Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Bismarck, ND

084 
WWUS53 KBIS 250500
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2017

NDC049-250545-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-170725T0545Z/
McHenry ND-
1200 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY...

At 1200 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Karlsruhe, or 28 miles southeast of Minot, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Karlsruhe around 1210 AM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Bergen
and George Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4848 10028 4803 10025 4795 10070 4808 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 238DEG 33KT 4807 10072 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ABELING

974 
WWUS53 KBIS 250512
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2017

NDC049-250522-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-170725T0545Z/
McHenry ND-
1212 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4848 10028 4803 10025 4795 10070 4808 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0511Z 236DEG 38KT 4814 10056 

$$

ABELING

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
841 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along the cold front
as it moves though west central North Dakota. Thunderstorms are
moving into a region of CIN and this may start to weaken and elevate
them. Trends continue to show diminishing updrafts so expect the
storms to diminish rapidly after sunset. Did have to increase the
area of POPs across south central North Dakota where thunderstorms
have persisted longer than earlier thought.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are forming along the advancing
cold front in western North Dakota at this time. Current forecast
has the location pretty well defined but will add some 20-30 POPs
to account for what may become a line of showers and scattered
thunderstorms in west central North Dakota. Otherwise current
forecast looks good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A compact upper level shortwave trough was noted on water vapor
imagery over south central North Dakota, sparking some showers and
isolated thunderstorms near the South Dakota border over the
south central and James River Valley. As this circulation moves
east, clouds will begin to dissipate with rapidly warming
temperatures in it's wake. Additionally, a closed upper low
located near the central Alberta Saskatchewan border will push
another shortwave towards North Dakota late this afternoon and
tonight.

At the surface, a cold front was moving through northwestern North
Dakota, extending from a surface low over central Saskatchewan.
This cold front will be the focus for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, some
of which may become severe. The main question with regards to
thunderstorms will be coverage. Strong capping was noted on the
12z Bismarck sounding with an 850mb temperature near 21 degrees
Celsius. Early morning cloud cover may also limit high temperature
potential in the south and we may struggle to reach our
convective temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit here in Bismarck.

The better chance for thunderstorms appears to be over the north,
initiating in the 21 to 23z time frame from just west of Minot to
the international border. It should be noted that there is
disagreement in the high resolution models. The operational HRRR
has kept any convection relegated to the very northern tier of
our counties for numerous runs, while the 12z NAM nest and
experimental HRRR initiate storms much further south. At this
time, the best guess is somewhere in between and have tried to
reflect that in the precipitation chances. The 18z RAP shows a
narrow corridor of MLCAPE approaching 2000+ J/kg along and ahead
of the front co-located with 35 to 40 knots of 0-6km shear.
Therefore, if any thunderstorms can break the cap, there will be
a chance for some high based supercells. Large hail and damaging
winds would be the greatest threats.

The cold front continues to sweep southeast overnight. Tuesday
will see cooler high temperatures for most of the forecast area,
with another chance for a strong to severe storm across our far
southeast in the afternoon along the front.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Precipitation chances will fade by Tuesday night and Wednesday and
Thursday should remain dry as upper level ridging once again
builds to the west placing North Dakota in northwest flow aloft.
As the ridge moves east, return flow sets back in as does a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. Over the
weekend, ridging builds once again, increasing temperatures with
only slight chances of periodic hit and miss thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

At 6 PM CDT a cold front extended across northwest into west
central North Dakota. The front will move east and will be the
focus for showers and scattered thunderstorms tonight which will
be the main hazard to aviation. VFR is forecast for all TAF
sites. Low confidence in timing and location of thunderstorms so
have used VCTS at KDIK only this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
842 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-260145-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
842 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017 /742 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through Monday
evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A chance of thunderstorms continues Tuesday across southern North
Dakota. A couple storms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

waa

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1028 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

NDZ011-250400-
Ward ND-
1028 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WARD COUNTY UNTIL
1100 PM CDT...

At 1028 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burlington, or 6 miles west of Minot, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minot, Burlington and Surrey.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4845 10111 4838 10106 4837 10106 4837 10105
      4832 10101 4819 10101 4811 10147 4824 10158
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 241DEG 39KT 4820 10142

ABELING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

NDZ011-021-250400-
Ward ND-McLean ND-
1030 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND NORTH
CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1030 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ryder, or 19 miles northwest of Garrison, moving east at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rice Lake and Douglas around 1035 PM CDT.
  Max around 1055 PM CDT.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4781 10167 4800 10173 4810 10125 4780 10114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 259DEG 24KT 4790 10158

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1043 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1041 PM     HAIL             MINOT                   48.24N 101.30W
07/24/2017  E0.75 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            COUPLE MINUTES OF DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.
            NO WIND AS OF YET.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1049 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HAIL             MINOT                   48.24N 101.30W
07/24/2017  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1053 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             MINOT                   48.24N 101.30W
07/24/2017  M1.25 INCH       WARD               ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

NDZ004-012-250445-
McHenry ND-Bottineau ND-
1119 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BOTTINEAU AND NORTH
CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1119 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Upham, or 25 miles southwest of Bottineau, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Bottineau and north central McHenry Counties, including the following
locations: Gardena.

LAT...LON 4846 10080 4850 10084 4873 10045 4868 10029
      4857 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 236DEG 40KT 4851 10071

ABELING