the airmass is rather stable and characterized by temperatures and
dewpoints in the lower 60s. Some modification of the airmass is
possible north of the effective warm front as SSW 850 mb flow
continues to feed moisture into the region, but the strongest CAPE
should remain south of the boundary. For this reason and in the
scenarios discussed below, we will continue to show the northern
one-third of the forecast area as having no discernible severe
weather risk.

Part 1 (Noon to 8 PM): Elevated thunderstorm activity has formed
this morning in Southwest Mississippi and may reach our southwest
counties late this morning into the early afternoon. At the same
time, airmass modification may lead to surface-based instability
as these storms arrive into the CWA. There is some suggestion by
recent model information that another effective warm front will
develop in the vicinity of the Highway 80 corridor, enhancing the
threat for tornadoes and damaging winds. To account for this, our
severe weather timeframe will be shown starting at noon with an
elevated risk area extending from Demopolis to Phenix City
southward and a lower threat to the north.

Part 2 (8 PM to 3 AM): We are now also concerned about the
potential for a more substantial nocturnal severe weather
episode mainly along and south of the Interstate 85 corridor.
Short range ensemble guidance and other individual models are
coming to a consensus regarding the development of a 45-55 kt LLJ
tonight across southern Alabama along with large clockwise-curved
hodographs. This LLJ could promote the advancement of much
stronger CAPE into our S/SE counties after 8 PM. Mid-level lapse
rates have also been trending stronger with time, and forecast
soundings show an increasingly dangerous environment. What
initially may form into a QLCS could break up into supercells as
the 500 mb trough deamplifies and and 0-6 km shear vectors become
westerly or even west-northwesterly. The threat appears to
continue much longer than previously thought, and an elevated risk
for tornadoes and damaging winds will be maintained through 3 AM.
A strong tornado or two may also be possible, and that possibility
will need to be evaluated in later updates.

There is still not a good model consensus beyond Wednesday,
leading to continued low forecast confidence. Ensemble members
continue to show a wide range of possibilities from wintry
precipitation to all rain to totally dry conditions for Thursday
through Saturday. A slight chance for a wintry mix was kept in for
Friday into Friday for consistency.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Band of showers across the U.S. 80 corridor and southward this
morning. A few lightning strikes near TOI otherwise expecting TS
activity to increase during the day from the south/southwest
spreading across/into all areas of TAFs by afternoon as a warm
front progresses northward and ahead of a cold front to our
northwest. Until then IFR cigs and MVFR fog will be common along
I-20 corridor behind earlier rain shield. Some storms could be
strong this afternoon and tonight especially in the MGM/TOI area.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Wet conditions will continue through tonight with drier conditions
to follow. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  58  65  47  51 /  90 100  20  10  10
Anniston    68  59  66  48  54 /  90 100  20  10  10
Birmingham  70  59  66  49  53 /  90  90  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  71  58  68  49  54 / 100  80  10  10  10
Calera      70  59  67  49  54 /  90  90  20  10  10
Auburn      69  60  68  50  58 /  90 100  20  10  10
Montgomery  73  60  72  52  61 / 100  90  10  10  10
Troy        72  59  72  51  63 /  90  90  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
counties: Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Cleburne...
Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...
Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...
Walker...Winston.

Flash Flood Watch through 6 AM Tuesday for the following
counties: Barbour...Bullock...Chambers...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...
Montgomery...Pike...Russell.

&&

87/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
623 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-031530-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
623 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH AROUND 9 AM. USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT FROM AROUND NOON TO AROUND 3 AM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE RISK WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
MILLPORT TO CALERA TO LAFAYETTE LINE FROM NOON TO 8 PM SHIFTING TO
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO CALERA TO CHEAHA LINE FROM 8 PM
TO AROUND 3 AM. AN ENHANCED RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM DEMOPOLIS TO MONTGOMERY TO JUST NORTH OF AUBURN
INITIALLY FROM AROUND NOON TO 8 PM SHIFTING TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A SELMA TO JUST NORTH OF AUBURN LINE FROM AROUND 8 PM TO 3 AM.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60
MPH, AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT MAY BE
NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

08