Alert archive / North Dakota / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 21, 2017Emmons County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this special weather statement at Jul 21, 2017, 6:45 PM CDT for Emmons County, North Dakota. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2017, 6:45 PM CDT (23:45 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2017, 7:30 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND

County Emmons County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 211 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -475 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1536 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 85 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 238 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 21, 6:03 PM CDT, 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 6:03 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
603 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

We refreshed hourly PoPs through mid evening with this update
based on observational trends. Attempts at convective initiation
have occurred along a density gradient (dewpoint discontinuity)
centered on Dunn County since 2145 UTC, but based on GOES-16
imagery it appears anvils have orphaned with that activity and
it's not clear deep initiation will indeed occur in that area.
Mesoscale analysis data suggests mean LCL-LFC relative humidity
values are only near 30 percent, which may be indicative of dry
air entrainment to the detriment of deep convection. Nonetheless,
we will continue to monitor that area in case we need to expand
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch further northwest. Otherwise, in
south central ND other cumulus continues to be agitated and per
the mesoscale analysis, MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is now largely
uncapped. Additional convective initiation may thus occur in the
next 90 minutes with an attendant severe risk, including the
potential for supercells initially. The mean LCL-LFC relative
humidity values in the RAP-based SPC mesoscale analysis are also
higher south of Bismarck, implying less potential for dry air
entrainment. However, the degree of remaining MLCIN is still
somewhat uncertain given satellite trends to this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Severe potential this afternoon and evening central ND, and
critical fire weather conditions southwest and south
central on Saturday highlight the short term forecast.

See the fire weather discussion below for details regarding
critical conditions southwest and south central Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Currently, ongoing thunderstorm activity that developed across
northwest and north central ND continued from the Devils Lake Basin
westward into Mercer and McLean counties. This is believed to be
associated with an upper level impulse moving east across the state
today. At the surface, low pressure was near Watford City/Stanley
area of western Lake Sakakawea...with drier northwest winds to its
west and humid southerly to easterly winds to its east. A surface
trough extending from the low into central SD is forecast to move
eastward slowly tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary, with the high res CAMs indicating south central ND
and into the James Valley as the most likely area for increasing
thunderstorm coverage as the CAP erodes with temperatures rising
into the 90s.

MU Cape values of around 3000 J/kg in current mesoscale analysis
with generally 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear.

A a severe thunderstorm watch will be in effect through much of this
evening south central to the James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A progressive pattern dominates the long term with occasional upper
level shortwaves in the westerlies moving across North Dakota. One
such wave on Monday afternoon/night will bring a chance of
thunderstorms to our area. Another wave will bring a chance
Wednesday/Thursday as well.

Highs in the 85 to 95 range Monday, and in the 80s for the rest of
next week is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in south central ND this
evening with an attendant risk of sub-VFR conditions, large hail,
and damaging winds. KBIS and KJMS could be impacted. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected overnight and on Saturday. A drying
northwest wind with gusts to 30 kt is expected Saturday behind a
cold front that will cross the area tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For Saturday, afternoon humidity between 15 and 20 percent,
northwest winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts, and
temperatures in the 80s are forecast across southwest and south
central North Dakota Saturday afternoon. When combined with dry
fuels, critical fire weather conditions are possible. A Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Saturday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NDZ020-031>035-040>046.

&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
FIRE WEATHER...JV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 6:12 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
612 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

NDZ025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-222315-
Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
612 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 /512 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across south central
North Dakota this evening, generally along and east of U.S.
Highway 83 and south of Highway 200. Large, destructive hail to
2 inches in diameter or greater, damaging winds to 75 mph, and a
tornado or two are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
south central North Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

There is chance of thunderstorms Monday night, and again on
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening across central North
Dakota. Please report severe weather to the National Weather
Service in Bismarck at 701-223-4582.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>033-040-041-043-044-222315-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
612 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 /512 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across
southwest North Dakota early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
southwest and south central North Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch is
in effect.

There is chance of thunderstorms Monday night, and again on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

CJS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 6:28 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
528 PM MDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ042-212345-
Grant ND-
528 PM MDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 528 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Carson, or 20 miles southeast of Elgin, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Grant
County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
south central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4620 10164 4630 10152 4623 10131 4608 10147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 298DEG 17KT 4622 10151

ABELING

Local storm report, Jul 21, 6:38 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             JUANITA                 47.50N 98.68W
07/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       FOSTER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ESTIMATED. WAS ALSO WIND
            DRIVEN, SO BROKE OUT WINDOWS, DENTED CARS,
            AND STRIPPED SOME PAINT OFF SIDING. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jul 21, 6:39 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG JUANITA                 47.50N 98.68W
07/21/2017                   FOSTER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN. BROKEN WINDOWS
            FROM WIND DRIVEN QUARTER SIZE HAIL. A GRAIN
            TRUCK KNOCKED OVER, AND WIND DRIVEN HAIL
            STRIPPED PAINT OF SIDING. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jul 21, 6:42 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
642 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JUANITA                 47.50N 98.68W
07/21/2017                   FOSTER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN. BROKEN WINDOWS
            FROM WIND DRIVEN QUARTER SIZE HAIL. A GRAIN
            TRUCK KNOCKED OVER, AND WIND DRIVEN HAIL
            STRIPPED PAINT OF SIDING. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR. CORRECTED TO CLASSIFY AS
            THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jul 21, 6:44 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
644 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLENFIELD               47.46N 98.57W
07/21/2017                   FOSTER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE POWER LINES DOWN. MULTIPLE TREES
            DOWN. TRACTOR TRAILER TRUCK BLOWN OVER. TIME
            ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

&&

ZH

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 6:45 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ046-050-220030-
McIntosh ND-Emmons ND-
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MCINTOSH AND
SOUTHEASTERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westfield, or 16 miles south of Linton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Strasburg, Hague, Westfield and Hull.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4609 10031 4617 10015 4609 9976 4594 9989
      4594 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 308DEG 16KT 4604 10011

EDWARDS/KING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 7:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Grant, Hettinger, Morton, Sioux, Stark	58 min
Jul 20, 7:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Ward	47 min
Jul 20, 7:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McHenry, Ward	47 min
Jul 20, 8:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	27 min
Jul 20, 8:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burke	40 min
Jul 20, 9:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Mountrail, Ward	48 min
Jul 21, 1:58 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	BIS	Emmons, Logan, McIntosh	114 min
Jul 21, 2:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Divide	47 min
Jul 21, 3:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey	42 min
Jul 21, 3:44 AM CDT	Fire Weather Watch	BIS	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Burleigh, Emmons, Golden Valley and 7 more	25 hr
Jul 21, 1:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sheridan	26 min
Jul 21, 1:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Sheridan, Wells	55 min
Jul 21, 2:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Foster	24 min
Jul 21, 2:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Foster, Stutsman, Wells	61 min
Jul 21, 4:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Sheridan	15 min
Jul 21, 4:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burleigh	27 min
Jul 21, 5:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dunn	27 min
Jul 21, 5:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	52 min
Jul 21, 6:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	21 min
Jul 21, 6:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Grant	17 min
Jul 21, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	62 min
Jul 21, 6:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Burke	31 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in North Dakota, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.