Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
514 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Will continue to monitor convection through the evening across
northwest and north central North Dakota where effective deep
layer shear is greatest across the area, although only marginally
favorable for organized convection. MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg with
effective deep layer shear of 25-30kts supports the potential for
marginal severe hail and wind gusts of 60+ mph given inverted-v
soundings. Will have to closely monitor the outflow boundary to
the north of Minot as it continues to propagate southeast as a
focus for possible new initiation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

The short term concern will be severe weather potential for this
afternoon and early evening. Early convection began in an area of
steep low level lapse rates across western North Dakota. A weak
frontal boundary extending from north central into teh west will
also be a focus for convection. However with shear weak expect
mainly short lived pulse storms through early evening.

Expect the convection to migrate into central North Dakota later
this evening.

On Sunday a building h500 ridge will cap most convection leaving
just widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will again be
in the 80s east to lower to mid 90s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

For the extended period a northwest flow regime will set up
providing several opportunities for thunderstorms. The best
chances are expected to be Monday night and Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Both periods will be associated with cold fronts
and cooler temperatures. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the
80s to middle 90s. By Tuesday cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s,
and Wednesday through Friday will see as cool as 70 north central
and 70s to lower 80s south and west. A bit warmer Saturday with
highs in the 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 507 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

Scattered thunderstorms across western and north central North
Dakota this evening will continue to slowly move east-southeast
through the evening. A few storms may be strong to severe across
northern North Dakota through sunset. Storms will become less
numerous and intense after sunset as they move southeast into the
south central portion of the state.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...PA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
535 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-302245-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
535 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 /435 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight. A
few storms could be severe northwest and north central through
sunset with large hail to quarter size, damaging winds to 65 mph
and dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are daily chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
607 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

NDZ009-010-017-292345-
McKenzie ND-Mountrail ND-Williams ND-
607 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCKENZIE...EAST
CENTRAL WILLIAMS AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 607 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of Ross, or 21 miles southwest of Stanley, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
McKenzie...east central Williams and west central Mountrail Counties,
including the following locations: White Earth Bay Recreation Area
and Charlson.

LAT...LON 4820 10300 4830 10277 4808 10241 4793 10278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 325DEG 23KT 4818 10282

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             8 SSW ROSS              48.21N 102.62W
07/29/2017  M1.00 INCH       MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

AE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
547 PM MDT SAT JUL 29 2017

NDZ018-300015-
Dunn ND-
547 PM MDT SAT JUL 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

At 547 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Dunn Center, or 12 miles east of Killdeer, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Halliday, Dodge and Marshall.

LAT...LON 4743 10250 4741 10221 4704 10215 4709 10242
      4727 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 294DEG 17KT 4733 10250

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
702 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GRENORA                 48.62N 103.94W
07/29/2017                   WILLIAMS           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD SPOTTED LOOKING SOUTHWEST OF
            GRENORA.

&&

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