Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Bismarck, ND

812 
WWUS53 KBIS 012126
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
426 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NDC043-012136-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-171001T2200Z/
Kidder ND-
426 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL KIDDER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4687 10008 4721 10005 4720 9948 4700 9948
      4681 9997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 216DEG 21KT 4701 9990 

$$

JONES

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
213 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will continue to be
showers and thunderstorm chances now through early this evening.
Still expect a window for strong to severe storms 19-01Z today
over my central and east, more so my south central and southeast.

Currently, large trough of low pressure remains over the western
CONUS with strong southwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains.
Strong embedded S/WV impulses rotating around the trough and
lifting northeast across the region resulting in showers across
eastern MT/western ND and across the upper Mississippi. Surface
trough over the central Dakotas will be the focus for possible
strong to severe storms this afternoon as we destabilize.
Clearing has been occurring the past few hours along the trough
axis and has led to CU development over south central ND. ESRL
HRRR has consistently focused convective initialization in this
area between 19-20Z.

SPC earlier moved the marginal risk farther west for severe
thunderstorm potential, just east of Minot and Bismarck for the
remainder of this afternoon into early this evening. This
conditional severe threat seems plausible and supported by the
latest CAM suites. 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE and effective deep
layer shear around 30 kts, will combine with strong sfc forcing
and support aloft for a few organized updrafts. Main threats will
be large hail (quarter to golf ball size) and winds up to 70 mph
for the stronger storms. Given low cigs and 0-1KM shear a low end
tornado threat will also exist.

Precipitation will decrease from southwest to northeast early to
mid evening as drier air advects into our area. Another strong
embedded wave will bring a decent chance for showers to the James
River Valley overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Cooler temperatures this coming week, and perhaps a rain snow mix
west Tuesday morning highlight the extended forecast.

Upper level low develops Monday night over eastern MT and remains
over the state through mid week before lifting northeast. This
feature will keep some precipitation chances over our area through
Tuesday. Temperatures in the mid 30s Tuesday morning across the
west may support some potential for a possible light rain and
snow mix, though will need to see what temperatures aloft do.
Right now a mix would be more favored to our west. Highs
generally in the 50s are favored through mid-week. Afterwards
models show a wide spread of solutions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

Surface low pressure will move across central North Dakota today.
Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue west before
ending south to north this evening. There remains a chance of
thunderstorms central, some strong to severe with large hail and
damaging winds. KBIS and KJMS will see the best chance for this.
Areas of MVFR ceilings will continue southwest and east until this
evening when the dry air moves in.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...NH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
331 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

NDZ003>005-011>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-022045-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McLean-Sheridan-
Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
331 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms across central North Dakota
this afternoon and early evening. A few thunderstorms could be
severe. The greatest chance for severe storms will be across south
central North Dakota and the James River Valley. Quarter size
hail, damaging winds to 60 mph, and dangerous lightning are the
primary threats. However, a tornado threat is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed across south central North Dakota
and the James River Valley this afternoon.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045-022045-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-
Adams-Sioux-
331 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 /231 PM MDT Sun Oct 1 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
236 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

NDZ045-046-012015-
Sioux ND-Emmons ND-
236 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX AND
SOUTHWESTERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of Fort Yates, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Yates, Cattail Recreation Area and Beaver Bay Recreation Area.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4612 10088 4630 10046 4603 10021 4594 10049
      4595 10077
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 221DEG 18KT 4601 10068

JONES