Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
307 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger into this
evening before weak high pressure builds in later tonight and
Thursday to provide mostly dry weather. Scattered showers
return on Friday as the next disturbance approaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
240 PM Update...
An upper disturbance, coupled with marginal instability will
maintain showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into
early this evening before diurnal stabilization takes over.
Best shear and instability combines over the Western Catskills,
but even that is rather marginal for severe weather. Can't
totally rule out some hail around an inch, or a gusty
thunderstorm given the inverted-v soundings as the surface
dewpoints continue to drop. Severe Thunderstorm watch will
continue for now across our 3 eastern counties. Another weak
disturbance may bring additional clouds and a chance of light
showers to the upper Mohawk Valley toward morning. Elsewhere,
moist and cool boundary layer conditions after today's rain will
promote at least some fog development, likely fairly dense in
the river valleys.

Temperatures mainly in the lower 50s with normally cold spots in
the rural areas reaching the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
240 PM Update...
The area remains within broad cyclonic flow aloft with weak,
and difficult to time, disturbances moving through the region.
Have included some slight chance PoPs in the better forcing
areas across the upper Mohawk Valley, Finger Lakes and Western
Catskills tomorrow, but overall confidence is low. In general,
we think this will be a mainly dry day for most areas with
varying amounts of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures roughly
5-10 degrees cooler today in the mid-60s.

More low confidence in the forecast heading into Thursday night
as weak waves continue to rotate through the region. Moisture is
limited, but the NAM and GGEM continue to hint at a possibility
of light showers, or sprinkles, across the northern half of the
area where forcing and 1000-500 mean layer RH appears to be the
highest. Again thinking this will be a fairly dry time period,
but can't rule out the possibilities for spotty light precip.
Thursday night should be rather cool under cold advection with
925 mb temps around +6-8C...which translates to the low-mid 40s
in most areas, but near 50 for parts of NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Northwest flow continues on Friday with a upper wave and surface
trough forecast to rotate through the area. That should trigger
a few more showers over the area. Surface high builds into the
area for Saturday As the old upper low heads east in response to
the next system dropping into the western Great Lakes.

On Sunday morning, surface low has deepened over Michigan in
response to a sharp wave dropping into the region. Rain will
break out once again as southerly flow of gulf moisture
develops ahead of the low. A good amount of rain seems possible
as the slow moving slow crawls east to near Buffalo. Dry slot
finally rotates arond the low by Monday morning but showers will
continue through the end of the period with the cold pool aloft
and deep moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions are expected into this evening with
passing showers, or a brief thunderstorm, possible at each
airport. Convection wanes early this evening. Many locations
will likely experience some fog/ceiling restrictions after
06z...with conditions improving after 12z. VFR scattered to
broken ceilings are expected on Thursday.

Winds prevailing from the SW at 5-15 knots, but variable near
thunderstorms. Winds become light tonight and return to W-SW on
Thursday.

Outlook...
Friday...Operational impacts possible. Chance SHRA/TSRA.
Saturday...No operational impacts expected. WX NIL.
Sunday-Monday...Operational impacts possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
248 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072-011900-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Tioga-Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
248 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ046-057-062-011900-
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-
248 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into this evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NYZ024-025-055-056-312000-
Chemung NY-Tioga NY-Broome NY-Tompkins NY-
300 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHWESTERN BROOME...
NORTHEASTERN CHEMUNG...CENTRAL TIOGA AND SOUTHEASTERN TOMPKINS
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 259 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Van Etten, or 13 miles north of Waverly, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. That is strong enough to cause minor tree damage such as
broken branches.

Locations impacted include...
Maine, Nanticoke, Berkshire, Richford, Newark Valley, Whitney Point,
Candor, Spencer, Van Etten and Lisle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4225 7662 4228 7662 4241 7587 4227 7585
      4225 7584 4225 7582 4218 7580 4210 7662
      4224 7666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 258DEG 30KT 4220 7655

MDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
312 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NYZ046-057-312015-
Otsego NY-Delaware NY-
312 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN OTSEGO AND
NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler Radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Emmons, or over Oneonta, moving east at 40 mph. Half inch sized hail
was just reported by a trained spotter in Oneonta.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. That is strong enough to cause minor tree damage such as
broken branches.

Locations impacted include...
Oneonta, Davenport, Worcester, Maryland, Kortright, Meredith,
Stamford, Hobart, Laurens and West End.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4235 7449 4234 7514 4253 7512 4260 7465
      4255 7468 4252 7471 4242 7461 4238 7450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 264DEG 33KT 4245 7501

MDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

NYZ056-PAZ039-312000-
Broome NY-Susquehanna PA-
321 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHERN BROOME AND NORTHERN
SUSQUEHANNA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brackney, or 8 miles south of Binghamton, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts to 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. That is strong enough to cause minor tree damage such as
broken branches.

Locations impacted include...
Kirkwood, Conklin, Sanford, Deposit, Susquehanna Depot, Hallstead,
Windsor, Great Bend, Lanesboro and Friendsville.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4200 7548 4195 7548 4190 7607 4202 7609
      4219 7542 4205 7543 4202 7541 4201 7539
      4201 7537 4200 7537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 255DEG 31KT 4199 7597

MDP