Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Bismarck, ND

596 
WWUS53 KBIS 122346
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NDC037-085-130030-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0133.000000T0000Z-170813T0030Z/
Sioux ND-Grant ND-
646 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM
CDT/630 PM MDT/ FOR SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX AND SOUTHEASTERN GRANT
COUNTIES...

At 645 PM CDT/545 PM MDT/, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles
south of Shields, or 12 miles northwest of Selfridge, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Selfridge around 720 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Porcupine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an 
interior room, a bathroom or closet or basement.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4623 10145 4632 10116 4607 10084 4594 10084
      4594 10124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 328DEG 17KT 4613 10116 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
448 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 446 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Quick update for the band of thunderstorms from Beach to Hazen
to south of minot. This area of thunderstorms has been producing
heavy rain. Do not expect flash flooding but getting some reports
of standing water on roads, along I-94 near Medora for example.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Latest GOES16 water vapor imagery loop shows a mid level upper
low circulating over northwestern ND, soon to transition south as
a stronger shortwave rotates and into southwest/south central ND
this evening. The mid/upper low slowly meanders into the southern
James River Valley after midnight. Areas of fog 05z-15z Sunday for
southwest and south central ND has been added to the gridded
forecast per HRRR/RAP13 Surface Visibility Forecast.

For this afternoon and evening, per water vapor imagery, our
attention is directed toward a pair of 700mb-500mb shortwaves
noted over Dawson and Custer Counties in eastern Montana. The
GFS/RAP13 have both initialized this very well with the current
location, and begins pushing these shortwaves into southwestern
ND 21z-00z, then into far south central 03z-06z, and exiting the
southern James River Valley 12z-15z Sunday. Large scale ascent
increases this afternoon southwest and far south central in
response to the shortwave aloft and the left exit region of a 60kt
300mb jet streak scooting through southeastern MT/southwestern
ND. A cold pocket of -16C also aiding in destabilization. Air
parcels will encounter moderate instability with mixed layer CAPE
between 1000-2000 J/kg, Effective Bulk Shear values of 40kt, and
mid level lapse rates around 7.5C/km. With that said, will
continue with previous forecasts and maintain a mention of severe
thunderstorms in far southwest and into far south central ND
through early this evening. This is also in line with the Marginal
Severe Thunderstorm Risk per SPC. Main threats of large hail and
damaging winds continue. Localized heavy rainfall (1 to 2 inches)
per WPC in a short amount of time with any thunderstorm remains
valid as well.

The Simulated High Resolution Composite Reflectivities in decent
agreement with developing pockets of showers/thunderstorms from
Williston south to Bowman, which is in line with the current
Regional Radar. The Non-Supercell Composite Index is between 1
and 2 over northwest ND. Will need to monitor the low level lapse
rates and surface vorticity for any potential landspouts that
could develop within this area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the evening,
then shift away from southwest ND towards midnight. As mentioned
above, concur with fog southwest and south central given the
moisture, and crossover temperatures being met later tonight per
BUFKIT soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

A mid level transitory shortwave ridge shifts into eastern MT and
western ND Sunday, behind the departing upper low. Increasing
sunshine west Sunday morning, with clouds decreasing in the
afternoon in the central. Lingering precipitation over the James
River Valley Sunday morning, diminishes through 18z Sunday before
ending. Highs in the 70s.

The next in a series of shortwaves moves into eastern MT and
western ND Monday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Additional shortwaves traverse through a southwest flow aloft
Monday night through Tuesday night affecting western and central
ND with showers and thunderstorms. A break on Wednesday with
another shortwave slated for Thursday/Thursday night. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Monday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Mid and upper level circulation will keep the threat of showers
and thunderstorms through the forecast period. Currently band of
showers and thunderstorms approaching KJMS and extending north
northwest to around KMOT. Will have a mention of showers and
thunderstorms for these areas as TAF period begins. Better risk of
stronger storms will be this afternoon into early this evening
for KDIK to KBIS and points south. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
possible with any thunderstorms. East to southeast flow continues
through the period with indications of MVFR to IFR ceilings
Sunday morning, especially across the southern TAF sites. Will
bring MVFR ceilings and start off with a SCT layer of IFR and MVFR
Vsbys. Later shifts may need to trend lower with ceilings and
vsbys.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
444 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

NDZ040>046-132145-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
444 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 /344 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through
early evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats,
along with locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Tuesday, and again Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters...please report any hail, rainfall amounts, and any wind
gust of 40 mph or higher to the National Weather Service. You can
reach us by calling 701-223-4582, report online at weather.gov/bis,
or social media via Facebook and Twitter.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-047-048-050-051-132145-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
444 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017 /344 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon into tonight.
A few storms could be strong with small hail and wind gusts as high
as 40 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Tuesday, and again Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             7 NE ASHLEY             46.11N 99.27W
08/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       MCINTOSH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LITTLE DAMAGE TO THE SOY BEANS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
534 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       7 NE ASHLEY             46.11N 99.27W
08/12/2017  M3.60 INCH       MCINTOSH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RECEIVED IN ABOUT 40 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
535 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             ZAP                     47.29N 101.92W
08/12/2017  E0.75 INCH       MERCER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
538 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELLENDALE               46.00N 98.53W
08/12/2017  M1.50 INCH       DICKEY             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
609 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             SAINT GERTRUDE          46.29N 101.33W
08/12/2017  M2.75 INCH       GRANT              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL BOUNCING 5 FEET OFF THE
            AROUND. DENTS IN HIS VEHICLE.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             11 W SCHEFIELD          46.69N 103.09W
08/12/2017  E2.75 INCH       STARK              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EST. 40 MPH WINDS.

&&