Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
730 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across NY and PA this
afternoon and evening bringing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to our area. After this disturbance passes by,
high pressure will build into our region for Sunday and Monday
with fair weather and seasonable temperatures. The next chance
for precipitation will come Tuesday as a cold front approaches
the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers are developing across western NY and northwest
Pennsylvania as weak capping indicated on the 12z Buffalo
sounding begins to break down. Strongest storms are beginning to
develop over eastern Ohio and these will track east-southeast
across western Pa during the next few hours remaining well to
our south and west. Latest HRRR and RAP forecasts continue to
indicate only marginal levels of instability in our area with
MLCAPE values maxing out near or just above 500 J/kg and the
best chances for organized convection remaining to our south and
west. We are expecting scattered showers with isolated thunder
to move across our area during the mid afternoon through early
evening followed by clearing overnight, then patchy low clouds
and fog around daybreak Sunday. Sunday looks like a mostly sunny
and seasonably warm day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s
as high pressure builds across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EDT Update...
Minor changes were made to the previous forecast. Zonal flows
will prevail over the region from Sunday night through Tuesday
morning, combined with ridging at mid-lvls and surface high
pressure. This combination will result in mostly sunny skies,
above normal temperatures with no chance for precip.

Temps Monday night will range in the mid 50s/low 60s. Temps Tues
afternoon will rise into the mid/upper 80s and fall into the 60s
Tues night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
300 PM EDT Update...
Updated with new WPC guidance...
Surface high pressure will slide off to the east early Tuesday
morning as the next storm system approaches the region from the
west. There continues to be fairly decent model agreement on the
timing of the next system with showers moving into western NY
as a sfc low moves NE into Quebec Tuesday night and a fropa
moves across Ny/PA Tues night. Showers and thunderstorms are
likely across the region late Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night. This could be our next shot for a widespread rainfall
event. The upper level shortwave that will force the sfc
low/fropa across the region will be slow to move east, thus
showers and and a possible rumble of thunder will be possible
through Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back into
the area Thurs evening.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Showers and thunderstorms will weaken over the next couple
hours leaving VFR conditions. Valley fog will form once again
bringing a chance for VLIFR to ELM, and spotty MVFR elsewhere.
For Sunday, drier air and VFR conditions are expected through
the day.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR. Possible IFR in valley fog early.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday/Thursday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MSE
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/MSE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
223 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-201830-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
223 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MSE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
643 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

NYZ046-057-192330-
Otsego NY-Delaware NY-
643 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHERN OTSEGO AND NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gilbertsville, or 11 miles west of Oneonta, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oneonta, Davenport, Maryland, Westville, Kortright, New Lisbon,
Otego, Morris, Milford and Gilbertsville.

LAT...LON 4237 7534 4253 7538 4255 7537 4257 7533
      4267 7486 4235 7473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 265DEG 34KT 4248 7529

BJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
656 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

NYZ045-056-057-200000-
Chenango NY-Broome NY-Delaware NY-
656 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN BROOME...
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTIES UNTIL 800
PM EDT...

At 656 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Windsor, or 12 miles east of Binghamton, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Walton, Sanford, Colchester, Deposit, Hamden, Windsor, Afton,
Harvard, Harpursville and Nineveh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4198 7502 4201 7575 4223 7568 4224 7497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 272DEG 29KT 4210 7567

BJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
712 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TROY                    41.79N 76.78W
08/19/2017                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR TROY AND
            RIDGEBURY TOWNSHIP.

&&

BJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
713 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

PAZ038-039-192345-
Susquehanna PA-Bradford PA-
713 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...WESTERN SUSQUEHANNA AND
NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 713 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rome, or near Towanda, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rush, Towanda, Wysox, Orwell, North Towanda, Herrick, Rome, Le
Raysville, Friendsville and Warren Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 7647 4194 7646 4197 7595 4168 7596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 271DEG 31KT 4183 7637

BJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
731 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

NYZ046-057-192345-
Otsego NY-Delaware NY-
731 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...EAST CENTRAL OTSEGO AND NORTH
CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 731 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Worcester, or 14 miles southeast of Cooperstown, moving east at 35
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Worcester, Elk Creek and Schenevus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4255 7468 4252 7471 4246 7465 4245 7465
      4245 7481 4262 7485 4266 7464 4263 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 263DEG 32KT 4255 7474

BJT

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