Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Binghamton, NY

883 
WWUS51 KBGM 302114
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
514 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

NYC053-065-302122-
/O.CAN.KBGM.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-170530T2145Z/
Oneida NY-Madison NY-
514 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL ONEIDA AND
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

Other thunderstorms with gusty winds are moving across northern 
Oneida County. 

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4331 7514 4326 7516 4325 7513 4317 7511
      4307 7520 4303 7591 4308 7592 4309 7593
      4317 7595 4318 7594 4316 7592 4315 7589
      4322 7588 4335 7515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 260DEG 26KT 4317 7556 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
434 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish in the
area tonight, but another found of showers and storms is
expected Wednesday. Dry quiet conditions Thursday will be
followed by a continued unsettled weather pattern Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM Update...
A real contrast in conditions across the area this afternoon,
with unstable conditions in the Central Twin Tiers-Finger Lakes-
Syracuse-Mohawk Valley areas versus much more cool and stable
conditions in most of Northeast PA to the Catskills. Storms
today have behaved accordingly, with strong to at times
marginally severe thunderstorms where the instability has
resided. Strong shear in the 3-6 km layer and 50 knot plus
equilibrium level flow has favored hail with these storms,
though in most cases the hail has been small.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 8 PM for Bradford
County PA, and for all of our Central NY counties except
Delaware-Sullivan. Ribbon on instability will still support
marginally severe storms, though convection will tend to
diminish and we will soon be able to drop some counties from
the Watch early.

A few post frontal rain showers may exist tonight into early
Wed morning, but the overall trend should be to dry things
out, at least for a brief period. The next shortwave will
rotate through the region during the day Wednesday. Lapse rates
may be a bit steeper as a push of cold air aloft arrives and a
late May sun warms the boundary layer. This time there will be
some dry air in the midlevels, and the bottom of the sounding
has an inverted-V look. These factors suggest more of a potential
for strong winds compared to the storms today (Tuesday).
Precipitable water values will be quite a bit lower, and storm
motion will be quick with very little prospect for training.
Thus we are not too concerned with heavy rainfall despite it
being yet another round on wet soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in Wednesday night beneath the big upper
low over western Ontario. This will bring drier air but
continued cool as the NW flow remains. High noses in on
Thursday but with the continuing NW flow and cool pool aloft
clouds and a light shower still possible, especially over the
north.

Ridging breaks down during Friday as yet another wave rotates
through the upper low. This will increase the chance of showers
late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Really no break in the cool and unsettled pattern through the
long term. High pressure over Canada builds in briefly on
Saturday bringing dry weather and clearing skies. Models show a
big low blowing up over the southern Great Lakes as a sharp
upper wave drops in. This system will be tapping some deep
southern stream moisture and could bring some heavier rains
Sunday into early Monday with cooler air and scattered showers
continuing through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For KAVP-KBGM-KRME, stratus has yielded persistent ceiling
restrictions prior to 18Z, but focus is now on inbound
thunderstorms. They will cross the terminals roughly WSW to ESE
and could contain gusty winds and brief fuel alternate/IFR
conditions. Hail is even possible if a core passes directly
over a terminal. KELM- KITH- KSYR will be impacted first by the
storms, then KRME-KBGM. There is somewhat less certainty on the
thunderstorms reaching KAVP between 21Z and 00Z, yet it is still
more probable than not. In the wake of the storms, with a good
amount of lingering low level moisture, KBGM-KELM-KAVP will end
up developing new ceiling and/or fog-related restrictions late
tonight into early Wednesday morning; possibly other terminals
as well. Though higher gusts are possible in thunderstorms this
afternoon, winds in general will be southerly around 10 knots
this afternoon, then becoming light and more variable tonight
followed by light southwest in the morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through early evening...Restrictions
possible from scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR except for possible
valley fog predawn hours at KELM.

Friday through Sunday...Potential restrictions in occasional rain
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1244 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

NYZ057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-311645-
Delaware-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
1244 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and a few of
these storms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail
the main threat. Brief heavy rain will also be possible in any
thunderstorms. The most favorable time for storms will be during the
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of storms is possible Wednesday. A few of these storms
could become strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat.
The most favorable time for storms will be during the afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary later today.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-PAZ038-311645-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-
1244 PM EDT Tue May 30 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 299 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and a few of
these storms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail
the main threat. Brief heavy rain will also be possible in any
thunderstorms. The most favorable time for storms will be during the
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of storms is possible Wednesday. A few of these storms
could become strong to severe with damaging winds the main threat.
The most favorable time for storms will be during the afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1246 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

NYZ022-301715-
Steuben NY-
1246 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arkport, or near Hornell, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hornell, Wayland, Arkport, Cohocton, North Hornell, South Dansville,
Haskinville, Prattsburg, Perkinsville and Stony Brook State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4241 7772 4252 7772 4254 7770 4254 7766
      4257 7766 4258 7765 4258 7734 4252 7726
      4228 7767 4233 7774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 224DEG 26KT 4240 7769

DGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
104 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

NYZ022-301745-
Steuben NY-
104 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN STEUBEN COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 104 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Genesee, or 12 miles southeast of Wellsville, moving northeast at 40
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hornell, Canisteo, Howard, Jasper, Cameron, Greenwood, Hartsville,
West Cameron, Young Hickory and Willeyville.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4224 7774 4241 7759 4225 7730 4200 7762
      4200 7775
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 218DEG 35KT 4196 7785

DGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

NYZ015-022-301745-
Steuben NY-Yates NY-
119 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHWESTERN YATES AND
NORTHWESTERN STEUBEN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 119 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
South Dansville, or near I-390 Exit 4, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wayland, Middlesex, Cohocton, South Dansville, Vine Valley,
Perkinsville, Stony Brook State Park and Atlanta.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
central New York.

LAT...LON 4253 7772 4254 7766 4258 7765 4258 7750
      4259 7737 4267 7737 4267 7736 4273 7734
      4276 7731 4276 7729 4271 7720 4238 7762
      4245 7773
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 218DEG 33KT 4251 7766

DGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
310 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

NYZ015-016-301945-
Seneca NY-Yates NY-
310 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHWESTERN SENECA AND NORTHERN
YATES COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Potter, or 8 miles northwest of Penn Yan, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seneca Falls, Waterloo, Penn Yan, Fayette, Benton, Potter, Middlesex,
Tyre, Rushville and Cayuga.

LAT...LON 4275 7733 4276 7731 4276 7698 4287 7698
      4287 7696 4301 7697 4302 7675 4300 7672
      4296 7674 4284 7672 4259 7720 4272 7735
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 230DEG 43KT 4272 7721

DGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

NYZ009-018-036-037-302115-
Onondaga NY-Southern Oneida NY-Madison NY-Northern Oneida NY-
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN ONEIDA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

At 413 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Galeville, or over Syracuse, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lyndon around 425 PM EDT.
  Manlius around 430 PM EDT.
  Kirkville and Bridgeport around 435 PM EDT.
  Sullivan and Chittenango around 450 PM EDT.
  Canastota around 500 PM EDT.
  Lenox and Vienna around 510 PM EDT.
  Oneida and Verona around 515 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near a lake, get out of the water and move indoors or inside
a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the
parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on
the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7553 4298 7625 4315 7627 4319 7602
      4318 7601 4318 7594 4316 7592 4315 7589
      4321 7587 4326 7558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 263DEG 21KT 4308 7615

TAC