Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
215 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Shower and thunderstorm potential through this evening highlights
the short term forecast

While the best chances for severe convection are east of the
James River Valley, there appears to be a window between 18 and 21
UTC possibly supportive of perhaps a strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm across the James River Valley. This is in association
with a subtle impulse propagating east along the base of the
upper low, with a moderately unstable environment in place with
MLCAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg per the 18 UTC RAP. Deep layer shear
remains rather weak, and only marginally supportive of organized
convection.

Elsewhere across central and northwest North Dakota, sub-severe
scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper
level low will continue through the afternoon, diurnally fading
with sunset. Cannot rule out a weak funnel cloud today with the
upper low over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Shower and thunderstorm potential Friday into Saturday and a
possible return to warmer temperatures next week highlight the
extended forecast.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday through Saturday,
especially west and south central, with a series of shortwaves
embedded in cyclonic northwest flow aloft. Instability is expected
to be weak, and severe weather is not expected. Thereafter, the 12
UTC global suites favor a possible transition to upper level
ridging across the region early to mid next week. This may signal
at least a brief return to normal and even above normal
temperatures for the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

VFR cumulus and towering cumulus decks with scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue across much of central and northwest
North Dakota this afternoon into the evening. MVFR stratus may
linger south central and across the James River Valley tonight
into Thursday morning. VFR conditions are expected area wide
thereafter on Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
146 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-032>037-041-042-045>048-050-051-
101900-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Hettinger-
Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
146 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017 /1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today across
much of western and central North Dakota. A few stronger storms
will be possible in the afternoon and early evening across the
James River Valley. Large hail up to quarter size, gusty winds to
50 mph, and dangerous lightning will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday through
Saturday, especially across western and south central North
Dakota. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ031-040-043-044-101900-
Golden Valley-Slope-Bowman-Adams-
1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday through
Saturday, especially across western and south central North
Dakota. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PA

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