Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
211 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A thunderstorm will pass through the area later this afternoon
and evening bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler
and drier air will return behind the front for the first half
of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Convection over western NY is racing east this afternoon. Very
low topped storms with little lightning may produce some gusty
winds at times. Threat for widespread severe is limited by the
lack of energy with capes currently in the 2000 to 300j/kg
range. Will of course monitor convection and will likely issues
SPS's for winds at times.

Overnight, some light showers will linger into the evening as
the main front lingers back and doesn't pass until the early
morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

High pressure builds into the area Monday bringing somewhat
cooler air. Not a big push of cold air however, especially over
PA so temps will drop off only 5 to 10 degrees, especially in
the south. Winds and dry air may raise some fire weather
concerns in the afternoon, depending on how much rain falls with
the front tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday looks to be a fair and chilly day with a large
anticyclone centered over the maritimes of Canada which ridges
down across the northeast U.S including NY and PA. This stays in
place into Tuesday evening. Then all four main synoptic scale
models (Euro, GFS, CMC, and NAM80) all show another wave
approaching from the Great Lakes region with attendant moisture
and thermal advections. There is some indication that some light
showers could arrive in central NY and parts of northeast PA
later Tuesday night so have slight chance POPs for showers in
forecast as per Superblend.

Then for Wednesday surface front and associated moisture
advection works into NY and PA so have chance POPs for showers.
Models indicate that the atmosphere will be stable so no mention
of thunderstorms. This first wave passes by and is followed by
another low pressure system and associated more vigourous upper
level wave which reaches into the Great Lakes and mid-west
Wednesday night. Showers will continue as boundary from initial
system remains in the vicinity and eventually begins to work
north as a warm front by 12z Thursday as per CMC, Euro and GFS.

For Thursday into Friday this next more significant low pressure
system and associated upper level low crosses the region with
the best chance for showers. The Euro has the weakest of the
models with no closed low forming, while the GFS and CMC have a
closed 500 mb low over the northeast suggesting a wet and chilly
pattern through Friday. Given the model divergence went with
superblend and have anywhere from chance to likely POPs Thursday
Night with wrap around showers into Friday and even Friday
night.

Euro suggests high pressure and fair weather for Saturday with
the CMC and GFS having wrap around showers tapering off. So
went with a 30 percent chance of showers in this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
640 am update...

VFR weather is expected through much of this forecast period.
Early this morning as a low level jet passes while surface winds
are mostly under 10 kts so some remaining low level wind shear.
Around 14z this ends as the jet exits and surface winds shift
to the south and southwest at 10 kts with gusts to 20.
Some isolate showers in northeast PA with more upstream but
should not cause any restrictions.

Next issue will be a cold front late afternoon and early
evening. showers and thunderstorms will be ahead of and with
them. The most likely scenario would be a line just ahead of the
front. A 2 hour period of MVFR this afternoon is possible in NY.
Included a tempo for this at SYR/RME which is the most likely
outcome. There is less of a chance for AVP with the best forcing
and dynamics further north. Towards 06z ceilings are expected
to fall to MVFR behind the front in NY. Probably will not reach
AVP.

Winds early this morning light in the valleys to southwest at
10 kts on the higher locations and SYR. Around 14z Winds
increase to 10 to 15 with higher gusts and continue that way
into tonight. Winds shift to west then northwest with the cold
front 22 to 02z.

Outlook...

Monday...Lingering ceiling restrictions possible in the
morning.

Monday night - Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday - Thursday...Possible restrictions in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
212 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-171815-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
212 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the
evening. A few of these storms may produce strong winds and small
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
451 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST MCDONOUGH          42.50N  75.69W
04/16/2017                   CHENANGO           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON RT. 220.

&&

EMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
521 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW UNADILLA           42.34N  75.33W
04/16/2017                   OTSEGO             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE ACROSS COUNTY RT. 1.

&&

EMG

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