Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

The short term concern will be severe weather potential for this
afternoon and early evening. Early convection began in an area of
steep low level lapse rates across western North Dakota. A weak
frontal boundary extending from north central into teh west will
also be a focus for convection. However with shear weak expect
mainly short lived pulse storms through early evening.

Expect the convection to migrate into central North Dakota later
this evening.

On Sunday a building h500 ridge will cap most convection leaving
just widely scattered thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will again be
in the 80s east to lower to mid 90s west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

For the extended period a northwest flow regime will set up
providing several opportunities for thunderstorms. The best
chances are expected to be Monday night and Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Both periods will be associated with cold fronts
and cooler temperatures. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the
80s to middle 90s. By Tuesday cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s,
and Wednesday through Friday will see as cool as 70 north central
and 70s to lower 80s south and west. A bit warmer Saturday with
highs in the 70s to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

At noon CDT a nearly stationary frontal boundary across northwest
North Dakota will remain in place this afternoon then retreat
back north late tonight as warm air moves in associated with a
mid level ridge over the western CONUS. Scattered thunderstorms
will be the hazard to aviation this afternoon and tonight. VFR is
forecast for all TAF sites.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
332 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-302045-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
332 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017 /232 PM MDT Sat Jul 29 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and tonight. A few storms could be severe west with
large hail and gusty winds the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There are daily chances for thunderstorms through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

waa

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
358 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 S WATFORD CITY       47.66N 103.32W
07/29/2017  M62 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   MESONET

            WCYN8 RAWS MESONET SITE.

&&

AE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
403 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

NDZ002-011-292130-
Ward ND-Burke ND-
403 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Bowbells, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bowbells, Coteau and Niobe.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4888 10212 4869 10210 4862 10219 4862 10243
      4880 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 258DEG 12KT 4873 10233

AYD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

NDZ017-292130-
McKenzie ND-
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 29 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Watford City, moving east at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnsons Corner.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4793 10291 4767 10283 4768 10310 4767 10310
      4767 10323 4780 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 254DEG 8KT 4777 10316

AYD

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