Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

August 1, 2017Grant County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Aug 1, 2017, 2:50 AM MDT for Grant County, North Dakota. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 1, 2017, 2:50 AM MDT (08:50 UTC)
Expired
Aug 1, 2017, 3:30 AM MDT
In force
40 min
Issued by
NWS Bismarck, ND

County Grant County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2017-08-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1523 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 00:00Z on 2017-08-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -9 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1523 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-41 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2374 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 4:49 PM MDT, 10 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 4:49 PM MDT, 10 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
549 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Have focused the better POPs along the frontal boundary across
south central North Dakota. Lowered POPs north for this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Forecast concerns this period focus on the thunderstorms and
severe weather threat associated with a cold front moving through
central North Dakota late this afternoon.

Latest CAM models show the focus for thunderstorms will be
southwest to northeast across central and southwest North Dakota
and moving southeast with time.

Sufficient cape and steep low level Lapse rates are present but
weak shear will probably mean short lived super cells with a hail
and wind threat.

Main time period for the convection will be late this afternoon
through mid evening.

Some lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms southwest on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

The extended forecast will be focused on several shortwaves
moving in northwest flow through the region. The first Tuesday
night and Wednesday will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region. This will also usher in much cooler
air for the remainder of the week.

By Friday another shortwave in the primarily northwest flow
will bring another chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms
Friday night, Saturday and Sunday. this so far looks not as
widespread.

The ensemble situational awareness table picked out an abnormally
high surface pressure across southern canada midweek, associated
with cool temperatures. Lowered highs a bit Thursday but there
may be more widespread 60s for highs across the region Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

At 5 PM CDT a cold front extended across south central North
Dakota northeast through the Grand Forks area. The front will be
the focus for scattered thunderstorms KBIS-KJMS between 00Z and
03Z this evening. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 2:13 PM MDT, 12 hours 37 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017

NDZ005-012-013-018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-012015-
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 /213 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue into this
evening. A few storms could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds the likely threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is chance of thunderstorms across western North Dakota
Tuesday night.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday across
all of western and central North Dakota.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday afternoon and evening
across southwest and central North Dakota.

NDZ001>004-009>011-017-012015-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-
313 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2017 /213 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is chance of thunderstorms across western North Dakota
Tuesday night.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday across
all of western and central North Dakota.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday afternoon and evening
across southwest and central North Dakota.

waa

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 31, 6:05 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISKidder25 min
Aug 1, 2:07 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISStark38 min
Aug 1, 3:17 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISHettinger43 min
Aug 1, 4:05 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISGrant, Sioux40 min
Aug 1, 4:41 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISSioux49 min
Aug 1, 4:59 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementBISSioux46 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.