Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
720 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will rush through the area this evening bringing
much colder air with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong
winds will also accompany the front and continue into Thursday.
Snow flurries and snow showers will arrive later tonight and end
Thursday morning. A coating of snow is possible Friday as a weak
front moves through.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
710 PM Update...A broken line of mostly light showers is
beginning to move into the area ahead of the approaching cold
front. The forcing is strong with a very strong wind field and
shear but instability is lacking so we have removed thunder from
the grids and no longer see any threat of severe thunderstorms.
That said, some showers could still produce fairly strong gusty
winds and we still expect strong widespread/synoptic winds
behind the front by the overnight period with gusts up to 45
mph.

Original Discussion...It's been difficult to develop any
convection this afternoon with very limited instability and huge
amounts of shear. Convection over southern PA helped to cut off
the increase of low level moisture and our dew points held in
the upper 40s and lower 50s. Still can't rule out a storm this
evening with the front, but it will be low topped and should be
isolated. Bigger concern is the synoptic winds which will
develop in the tight gradient as the upper low deepens. After
collaboration with PHI and CTP have added all of the NEPA
counties in the Advisory although wind speed should be less.
Resisted a warning simply because the criteria does not seem
reachable in the majority of the inhabited area. A few peaks in
the Catskills could see warning criteria wind.

Very limited lake effect snow showers in the cold air late
tonight with a limited fetch and very strong shear. Also, air is
quite dry behind the front so it will not be well seeded.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry air, shear, and unfavorable fetch will bring an end to the
snow showers early Thursday. Winds will still be ripping however
as the low bombs off New England. High pressure builds Thursday
for a cold night and lighter winds, but is followed quickly by
a weak wave and additional snow showers beginning late Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 pm update...

On Friday the northwest flow continues as a weak front drops
south. Limited moisture but up to an inch of snow is possible
during the day Friday. Temperatures will be mostly below
freezing. May have a hard time amounting to much on roads with
the warm air now and temps above freezing Thursday afternoon.
Greatest amounts on grassy surfaces. Amounts could of been more
if we had any snow on the ground.

Behind this widespread snow will be cold air advection. 850mb
temps fall to -22C but the low level flow is from 310 degrees.
Lake effect snow showers into Syracuse and the higher terrain
of the upper Susquehanna region Friday night and Saturday. The
lake effect will weaken Saturday afternoon as high pressure
builds in at the surface. Saturday highs only in the 20s.
Saturday night will be dry and cold. Some single digits east and
north to teens elsewhere.

Sunday the start of warmer air as the upper level trough moves
east and ridging and warm air advection starts. Sunday mostly
dry but a weak warm front moves east across upstate NY. Better
chances Sunday night and Monday. High temps around 40 Sunday
rise into the 50s for Monday and Tuesday.

Models closer on strong cold front Tuesday night. GFS still
slower and deeper but Euro trending that way. Cooler and still
unsettled Wednesday. With a progressive front should be able to
handle the rain Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broken line of mostly light showers will move across the area
this evening ahead of a cold front with the best chances for
rain being at KRME/KSYR where we've indicated tempo MVFR
cig/visby restrictions. Otherwise VFR this evening.

Behind the front, there will be strong and gusty west winds with
gusts over 40 knots possible overnight into early Thursday. It
will be mostly dry behind the front except for some snow showers
around KSYR. Cigs will tend to drop slightly by later tonight
with MVFR cigs later tonight into Friday for KSYR/KRME with low
end VFR elsewhere.

Strong winds will persist through midday Friday before
diminishing somewhat. Also, cigs lift heading into Friday
afternoon as well.

OUTLOOK...

Friday...Possible restrictions in snow showers.

Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Restrictions in rain and snow showers.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Flood Watch through Friday morning for NYZ009.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM/PCF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
227 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

NYZ009-021930-
Northern Oneida-
227 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072-021930-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-
Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-
Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
227 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.