Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
316 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Main forecast concerns are on shower and thunderstorm chances
today into tonight.

Currently watching a cluster of thunderstorms moving across west
central Wisconsin early this morning. KLUM (Menominee Wisconsin)
reported a wind gust to 50 kts early this morning on the back side
of the storms. This could have been a localized downburst. These
storms aren't very organized so not expecting any widespread wind
threat with these.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually
work east across the area this morning ahead of a weak shortwave
moving through. Will have to wait for CAPE to build late this
morning into this afternoon, then we may see some scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm redevelop over portions of
central Wisconsin. Further to the west, capping moves in at around
700 mb, effectively suppressing convection. A trough and frontal
boundary will then swing through the region tonight from the northwest
to southeast. Not expecting much activity with these features
across the local area, thanks to a dry sub cloud layer and fairly
weak forcing aloft. Northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan will be
directly under the main trough so these areas will likely see
some showers tonight and perhaps a rumble of thunder.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

A frontal boundary then stalls out across across central Iowa into
northern Illinois Sunday into Sunday night.  Meanwhile, high
pressure builds in from the north providing quiet weather for much
of the forecast area.  A few showers and storms are possible across
northeast Iowa into far southern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon into
early Sunday evening. Forecast models are showing some differences
for late Monday night through the Tuesday. The GFS and Canadian are
bringing showers and storms through the region as a trough meanders
through the Upper Mississippi River Valley.  The ECMWF is much
slower and keeps the surface high in place and doesn't build nearly
as much instability over the area. Will continue to lean toward a
model consensus blend for precipitation chances, but if the ECMWF
comes more in line with the GFS and Canadian, precipitation
chances will be increased. So, what was looking like a potentially
dry Fourth of July may now be more on the wet side. Keep a close
eye on the forecast as this is subject to change. A ridge then
builds across the western into the central CONUS from mid to late
week. We could see finally see some warmer temperatures move back
into the region. The ECMWF is the most aggressive in bringing
these warmer temperatures back into the area with highs possibly
climbing into the mid and upper 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light
westerly flow should persist into Saturday morning. Although drier
air will gradually filter into the area, a bit of MVFR
ceilings/visibility could not be ruled out early Saturday
morning. However, with clouds also possibly lingering across the
area, confidence in fog formation is not high, but will need to be
watched. Diurnal VFR cumulus may develop along with some high
clouds on Saturday in association with a series of upper level
disturbances. Westerly winds will shift southerly Saturday night
ahead of a weak approaching cold front.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...JM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
424 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-011200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
424 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible today into this evening. Some
storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There are chances for thunderstorms over northeast Iowa and far
southwest Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening. A couple of
storms could become strong.

There are additional chances for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
through Thursday. It is too early to discern if there would be a
severe weather threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Wetenkamp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

MNZ087-010615-
Olmsted-
1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OLMSTED COUNTY...

At 1240 AM CDT, a thunderstorm was located near Rochester, moving
east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Eyota around 105 AM CDT.
  Dover around 115 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Viola, Chester, Ringe,
County Roads 9 And 10 and I 90 Exit 229.

Occasional cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. If you are
outdoors, seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle until the
storm passes.

LAT...LON 4401 9249 4413 9247 4407 9209 4393 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 278DEG 16KT 4403 9240

Wetenkamp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
236 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

WIZ032-033-010815-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-
236 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN BUFFALO AND
NORTHWESTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 234 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Altoona to 7 miles northwest of
Modena. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

Brief wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Modena around 300 AM CDT.
  Alma and Strum around 315 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Eleva, Gilmanton,
Cream, Mondovi Airfield and County Roads F And K K.

Occasional cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. If you are
outdoors, seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle until the
storms pass.

LAT...LON 4450 9205 4460 9193 4460 9121 4428 9182
      4448 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 324DEG 15KT 4477 9137 4450 9194

Wetenkamp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

WIZ032>034-010930-
Buffalo-Jackson-Trempealeau-
354 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUFFALO...WEST CENTRAL JACKSON AND
TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

Scattered thunderstorms will move across the area through 5 AM this
morning.

Brief wind gusts to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arcadia, Whitehall, Alma, Blair, Independence, Buffalo City, Fountain
City, Modena, Dodge, Franklin, Ettrick, Taylor, Waumandee, Cochrane,
Gilmanton, Pigeon Falls, Nelson, Montana, Chimney Rock and Highway 88
And County O.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. If you are
outdoors, seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4446 9205 4455 9120 4418 9100 4412 9171
      4413 9175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0851Z 297DEG 23KT 4434 9144

Wetenkamp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
413 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

WIZ033-034-010945-
Jackson-Trempealeau-
413 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL JACKSON AND EAST
CENTRAL TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 412 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Whitehall,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail is possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Blair around 425 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Taylor, Pigeon Falls
and Square Bluff.

If you are outdoors, seek a safe shelter inside a building or
vehicle until the storm passes.

LAT...LON 4433 9142 4445 9135 4441 9111 4421 9114
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 297DEG 22KT 4434 9130

Wetenkamp