Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
633 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Obvious concern in short term is how storm threat this evening plays
out. Lots of questions to answer with only a few hours potentially
to decipher outcome.

Quasi-zonal flow across northern tier of U.S. with several short
waves moving with moderate mid-level flow. Short wave in question
for tonight is slowly working across Minnesota. As of 19Z abundant
convection still exists in area, lingering from early morning
system. This continues to complicate outcome.

Higher mixed layer CAPE pool of 1500-2500 J/Kg resides mainly west
of the area while gradient region in our forecast area. Meanwhile,
best shear, which is highest in 0-3km layer, has been advecting east
today, and is strongest over Wisconsin areas. Low level shear /0-
1km/ is respectable as well, but again, is highest in Wisconsin.

Mesoscale models continue to blossom convection from central/eastern
Iowa into southern Wisconsin this afternoon where psuedo warm front
exists along with slightly better moisture advection. These storms
have more potential for large hail and/or damaging wind, along with
more heavy rain. We've already seen fairly decent rainfall
efficiencies with storms. Would expect watch to be issued south
first.

Further north, less cape to work with, but closer to short wave may
produce slightly higher localized low-level shear. Latest update to
Day 1 SPC outlook brought tornado risk northward which seems
reasonable, albeit still conditional. While storms may not be as
strong in western and north central Wisconsin as cold front
approaches, there is a potential for brief tornado development.
Confidence is low with any of these scenarios but there is potential
there. Again - bears watching and be alert for.

As wave progresses, storm activity should push east and south by
late evening leading to quiet overnight and quiet spell for most of
Thursday. Boundary with higher precipitable water levels will be
shunted just to the south of the area, close enough though to be a
player for late week.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night through Wednesday
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Weather will remain active at times in outer forecast periods,
although sensible storm threat shouldn't be too strong or severe.

Next upstream short wave in flow will begin to affect weather
potentially already Thursday night with some return flow. Given
proximity of boundary just south of the area, could see convection
break out and spread back north into the area going into Friday
morning as wave moves through. Higher severe weather risk should
remain south and east of the area though where better thermodynamics
will exist.

Meanwhile medium range guidance suggests yet another short wave
trough will drop into Great Lakes region as northwest flow becomes a
bit more established. This could keep us unsettled for parts of the
area this weekend with mainly diurnal showers and storms.

More disagreement in models as you get into Sunday and Monday time
frame. While upper ridge starts to form, some guidance drops a short
wave through corn belt bringing an enhanced storm threat, but
otherwise warming trend on tap.

It's early yet, but outlook for Fourth of July holiday could be
quiet with short range upper ridge and boundary south of the area.
Lowered some guidance rain chances here based on trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Two areas of ongoing convection early this evening. The first was
ahead of the cold front over northeast Iowa into southwest
Wisconsin that will stay south of both airports. The second was
ahead of the area of low pressure that was over east central
Minnesota. This activity has the potential to impact both airports
as it slides east/southeast this evening and will include this
possibility in both forecasts. Once this activity moves through,
it should be quiet for the remainder of the period. The winds will
swing around to the west once the cold front goes through with
speeds generally around 10 knots or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Through This Evening
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Rainfall overnight was in 1-2" range in parts of the area,
especially northeast Iowa. Rivers doing pretty good though.

Storms should be fairly progressive tonight but will have to watch
for repeat areas that could produce some localized issues.  Once
storms exit area later this evening, heavy rainfall threat much
lower.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Shea
LONG TERM...Shea
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Shea

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
302 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-291100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
302 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa...and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected through mid evening.

Across northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin storms may be severe
at times with large hail, damaging wind, heavy rain, and the
potential for isolated tornadoes.

From southeast Minnesota into western and north central Wisconsin,
storms are expected to expand across the area with the potential for
hail and isolated tornadoes.

All this storm activity is expected to be south and east of the area
by 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Independence Day

There will be periodic storm chances from Thursday night through
Monday. It is too early to discern if there would be a severe
threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Aegerter/Shea

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
720 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N MAYNARD             42.82N 91.88W
06/28/2017                   FAYETTE            IA   PUBLIC

            LITTLE VOLGA RIVER FLOWING OVER 130TH ST.

&&

CJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
726 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LIVINGSTON              42.90N 90.43W
06/28/2017                   GRANT              WI   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD E.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CJA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
737 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

IAZ030-WIZ061-290130-
Clayton-Grant-
737 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLAYTON AND
SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTIES...

At 735 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Edgewood to near Belmont. Movement
was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Platteville, Lancaster, Guttenberg, Cuba City, Strawberry Point,
Hazel Green, Dickeyville, Cassville, Edgewood, Georgetown, Beetown,
Arthur, Potosi, Livingston, Ellenboro, Glen Haven, Tennyson, Union,
North Buena Vista and Garber.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Iowa...and southwestern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4254 9064 4264 9071 4268 9090 4265 9090
      4264 9153 4282 9153 4293 9043 4251 9042
      4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 251DEG 50KT 4269 9132 4272 9040

JAM