Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will continue to bring
showers and storms scattered across the region through tonight.
The system will start to move away with light rain tapering off
Tuesday afternoon. High pressure will finally bring mainly dry
weather for Wednesday before the next round of showers and
storms arrive Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the continuing
thunderstorms tracking from the southern tier of NY into northeast
PA this evening, the persistent light rain showers mixed with low
clouds and fog tonight/Tuesday morning, and a cool wet day expected
on Tuesday.

The threat for flooding will continue early this evening along
the NY/PA border between Sayre and Binghamton due to heavy rain
from yesterday and this afternoon, but conditions should improve
through the night as rain comes to an end. Therefore, the Flash
Flood Watch will continue into the evening.

Currently, an upper low is situated over sern Ontario moving into
srn Quebec and an associated surface inverted trough is aligned from
nrn NY into the mid-Atlantic region. The upper low is expected to
shift to the east tonight, but an extension of the upper trough will
hold back across NY along with the surface trough tonight and into
tomorrow. This forcing, combined with weak instability and deep
moisture will allow the convection to persist into this evening.
However, the overall trend will be an e/sewd movement of the storms
and a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity. An area of cold
temps aloft...500mb temp -11C and 850mb temps +8C...and sufficient
deep moisture will allow for favorable convective conditions across
the region tonight.

Towards the morning hours, will likely see the threat for
thunderstorms diminish and return to a benign showery-type pattern
into the morning hours Tuesday. There may be some low clouds and fog
in the morning, but confidence is rather low due to the presence of
the upper trough and the potential for sufficient mixing in the BL.
Heights will rise going into the day Tuesday with showers becoming
light and tapering off in the afternoon. The cool air will remain in
place, along with a likely mid level cloud deck. Highs will top out
in the 70s, but it will likely feel much cooler with dew points in
the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will slide into New England Tuesday
night. A weak surface anticyclone will move over NY and PA, with
the result being mainly fair weather Tuesday night through
Wednesday.

As the high moves into New England late Wednesday, southerly
flow is forecast to increase into NY. With this in mind, we
cannot rule out a slight chance for an isolated afternoon
thunderstorm.

A low pressure system moving into the Ohio Valley will spread
showers and thunderstorms back into NY and PA Thursday and
Thursday night. PWATs of 1.50 to 1.75 are progged to push across
Lake Erie and up the lake plain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another stormy period is forecast for Friday, as a sharp upper-
level trough shoots through NY with thunderstorms and, almost
certainly, more hydrological concerns.

The good news is the trough moves rather quickly, and heights
build across the region for Saturday through Monday. The result
should be a fair/dry period, which the entire forecast area
could really use right now.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon
across the srn tier of NY, and will spill swrd into PA through
the rest of the afternoon and evening. Most terminals will
remain BKN MVFR/VFR with periods of lower cigs/vsbys in TS.
May see a few rain showers this evening before conditions dry
out through the overnight hours. Lower cigs...IFR to fuel
alternate...are likely tonight with temporary IFR vsbys as well.
Remain pessimistic with MVFR/fuel alt cigs through almost 18Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday ...Periodic restrictions in showers as well as low cigs
in the late morning...but slowly improving conditions into the
afternoon.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday & Friday...Chance of showers-storms with associated restrictions.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038-039.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ055-056.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/PCF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1030 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-057-062-PAZ040-043-044-047-
048-072-251430-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-
Pike-Southern Wayne-
1030 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with brief heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon
and evening. The thunderstorms could also produce locally strong
winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ055-056-PAZ038-039-251430-
Tioga-Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-
1030 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to heavy rainfall and associated flash flooding
concerns, showers and thunderstorms this afternoon could produce
locally strong winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
433 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NICHOLSON               41.63N  75.79W
07/24/2017                   WYOMING            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE FELL INTO HOUSE

&&

MJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
437 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FRIENDSVILLE            41.92N  76.05W
07/24/2017                   SUSQUEHANNA        PA   911 CALL CENTER

            PA 267 FLOODED NEAR INTERSECTION WITH MILFORD-OWEGO
            TURNPIKE

&&

MJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
459 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST SYRACUSE           43.06N  76.07W
07/24/2017                   ONONDAGA           NY   TWITTER

            ROOF TORN OFF AT SYRACUSE DIESEL AND ELECTRIC

&&

JML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
505 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

NYZ018-242145-
Onondaga NY-
505 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...CENTRAL ONONDAGA COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

At 505 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jordan, or 7 miles east of New York Thruway Exit 40, moving east at
25 mph.

Half inch hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, De Witt, Van Buren, North Syracuse, Solvay,
Minoa, East Syracuse, Otisco and Skaneateles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4313 7598 4280 7614 4295 7646 4301 7646
      4301 7649 4307 7650 4310 7650 4311 7647
      4313 7647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 280DEG 20KT 4303 7643

BJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
508 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DALTON                  41.54N  75.74W
07/24/2017                   LACKAWANNA         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD

&&

MJH

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